Requested, Recommended and Allowed Returns to Equity: Serendipity or Substance

R. Charles Moyer is Professor of Finance and Chairman of the Area of Finance in the College of Business Administration. Texas Tech University. Raymond E. Spudeck is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance, College of Commerce and lndlustry at the University of Wyoming. David B. Cox is an Instructor in the Area of Finance in the College of Business Administration at Texas Tech University

Forecasting The Daily Federal Funds Rate

This paper compares two alternative one-day-ahead forecasts of tomorrow\u27s federal funds rate. The first forecast is a simple random walk forecast in which the forecast of tomorrow\u27s federal funds rate is taken to be today\u27s federal funds rate. The second forecast is an ARIMA model forecast that was allowed to vary with changes in the Federal Reserve System\u27s operating procedures. These two forecasts are compared in terms of their general forecast accuracy and the decision support they provide to a financial institution hypothesized to be borrowing $7 million a week in the federal funds market. Even in cases felt to be most favorable to the ARIMA forecasts, the degree of forecast accuracy and decision support superiority of the ARIMA forecasts is found to be quite small