NMDB database and global survey method

The method of a global survey developed in the 1970s allows using a world-wide network of neutron monitor stations as a single multidirectional device. Wherein, receiving characteristics of each device, which reflects their geometries and geographical positions, are taken into account. Such an approach makes it possible to define the first two angular moments of the distribution function of cosmic rays in the interplanetary space at each hour of observation. With the creation in 2008/2009 and subsequent development of an international database of neutron monitors NMDB, for the first time it appeared an opportunity to use the global survey method in real-time mode. Such a situation creates a unique possibility to use the results not only for scienti- fic researches but also for space weather forecasting. To use the data of the world-wide network of neutron monitors it is necessary to carry preliminary preparations. Thereby, in the current work, the main attention is attracted to a solution to some practical questions that arise when using the NMDB in real-time

NMDB and space weather forecasting

From the creation of NMDB in 2007 and through the growth in the number of stations and the data accumulation, the ShICRA SB RAS group continuously have used its facilities. For the last years we have created a method for short-term forecasting of intense geomagnetic storms with an advance time 1-2 days. The probability of forecasting is around 80%. We have reported about the method in the previous NMDB: virtual symposium on cosmic ray studies with neutron detectors in 2020. The method is based on the global survey method that was developed in Yakutsk in 1960s and uses the world network of neutron monitors as a single multidirectional device. The method is intended to estimate hourly dynamics of cosmic ray anisotropy in free-space. Note that only with the NMDB creation we managed to implement it in real time mode. Now we started work on creating another method for space weather forecasting by measurements of cosmic ray fluctuations. For this purpose, we use 1-min data of NMDB. In the current report we present the first results of our investigation on forecasting of intense geomagnetic storms with Dst < -50 nT. The results obtained indicate the possibility of developing and implementing in real time a method for predicting strong geophysical manifestations of space weather on the basis of ground-based cosmic ray measurements

Cosmic ray angular distribution dynamics during Forbush decrease in 3-4 November 2021

On November 3-4, 2021, there was a coronal ejection of the solar mass into the interplanetary medium. According to direct observations of the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind, the ejection was accompanied by a magnetic cloud. During the event, neutron monitors of the NMDB network registered a two-stage Forbush decrease with a total amplitude of up to 15%. A preliminary analysis of the NMDB data shows that the first step was due to the cosmic ray decrease behind the shock wave front, while the second step was due to the cosmic ray anisotropy formed in the magnetic cloud. This work was undertaken to study the dynamics of the angular distribution of cosmic rays in this event. The cosmic ray distribution was determined using the global survey method developed at the ShICRA in the 1960s. The method makes it possible to use the worldwide network of neutron monitors as a single multidirectional instrument and to determine the hourly dynamics of CR distribution. It is shown that unidirectional and bidirectional anisotropies of significant amplitude are observed inside the magnetic cloud. The results obtained are discussed in the framework of modern theories of the formation of magnetic clouds. The temporal dynamics of the spatial-angular distribution of cosmic rays during the Forbush decrease on November 3–4, 2021 was determined. The presence of cosmic ray anisotropy with an amplitude comparable to the magnitude of the density decrease itself was found

About the Motion Influence on a Signal with Hyperbolic Frequency Modulation

В данной статье рассмотрено влияние эффекта Доплера на сигнал с гиперболической частотной модуляцией. Проведен анализ эхо-сигнала на приемнике после отражения от цели, движущейся с постоянной скоростью под некоторым произвольным курсовым углом относительно гидроакустической станцииThis article discusses the Doppler effect influence on a signal with hyperbolic frequency modulation. An echo signal analysis at the receiver after reflection from a target moving at a constant speed at some arbitrary heading angle relative to the hydroacoustic station was carried ou

Second asymptomatic carotid surgery trial (ACST-2) : a randomised comparison of carotid artery stenting versus carotid endarterectomy

Background: Among asymptomatic patients with severe carotid artery stenosis but no recent stroke or transient cerebral ischaemia, either carotid artery stenting (CAS) or carotid endarterectomy (CEA) can restore patency and reduce long-term stroke risks. However, from recent national registry data, each option causes about 1% procedural risk of disabling stroke or death. Comparison of their long-term protective effects requires large-scale randomised evidence. Methods: ACST-2 is an international multicentre randomised trial of CAS versus CEA among asymptomatic patients with severe stenosis thought to require intervention, interpreted with all other relevant trials. Patients were eligible if they had severe unilateral or bilateral carotid artery stenosis and both doctor and patient agreed that a carotid procedure should be undertaken, but they were substantially uncertain which one to choose. Patients were randomly allocated to CAS or CEA and followed up at 1 month and then annually, for a mean 5 years. Procedural events were those within 30 days of the intervention. Intention-to-treat analyses are provided. Analyses including procedural hazards use tabular methods. Analyses and meta-analyses of non-procedural strokes use Kaplan-Meier and log-rank methods. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN21144362. Findings: Between Jan 15, 2008, and Dec 31, 2020, 3625 patients in 130 centres were randomly allocated, 1811 to CAS and 1814 to CEA, with good compliance, good medical therapy and a mean 5 years of follow-up. Overall, 1% had disabling stroke or death procedurally (15 allocated to CAS and 18 to CEA) and 2% had non-disabling procedural stroke (48 allocated to CAS and 29 to CEA). Kaplan-Meier estimates of 5-year non-procedural stroke were 2·5% in each group for fatal or disabling stroke, and 5·3% with CAS versus 4·5% with CEA for any stroke (rate ratio [RR] 1·16, 95% CI 0·86-1·57; p=0·33). Combining RRs for any non-procedural stroke in all CAS versus CEA trials, the RR was similar in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients (overall RR 1·11, 95% CI 0·91-1·32; p=0·21). Interpretation: Serious complications are similarly uncommon after competent CAS and CEA, and the long-term effects of these two carotid artery procedures on fatal or disabling stroke are comparable