What can we learn from indirect estimations on mortality in Mongolia, 1969-1989?

The closure of Mongolia to international community during the 20th century resulted in a dearth of available data and analytic demographic studies. In the absence of mortality analysis during the socialist period, this paper proposes the use of indirect census-based techniques to estimate mortality levels and trends of the last two socialist decades (1969-89). Due to census data quality and choice of model life table, results are not homogeneous. The respective effects of these two components are discussed in order to understand the results. However, despite these shortcomings, it is shown that during the last socialist decades in Mongolia, the health conditions of the population deteriorated. The Mongolian pattern is relatively similar to the situation documented for the ex-socialist republics. Causes to this similarity are discussed.census data, intercensal estimates, Mongolia, mortality measurement, mortality trends, socialist period

Systèmes familiaux et reproduction en Asie : regard sur la Chine et le Japon préindustriels

À partir de travaux récents menés en démographie historique, l’auteur analyse les implications des systèmes familiaux chinois et japonais en matière de reproduction, en faisant intervenir des éléments structurels et institutionnels liés à la culture. Dépassant les considérations socio-économiques (sans les effacer), cette démarche permet de dresser une démographie différentielle plus fine qui éclaire mieux les comportements humains. Face aux changements dans les conditions socio-économiques, les habitudes de corésidence et de succession de la famille souche japonaise impliquent des comportements reproducteurs différents de ceux qui sont façonnés par les ménages élargis chinois. Néanmoins, un fond culturel commun fait apparaître des stratégies intrafamiliales qui privilégient les intérêts du ménage au détriment de ceux des individus. La génération, le genre et les relations de parenté déterminent fortement les événements jalonnant la vie reproductive de chaque membre. Un grand nombre de stratégies familiales se mettent en place à partir de la culture et façonnent les comportements démographiques individuels.Based on recent studies in historical demography, the author examines the reproductive implications of Chinese and Japanese family systems, in focusing on structural and institutional elements related to culture. This approach goes beyond socioeconomic considerations (while also dealing with the latter) to present a more finely nuanced comparative demographic profile that gives us a better understanding of human behaviour. In the face of changing socioeconomic conditions, coresidence and succession practices in Japanese stem families lead to reproductive behaviours that differ from those forged in extended Chinese households. Nevertheless, a common cultural background results in intrafamilial strategies that place the interests of the household above those of the individual. Generation, gender and kinship ties strongly determine events in the reproductive life of each family member. A large number of family strategies, influenced by culture, shape individual demographic behaviours

Malthus et l’Asie : relecture et mise en perspective du système démographique préindustriel japonais

Cet article remet en question la vision malthusienne d’une Asie dominée par les freins positifs. À l’aide de travaux récents sur le Japon, les présupposés malthusiens sont démontés ici, par l’examen de divers indicateurs démographiques. L’analyse des freins préventifs met en lumière des moyens différents de réduire la pression de la fécondité. Les Japonais pouvaient faire varier leur âge au mariage, contrôler leur fécondité matrimoniale et réguler la survie de leurs enfants selon les conditions économiques, sociales et démographiques. Ce constat met en évidence le fait que la vision malthusienne, si puissante soit-elle, ne rend pas compte de l’extrême diversité qui a cours parmi les populations au fil de l’histoire. L’examen du système démographique japonais incite à réexaminer la définition des freins positifs et préventifs et à prendre en compte le contexte social des comportements démographiques.This article addresses the issue of the Malthusian vision of an Asia governed by positive checks. In summarizing recent studies on Japan, the article examines demographic indicators and uses them to dismantle Malthusian assumptions. An analysis of preventive checks indicates that different means existed to reduce fertility pressures. The Japanese could adapt their age at marriage, control their marital fertility and regulate the survival of their children according to economic, social and demographic circumstances. The Malthusian vision, however comprehensive, does not take into account the extreme diversity among historical populations. Analysis of the Japanese demographic system highlights the need to reformulate the definition of positive and preventive checks and to place demographic behaviours in their social context

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE RISE TEST FOR INCREASED ACCURACY ON X- AND Y- EXPONENTS

On a large number ( > 50 ) of identical large power single-phase autotransformers ONAF temperature rise test have been performed as part of the customer specification. Part of the 24 hour test is a 125% overload for 8 hours. Based on this data one can statistically evaluate aspects as average value, standard deviation and correlation on many parameters. Measurement tolerances have a large influence on the top oil exponent x and the winding exponent y. The calculation of x and y is determined by the ratio of two temperature differences due to a load difference, which can result in larger errors than expected. In two transformers fibre optic ( FO ) sensors were installed in the common winding to measure the hot-spot, not only during steady state, but also during transient conditions. For ONAF cooling, a step increase of load takes a relatively long time before the oil flow reaches a steady state, as is described in the loading guide. The overshoot in the gradient between the hot-spot temperature and the top oil temperature is demonstrated and can influence the hot-spot gradient exponent z. Based on the test results and a statistical simulation one can conclude that the normal tolerances in the temperature- and resistance measurements, result in a large standard deviation in the exponents x and y. Use of the exponents x and y, based on a heat run of one single transformer, should be handled with extreme care. In case of doubt, the use of the exponents given in the loading guide result in a safe margin when determining the overload capabilities of a transformer