A structured review of long-term care demand modelling

Long-term care (LTC) represents a significant and substantial proportion of healthcare spends across the globe. Its main aim is to assist individuals suffering with more or more chronic illnesses, disabilities or cognitive impairments, to carry out activities associated with daily living. Shifts in several economic, demographic and social factors have raised concerns surrounding the sustainability of current systems of LTC. Substantial effort has been put into modelling the LTC demand process itself so as to increase understanding of the factors driving demand for LTC and its related services. Furthermore, such modeling efforts have also been used to plan the operation and future composition of the LTC system itself. The main aim of this paper is to provide a structured review of the literature surrounding LTC demand modeling and any such industrial application, whilst highlighting any potential direction for future researchers

Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean.

Episodic anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, or marine heatwaves (MHWs), amplify ocean warming effects and may lead to severe impacts on marine ecosystems. MHW-induced coral bleaching events have been observed frequently in recent decades in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), a region traditionally regarded to have resilience to global warming. In this study, we assess the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to MHWs across the mostly understudied reefs in the SEIO. We find that in extended summer months, the MHWs at tropical and subtropical reefs (divided at ~20°S) are driven by opposite ENSO polarities: MHWs are more likely to occur at the tropical reefs during eastern Pacific El Niño, driven by enhanced solar radiation and weaker Australian Monsoon, some likely alleviated by positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and at the subtropical reefs during central Pacific La Niña, mainly caused by increased horizontal heat transport, and in some cases reinforced by local air-sea interactions. Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) also modulate the MHW occurrences. Projected future increases in ENSO and MJO intensity with greenhouse warming will enhance thermal stress across the SEIO. Implementing forecasting systems of MHWs can be used to anticipate future coral bleaching patterns and prepare management responses

Phenolic and furanic compounds of Portuguese chestnut and French, American and Portuguese oak wood chips

Botanical species used on aging process must be wisely and judiciously chosen, and for this selection, a basic knowledge of the chemical composition of woods is warranted. Aiming to contribute to extend the knowledge of the chemical composition of several wood species useful for enological purposes, we have focused our studies on Portuguese chestnut and French, American and Portuguese oak chips. The profile of low molecular weight phenolic composition of these chips was achieved, using an optimized extraction method based on pressurized liquid extraction, followed by the quantification of phenolic acids, phenolic aldehydes and furanic derivatives by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC-DAD). The identification of those compounds was also confirmed by LC-DAD/ESI-MS. This study allowed the determination of the low molecular phenolic composition of Portuguese chestnut and French, American and Portuguese oak wood. According to our results, the influence of the botanical species seems to be more relevant than the geographic origin of the wood species