Effects of societal learning and learning relaxation on the expected outbreak size in a stochastic epidemic model.

<p>Effects of societal learning and learning relaxation on the expected outbreak size in a stochastic epidemic model.</p

Plot of standardized residuals vs. leverage for nine observations used in the statistical model.

<div><p>One point (corresponding to week 8, in the upper right hand corner of the plot) exhibits high leverage and falls outside the Cook's distance contour at <i>C</i> = 1.</p> <p>As this point may have unduly influenced the estimated model, the full and reduced models were re-fit to the data excluding this point.</p></div

Relationship between the average latent period (x-axis) and average total outbreak size in simulations (y-axis).

<div><p>Latent period is log₂ transformed (to illustrate a wide range of possible values) and ranges from 1 d to 4096 d (∼11 y).</p> <p>The approximate location of SARS is indicated by the arrow.</p></div

(A) Basic S-E-I-R compartmental model of infectious disease, in which outbreak dynamics are represented by the number of individuals in four compartments corresponding to susceptible, exposed, infectious, and removed (or recovered) individuals.

<div><p>The rate at which individuals move from susceptible to exposed is according to mass-action dynamics with proportionality constant <i>α</i>.</p> <p>Individuals move from exposed to infectious at rate <i>η</i> and from infectious to removed at rate <i>γ</i>.</p> <p>(B) By assuming that the number of susceptible individuals is approximately constant (an appropriate approximation for outbreaks in which prevalence is never a large fraction of the total population) we introduce the new variable β = α<i>S</i> and reduce the four-compartment S-E-I-R model to a two-compartment model, designated here by the state variables <i>X</i> and <i>Y</i>. </p></div

Average daily removal rate of infectious individuals (γ) increased consistently for eight weeks following the initial outbreak of SARS in Singapore in 2003.

<div><p>Average infectious period obtained as <i>g</i> = 1/γ.</p> <p>Error bars are 95% confidence intervals calculated from the t-distribution given the mean and standard deviation of observed intervals between onset of clinical symptoms and removal.</p> <p>Confidence intervals are not provided for week 0, where only one case was observed (so zero degrees of freedom), or week 8, where the combination of high standard deviation in the observed interval (s.d.: 1.9) and few degrees of freedom (d.f.: 5) results in a nonsensical confidence interval that includes zero and negative values.</p></div

Age-Related Changes in the Cardiometabolic Profiles in Singapore Resident Adult Population: Findings from the National Health Survey 2010

<div><p>We describe the centile trends of the blood pressure, glycemia and lipid profiles as well as renal function of a representative population who participated in the Singapore National Health Survey in 2010. Representative survey population was sampled in two phases, first using geographical/ residential dwelling type stratification, followed up ethnicity. 2,407 survey participants without any self-reported medical or medication history for diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidemia were included in this analysis. All biochemistry analyses were performed on Roche platforms. After excluding outliers using Tukey's criteria, the results of the remaining participants were subjected to lambda-mu-sigma (LMS) analysis. In men, systolic blood pressure increased linearly with age. By contrast, an upward inflection around late 40s was seen in women. The diastolic blood pressure was highest in men in the late 30s-50s age group, and in women in the late 50s-60s age group. All glycemia-related parameters, i.e. fasting and 2-hour plasma glucose and HbA1c concentrations increased with age, although the rate of increase differed between the tests. Total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol concentrations increased with age, which became attenuated between the early 30s and late 50s in men, and declined thereafter. In women, total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol concentrations gradually increased with age until late 30s, when there is an upward inflection, plateauing after late 50s. Our findings indicate that diagnostic performance of laboratory tests for diabetes may be age-sensitive. Unfavourable age-related cardiovascular risk profiles suggest that the burden of cardiovascular disease in this population will increase with aging population.</p></div

The age distribution of the subjects included in the analysis.

<p>The age distribution of the subjects included in the analysis.</p

The average and standard deviation of the blood pressure, glycemia and lipid profiles as well as renal function of the male and female subjects.

<p>The average and standard deviation of the blood pressure, glycemia and lipid profiles as well as renal function of the male and female subjects.</p

Estimation results using the weekly excess influenza case data in 2009 over the weekly average of 2004-2008 by reporting date during weeks 5–9 for Mexico City and during weeks 5-14 for all of Mexico.

1<p>Denoting turning point during week 7 (February 15–21).</p>2<p>Denoting turning point during week 9 (March 1–7).</p><p>*max(0, lower bound).</p><p>Note that the cumulative case number is rounded off to the nearest integer. The actual cumulative excess number K for weeks 5–9 in Mexico City is 100 and for weeks 5–14 is 226 in all of Mexico. R₀ was computed using the mean estimated generation interval of T = 1.91 days (95% CI: 1.30–2.71), which was estimated from early Mexico novel H1N1 data in La Gloria before April 30, 2009 <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0023853#pone.0023853-Fraser1" target="_blank">[3]</a>.</p

Chronological timelines of the early 2009 pH1N1 epidemic in Mexico.

<p>Chronological timelines of the early 2009 pH1N1 epidemic in Mexico.</p