Blowin\u27 in the wind: Short-term weather and belief in anthropogenic climate change.

Abstract A series of polls provides new tests for how weather influences public beliefs about climate change. Statewide data from 5000 random-sample telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over 2.5 yr (2010-12) are merged with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records. The surveys carry a question designed around scientific consensus statements that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively, respondents can state that climate change is not happening, or that it is happening but mainly for natural reasons. Belief that humans are changing the climate is predicted by temperature anomalies on the interview day and the previous day, controlling for season, survey, and individual characteristics. Temperature effects concentrate among one subgroup, however: individuals who identify themselves as independent, rather than aligned with a political party. Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not to agree. Although temperature effects are sharpest for just a 2-day window, positive effects are seen for longer windows as well. As future climate change shifts the distribution of anomalies and extremes, this will first affect beliefs among unaligned voters

Arctic warming and your weather: Public belief in the connection

Will Arctic warming affect mid-latitude weather? Many researchers think so, and have addressed this question through scientific articles and news media. Much of the public accepts such a connection as well. Across three New Hampshire surveys with more than 1500 interviews, 60% of respondents say they think future Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. Arctic/weather responses changed little after Superstorm Sandy brushed the region, but exhibit consistently strong partisan divisions that grow wider with education. Belief in an Arctic/weather connection also varies, in a nonlinear pattern, with the temperature anomaly around day of interview. Interviewed on unseasonably warm or cool days, respondents are more likely to think that Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. This unscientific response seems to mirror the scientific discussion about extremes

Was December Warm? Family, Politics, and Recollections of Weather

In 2015 New Hampshire experienced its warmest December on record. The temperature exceeded twentieth century average temperatures by a wider margin than for any month in historical records dating back to 1895. In February 2016, as part of an ongoing study of environmental perceptions, the Granite State Poll asked state residents whether they thought the recent December had been generally colder, warmer, or about average for that month. Only 63 percent remembered it had been above average. The remainder of the winter set a new warmth record as well, so in April 2016 another Granite State Poll asked residents about the season as a whole. This time, 73 percent accurately recalled recent warmth. Political independents and Tea Party supporters, as well as people who do not believe that humans are changing the climate, were less likely to think temperatures had been warm. These results suggest that, even for such immediate phenomena as recent local weather, climate-change beliefs exert some influence on perceptions

Trends and Variability in Localized Precipitation Around Kibale National Park, Uganda, Africa

Our objective was to understand and describe local spatial and temporal variability in precipitation around Kibale National Park, a tropical forest area of high conservation value. Continental or regional-scale trends are often relied upon to make policy and management decisions, but these analyses are often at too coarse a resolution to capture important variability at a finer scale where management actions operate. Monthly rainfall data derived from ten long-term station records (1941-1975) were used to evaluate local spatiotemporal variability in seasonal and annual rainfall for the area surrounding Kibale National Park. The magnitude, direction and significance of trends in seasonal and annual rainfall within the area surrounding the park were identified using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. The standardized precipitation index was calculated at 3- and 12-month periods to identify areas of relative wetness or dryness. Analysis of annual trends and precipitation indices indicated that patterns in annual time series do not reflect the direction and magnitude of seasonal trends nor the spatial variability in intra-annual rainfall at the local scale. Significant negative trends in the seasonal long rains, following dry season and short rains were identified at stations west of Kibale, while significant positive trends in the seasonal short rains occurred at stations north of the park. Stations along the western park boundary tended to have more years in which the two dry seasons were abnormally dry than those stations located further from the park

New Hampshire Coastal Flood Risk Summary Part 1: Science

The New Hampshire Coastal Flood Risk Summary – Part 1: Science provides a synthesis of the state of the science relevant to coastal flood risks in New Hampshire. Specifically, this document provides updated projections of sea-level rise, coastal storms, groundwater rise, precipitation, and freshwater flooding for coastal New Hampshire. This information is intended to serve as the scientific foundation for the companion New Hampshire Coastal Flood Risk Summary - Part II: Guidance for Using Scientific Projections and is intended to inform coastal land use planning and decision-making

Patterns and Perceptions of Climate Change in a Biodiversity Conservation Hotspot

Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management

Blowin’ in the wind: Short-term weather and belief in anthropogenic climate change

A series of polls provides new tests for how weather influences public beliefs about climate change. Statewide data from 5000 random-sample telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over 2.5 yr (2010–12) are merged with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records. The surveys carry a question designed around scientific consensus statements that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively, respondents can state that climate change is not happening, or that it is happening but mainly for natural reasons. Belief that humans are changing the climate is predicted by temperature anomalies on the interview day and the previous day, controlling for season, survey, and individual characteristics. Temperature effects concentrate among one subgroup, however: individuals who identify themselves as independent, rather than aligned with a political party. Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not to agree. Although temperature effects are sharpest for just a 2-day window, positive effects are seen for longer windows as well. As future climate change shifts the distribution of anomalies and extremes, this will first affect beliefs among unaligned voters