A multi-century perspective of the Sala mega-fire : understanding risks for future large fires in Sweden

In the summer of 2014, the Sala municipality in central Sweden registered the largest fire in modern Swedish history. The circumstances under which the fire took place highlight the complex interactions between the ignition as well as the spread of fire, and human activities along with weather. Although the role of human activities and climate are of critical importance in shaping modern fire activity, their joint effects remain largely unstudied in Northern Europe. The main aim of this thesis was to investigate the impact of landscape properties (natural and human-related) and climate patterns on forest fires at different spatial and temporal scales. Dendrochronological study (Paper II) suggested that in the past the lack of major firebreaks, homogenization of forests due to its long-term management, and a long period without fires might have contributed to the occurrence of the exceptionally large 2014 mega-fire in Sala. A study of modern fire activity (Paper I) showed that a combination of human-related ignitions, weather conditions controlling fire spread, and vegetation composition are the main drivers of fire activity in Sweden. At the scale of the European boreal zone (Paper IV), forest fire activity remains strongly connected to the annual climate variability. Predictions of the future area burned in Sweden (Paper III) indicated that changes in climate would lead to an increase in area burned, with changes in vegetation leading either to further increase or mitigation of this increase to a certain degree

Climate drove the fire cycle and humans influenced fire occurrence in the East European boreal forest

Understanding long-term forest fire histories of boreal landscapes is instrumental for parameterizing climate-fire interactions and the role of humans affecting natural fire regimes. The eastern sections of the European boreal zone currently lack a network of annually resolved and centuries-long forest fire histories. To fill in this knowledge gap, we dendrochronologically reconstructed the 600-year fire history of a middle boreal pine-dominated landscape of the southern part of the Republic of Komi, Russia. We combined the reconstruction of fire cycle (FC) and fire occurrence with the data on the village establishment and climate proxies and discussed the relative contribution of climate versus human land use in shaping historic fire regimes. Over the 1340-1610 ce period, the territory had a FC of 66 years (with the 90% confidence envelope of 56.8 and 78.6 years). Fire activity increased during the 1620-1730 ce period, with the FC reaching 32 years (31.0-34.7 years). Between 1740-1950, the FC increased to 47 years (41.9-52.0). The most recent period, 1960-2010, marks FC's historic maximum, with the mean of 153 years (102.5-270.3). Establishment of the villages, often as small harbors on the Pechora River, was associated with a non-significant increase in fire occurrence in the sites nearest the villages (p = 0.07-0.20). We, however, observed a temporal association between village establishment and fire occurrence at the scale of the whole studied landscape. There was no positive association between the former and the FC. In fact, we documented a decline in the area burned, following the wave of village establishment during the second half of the 1600s and the first half of the 1700s. The lack of association between the dynamics of FC and the dates of village establishments, and the significant association between large fire years and the early and latewood pine chronologies, used as historic drought proxy, indirectly suggests that the climate was the primary control of the landscape-level FCs in the studied forests. Pine-dominated forests of the Komi Republic may hold a unique position as the ecosystem with the shortest history of human-related shifts in fire cycles across the European boreal region

Marginal imprint of human land use upon fire history in a mire-dominated boreal landscape of the Veps Highland, North-West Russia

Dendrochronological reconstructions inform us about historical climate-fire-human interactions, providing a means to calibrate projections of future fire hazard. Most of these reconstructions, however, have been developed in landscapes with a considerable proportion of xeric sites that could potentially inflate our estimates of the historic levels of fire activity. We provide a 420-year long reconstruction of fires in a mire-dominated landscape of the Veps Nature Park, North-West Russia. The area has mostly escaped large-scale forestry operations in the past and is an example of pristine mid-boreal vegetation with a high (approximately 30% for the area studied) proportion of waterlogged areas with ombrotropic mires. The historical fire cycle was 91.4 years (90% confidence intervals, CI 66.2-137.6 years) over the 1580-1720 period, decreasing to 35.9 (CI 28.1-47.6 years) between 1730 and 1770, and then increasing again to 122.7 years (CI 91.0-178.0 years) over the 1780-2000 period. Early season fires dominated over late season fires during the reconstruction period. We documented a higher fire activity period between 1730 and 1780, resulting from the increase in early season fires. This period coincided with one of the largest multi-decadal declines in the reconstructed spring precipitation since 1600 CE, although we found no significant relationship between fire and precipitation over the whole reconstructed period. The nine largest fire years were associated with negative summer precipitation and positive summer temperature anomalies over the study region. Land-use history of the area did not appear to have an effect on historical fire dynamics. Modern (1996-2016) fire records indicate a regional fire cycle of ~ 1300 years, featuring a pronounced pattern with early (April-May) and late (July-September) season fires. The uniform fire cycle in the area since 1780, occurrence of nine largest fire years during years with spring-summer droughts, and low ignition frequencies over the last 420 years (0.005 to 0.037 ignitions per year and km2) suggest that the fire regime of the Veps Highland remained largely natural until the onset of the 20th century

Global Protein Demand, Marine Fish Production and Trade Flows in the World of 2050

Economic drivers of change, such as changes in demand and fishing technology, are as important for the future state of fish stocks as factors influencing ecological processes (Quaas et al. 2016) . Fish and seafood (FaS) are among the most globalized commodities, and markets will continue to globalize in the coming decades. Constantly improving fishing technology may lead to increasing fishing pressure unless management effectiveness is significantly improved. To take world-market interactions into account, we quantify a global demand system for wild-caught FaS, resolved at the large marine ecosystem (LME) scale, using FAO Fishstat data. Demand for domestically caught FaS and FaS imports further depends on population size, per-capita incomes, and supply of other protein-rich food (as substitutes for FaS). Based on scenarios for population and income developments, we use the estimated demand system to derive scenarios of future FaS demand. We feed these scenarios into a global bio-economic model to study the effects of FaS consumption levels allocated by globalized markets on catches and stock development. The fisheries model provides biomass development scenarios per functional group taking into account predator-prey interactions in a stylized fashion. We analyze the effect of improving fisheries management, and the scope of expanding the supply of farmed fish for relieving the pressure on wild capture fisheries. Preliminary results suggest that this scope is limited, as farmed FaS is only an imperfect substitute for wild capture fisheries, in particular for the more wealthy consumers, who are likely to grow in number in the coming decades.Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, held July 11-15, 2016 at Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center (AECC), Aberdeen, Scotland, UK

Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification

Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems

A 500-year history of forest fires in Sala area, central Sweden, shows the earliest known onset of fire suppression in Scandinavia

The Sala fire in the Vastmanland County of central Sweden that burned about 14,000 ha in 2014 has been the largest fire recorded in the modern history of Sweden. To understand the long-term fire history of this area, we dendrochronologically dated fire scars on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees (live and deadwood) to reconstruct the fire cycle and fire occurrence in the area affected by the 2014 fire. We identified 64 fire years, using a total of 378 pine samples. The earliest reconstructed fire dated back to 1113 AD. The spatial reconstruction extended over the period of 1480-2018 AD. Lower levels of fire activity (fire cycle, FC = 43 years, with the central 90% of the distribution limited by 35 to 57 years) dominated in the earlier period (1480-1690 AD) that was followed by a strong decrease in fire activity since 1700 (FC = 403 years, with 90% of the distribution being within 149 to 7308 years), with a fire-free period between 1756 and 2014. Sala area, therefore, features the earliest known onset of fire suppression in Scandinavia. The high demand for timber during the peak in mining activities in the study area around the 1700-1800s, accompanied by passive fire suppression policies, were possibly the main drivers of the decline in fire activity. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) did not show significant departures in the drought proxy during the ten years with the largest area burned between 1480 and1690. It is unclear whether the result is due to the relatively small area sampled or an indication that human controls of fires dominated during that period. However, significant departures during the following period with low fire activity (1700-1756), which just preceded the last fire-free period, suggested that the climate became an increasingly important driver of fire during the onset of the suppression period. We speculate that the lack of major firebreaks, the homogenization of forests, and the lack of burned areas with low fuel loads might contribute to the occurrence of the exceptionally large 2014 fire in Sala

Effects of human-related and biotic landscape features on the occurrence and size of modern forest fires in Sweden

The influence of landscape features on the occurrence and size of forest fires in Northern Europe has not been well-studied. In this paper, we analyzed the impact of human-related landscape properties (road and human population density), biotic features (amount of firebreak area and vegetation zone) and fire weather indices (Buildup Index, BUI and Initial Spread Index, ISI) on the occurrence and size of forest fires in Sweden from 1998 to 2017. To analyze the environmental controls of fire occurrence and fire size under different levels of climatological fire hazard, we divided the data into two subsets: (1) large fire years (LFY), defined as the years with the total amount of burned area being higher than the dataset-wide average (2002, 2003, 2006, 2008 and 2014), and (2) the remaining years (nLFY). Our analytical approach was based on spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). Models built on both LFY and nLFY subsets suggested a strong human influence on fire occurrence: road density, the number of firebreaks, and population density, all were positively associated with fire occurrence, suggesting an important role of human-related ignitions. The southernmost vegetation zones in Sweden (boreo-nemoral and nemoral) exhibited the highest fire occurrence (LFY), a pattern potentially related to a higher population density in combination with weather more conducive for fires in this part of the country. The patterns that emerged from the fire size models pointed to the climate as the main factor controlling fire size, irrespective of the type of years analyzed. Road density, number of firebreaks and population density showed a negative association with fire size, possibly indicating higher efficiency of fire suppression in the areas with higher human presence. Vegetation zones were selected as an informative predictor, indicating that the fire activity varies across the zones, with those in mid-Sweden being the most prone to large events. The ISI correlated strongly and positively with fire size in both subsets (LFY and nLFY), pointing to the role of weather conditions favorable for fire spread, primarily that of surface fires. The BUI showed a weak negative correlation to fire size, indicating that dryness of organic horizon, specifically its deeper layers, is less relevant for predicting fire size. Contemporary fire activity in Sweden is driven by a combination of human-related ignitions, and weather conditions controlling fire spread with a moderate effect of vegetation composition and generally efficient fire suppression. Human-related landscape features (roads and population density) play a major role in shaping ignition patterns, whereas climate (ISI) and vegetation properties appear informative as predictors of fire size, even under a modern fire suppression effort

Did forest fires maintain mixed oak forests in southern Scandinavia? A dendrochronological speculation

In northern Europe, a long history of human exploitation effectively eliminated legacies of natural disturbances in mixed oak forests and we currently lack understanding of the role of natural disturbance factors in affecting oak regeneration into the forest canopies. We compiled dendrochronological, observational and paleochronological data from Southern Sweden to discuss the role of forest fires in oak (Quercus spp.) dynamics. We analyzed oak age structure and its growth dynamics in six southern Swedish forests, which experienced fires between 42 and 158 years prior to our sampling. Extending our analysis over longer time frames, we studied the relationship between sediment charcoal and oak pollen in an area of south-eastern Sweden, where oak has been a common canopy species. In three of the study sites, forest fires resulted in increased oak regeneration. Although fires were generally not associated with a wave of growth releases in surviving trees, the mean basal area growth rate of oaks increased by a range of 108% to 176%, following the fires. The overall pattern indicated that historical fires in oak-dominated forests were of low severity, did not kill canopy oaks, and yet provided a window of regeneration opportunities for that species. Post-fire sprouting of oak and an increase in oak seedling densities following modern prescribed fires are consistent with this explanation. Consistent with this conclusion were significant positive correlations between charcoal concentration and the oak pollen percentage in a site in southeastern Sweden. We discuss the co-occurrence of oak and pine in the historical southern Swedish landscape, as a possible analogy to eastern North American oak-pine forests. Modern conservation policies aimed at the preservation of oak in the southern Swedish landscape should consider the use of low severity fires to maintain natural oak regeneration