Modelling policies for urban sustainability

The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) is to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effect in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land use, transport and environmental modelling as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems have been developed. Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. About thirty key indicators have been defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use. Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, have been developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impact of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system is currently being implemented in seven European urban agglomerations: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy). A large number of policies will be tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies to be investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common policy set for all seven urban regions, city-specific local policies will be assessed as well. The first part of the paper will introduce the methodology and the modelling system developed. The second part will present first results of the policy testing and evaluation. The paper will conclude with initial conclusions on successful strategies to enhance the long-term sustainability of urban regions.

Evaluating Urban Sustainability Using Land-Use Transport Interaction Models

The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) was to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effects in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land-use, transport and environmental models as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems was developed. Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. Thirty-five indicators were defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use.  Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land-use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, were developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impacts of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system was implemented in seven European urban regions: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy). A large number of policies were tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common set of policies examined in all seven urban regions, also city-specific local policies were assessed in each urban region.  The first part of the paper introduces the methodology and the model system developed. A particular focus is on the development of indicators describing urban sustainability derived from different indicator modules in the modelling system. The second part presents selected aggregated results of the policy testing and evaluation for Dortmund as one of the seven urban regions. The paper concludes with recommendations on how successful strategies to enhance the long-term  ustainability of urban regions should look like

Räumliche Wirkungen von Verkehrsprojekten

Welche räumlichen Auswirkungen ergeben sich durch den Ausbau von Verkehrsinfrastruktur? Dieser Frage geht die vorliegende Veröffentlichung nach. Die Dissertation basiert auf dem Forschungsprojekt "Regionale Auswirkungen von Verkehrsinfrastrukturen - Ex-Post-Folgenabschätzung realisierter Verkehrsvorhaben zur Generierung empirisch abgesicherten Folgenwissens". Anhand von vier Fallbeispielen (Stadtregionen München, Karlsruhe, Paderborn, Hamburg) werden räumliche Auswirkungen von bereits realisierten Verkehrsinfrastrukturen im stadtregionalen Kontext mittels ex-post Folgenabschätzungen ermittelt, analysiert und dokumentiert. Die Methode basiert auf einer vertieften Analyse des Stands der Forschung und dem theoretischen Konzept des Regelkreises "Siedlungsentwicklung und Verkehr". Zu den räumlichen Wirkungen neuer Verkehrsinfrastrukturen zählen neben den Effekten auf die Erreichbarkeit die Veränderung der Attraktivitäten einzelner Standorte, die durch die Standortentscheidungen der Investoren bewirkte Bautätigkeit mit der Folge sich ändernder Siedlungsstrukturen, die durch die Standortentscheidungen der Nutzer bewirkten Umzüge und somit letztlich die räumliche Verteilung menschlicher Aktivitäten, d.h. die Nutzung der Standorte. Zu jedem der Wirkungsbereiche Erreichbarkeit, Attraktivität, Bautätigkeit, Umzüge und Aktivitäten wurden Wirkungsindikatoren entwickelt, mit denen quantitativ überprüft wurde, ob eine neue Verkehrsinfrastruktur räumliche Effekte in Form von Sonderentwicklungen ausgelöst hat. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass durchaus eine kontinuierliche Wechselwirkung der beiden Bereiche Verkehr und Flächennutzung besteht. Bei überdurchschnittlichen Erreichbarkeitsverbesserungen stellen sich räumliche Folgewirkungen in dem begünstigten Korridor ein. Hierzu zählen z.B. Steigerungen der Bodenwerte, überproportionale Siedlungstätigkeit, einhergehend mit relativ hohen Bevölkerungs- und/oder Arbeitsplatzzuwächsen. Zudem konnten eindeutige Zusammenhänge zwischen Erreichbarkeit, Erreichbarkeitsänderungen und deren Wirkungen auf die anderen Indikatoren sowie die kombinierte Wirkung unterschiedlicher Indikatoren zur Erklärung der räumlichen Entwicklung in den Stadtregionen statistisch nachgewiesen werden

Aspatial Peripherality in Europe

"Aspatial Peripherality, Innovation and the Rural Economy" (AsPIRE) was a European research project funded by the EU Fifth Framework Programme concerned with the changing nature of peripheral regions. Recent advances in transport and communication technology have created the potential for fundamental changes in relationships between highly accessible "core" and less accessible "peripheral" regions. Some peripheral regions have taken advantage of these new opportunities, while others perhaps more accessible regions lag behind. The AsPIRE project aimed at explaining these differences in response. 'Aspatial peripherality' is a term devised by the project team to describe a range of processes to compensate for the handicaps associated with remote locations. The report presented here was a contribution of the Institute of Spatial Planning, University of Dortmund to AsPIRE. It developed cartographic patterns of aspatial peripherality and a quantitative analysis of the linkages between different "soft" and "hard" factors of aspatial peripherality and key economic indicators

Sustainable Transport Planning for Israel and Palestine

The paper presents the results of a trilateral research project carried out jointly by German, Israeli, and Palestinian institutions. The overall objective of the project was to develop and adapt models and tools for resource-preserving transport planning in the West Bank and the adjacent areas. Because of its high dynamics and the particular political circumstances, broader socio-economic and political considerations needed to be included in the analysis of present conditions and the exploration of future developments in this area. Compared to other countries, transport planning in Palestine is much more linked to sensitive issues such as security, Israeli settlements, bypass road s and checkpoints, which cannot always be separated in a clean way. To evaluate different policy options for transport planning, a modelling system has been developed consisting of a GIS database, integrated transport and environmental models and network extensions tools. The paper pres ents the integrated database and the modelling system developed, describes the scenarios implemented and compares the outcomes of the model runs with respect to their environmental and social impacts.The research project “GIS-Based Models and GIS-Tools for Sustainable Transport Planning in Israel and Palestine” was funded by the German Research Council (DFG) within the framework of their trilateral research programme bringing German, Israeli and Palestinian researchers together. The project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 started in March 1997 and ended in February 1999. Phase 2 started in March 2000 and officially ended in February 2000. The project consortium wishes to thank the German Research Council for making this study possible through a generous research grant

Acute megakaryoblastic leukaemia shows high frequency of chromosome 1q aberrations and dismal outcome

Acute megakaryoblastic leukaemia (AMKL) is associated with poor prognosis. Limited information is available on its cytogenetics, molecular genetics and clinical outcome. We performed genetic analyses, evaluated prognostic factors and the value of allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) in a homogenous adult AMKL patient cohort. We retrospectively analysed 38 adult patients with AMKL (median age: 58 years, range: 21–80). Most received intensive treatment in AML Cooperative Group (AMLCG) trials between 2001 and 2016. Cytogenetic data showed an accumulation of adverse risk markers according to ELN 2017 and an unexpected high frequency of structural aberrations on chromosome arm 1q (33%). Most frequently, mutations occurred in TET2 (23%), TP53 (23%), JAK2 (19%), PTPN11 (19%) and RUNX1 (15%). Complete remission rate in 33 patients receiving intensive chemotherapy was 33% and median overall survival (OS) was 33 weeks (95% CI: 21–45). Patients undergoing allo-HSCT (n = 14) had a superior median OS (68 weeks; 95% CI: 11–126) and relapse-free survival (RFS) of 27 weeks (95% CI: 4–50), although cumulative incidence of relapse after allo-HSCT was high (62%). The prognosis of AMKL is determined by adverse genetic risk factors and therapy resistance. So far allo-HSCT is the only potentially curative treatment option in this dismal AML subgroup

Prognostic impact of <i>CEBPA </i>mutational subgroups in adult AML

Despite recent refinements in the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of CEBPA mutations in AML, several questions remain open, i.e. implications of different types of basic region leucin zipper (bZIP) mutations, the role of co-mutations and the allelic state. Using pooled primary data analysis on 1010 CEBPA-mutant adult AML patients, a comparison was performed taking into account the type of mutation (bZIP: either typical in-frame insertion/deletion (InDel) mutations (bZIP InDel), frameshift InDel or nonsense mutations inducing translational stop (bZIP STOP) or single base-pair missense alterations (bZIP ms), and transcription activation domain (TAD) mutations) and the allelic state (single (smCEBPA) vs. double mutant (dmCEBPA)). Only bZIP InDel patients had significantly higher rates of complete remission and longer relapse free and overall survival (OS) compared with all other CEBPA-mutant subgroups. Moreover, co-mutations in bZIP InDel patients (e.g. GATA2, FLT3, WT1 as well as ELN2022 adverse risk aberrations) had no independent impact on OS, whereas in non-bZIP InDel patients, grouping according to ELN2022 recommendations added significant prognostic information. In conclusion, these results demonstrate bZIP InDel mutations to be the major independent determinant of outcome in CEBPA-mutant AML, thereby refining current classifications according to WHO (including all dmCEBPA and smCEBPA bZIP) as well as ELN2022 and ICC recommendations (including CEBPA bZIP ms). (Figure presented.)</p

Identification of polyhydroxyalkanoates in Halococcus and other haloarchaeal species

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) are accumulated in many prokaryotes. Several members of the Halobacteriaceae produce poly-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB), but it is not known if this is a general property of the family. We evaluated identification methods for PHAs with 20 haloarchaeal species, three of them isolates from Permian salt. Staining with Sudan Black B, Nile Blue A, or Nile Red was applied to screen for the presence of PHAs. Transmission electron microscopy and 1H-nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy were used for visualization of PHB granules and chemical confirmation of PHAs in cell extracts, respectively. We report for the first time the production of PHAs by Halococcus sp. (Halococcus morrhuae DSM 1307T, Halococcus saccharolyticus DSM 5350T, Halococcus salifodinae DSM 8989T, Halococcus dombrowskii DSM 14522T, Halococcus hamelinensis JCM 12892T, Halococcus qingdaonensis JCM 13587T), Halorubrum sp. (Hrr. coriense DSM 10284T, Halorubrum chaoviator DSM 19316T, Hrr. chaoviator strains NaxosII and AUS-1), haloalkaliphiles (Natronobacterium gregoryi NCMB 2189T, Natronococcus occultus DSM 3396T) and Halobacterium noricense DSM 9758T. No PHB was detected in Halobacterium salinarum NRC-1 ATCC 700922, Hbt. salinarum R1 and Haloferax volcanii DSM 3757T. Most species synthesized PHAs when growing in synthetic as well as in complex medium. The polyesters were generally composed of PHB and poly-ß-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate (PHBV). Available genomic data suggest the absence of PHA synthesis in some haloarchaea and in all other Euryarchaeota and Crenarchaeota. Homologies between haloarchaeal and bacterial PHA synthesizing enzymes had indicated to some authors probable horizontal gene transfer, which, considering the data obtained in this study, may have occurred already before Permian times

Allelic Imbalance of Recurrently Mutated Genes in Acute Myeloid Leukaemia

The patho-mechanism of somatic driver mutations in cancer usually involves transcription, but the proportion of mutations and wild-type alleles transcribed from DNA to RNA is largely unknown. We systematically compared the variant allele frequencies of recurrently mutated genes in DNA and RNA sequencing data of 246 acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients. We observed that 95% of all detected variants were transcribed while the rest were not detectable in RNA sequencing with a minimum read-depth cut-off (10x). Our analysis focusing on 11 genes harbouring recurring mutations demonstrated allelic imbalance (AI) in most patients. GATA2, RUNX1, TET2, SRSF2, IDH2, PTPN11, WT1, NPM1 and CEBPA showed significant AIs. While the effect size was small in general, GATA2 exhibited the largest allelic imbalance. By pooling heterogeneous data from three independent AML cohorts with paired DNA and RNA sequencing (N = 253), we could validate the preferential transcription of GATA2-mutated alleles. Differential expression analysis of the genes with significant AI showed no significant differential gene and isoform expression for the mutated genes, between mutated and wild-type patients. In conclusion, our analyses identified AI in nine out of eleven recurrently mutated genes. AI might be a common phenomenon in AML which potentially contributes to leukaemogenesis.Peer reviewe

Prognostic impact of CEBPA mutational subgroups in adult AML

Despite recent refinements in the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of CEBPA mutations in AML, several questions remain open, i.e. implications of different types of basic region leucin zipper (bZIP) mutations, the role of co-mutations and the allelic state. Using pooled primary data analysis on 1010 CEBPA-mutant adult AML patients, a comparison was performed taking into account the type of mutation (bZIP: either typical in-frame insertion/deletion (InDel) mutations (bZIPInDel), frameshift InDel or nonsense mutations inducing translational stop (bZIPSTOP) or single base-pair missense alterations (bZIPms), and transcription activation domain (TAD) mutations) and the allelic state (single (smCEBPA) vs. double mutant (dmCEBPA)). Only bZIPInDel patients had significantly higher rates of complete remission and longer relapse free and overall survival (OS) compared with all other CEBPA-mutant subgroups. Moreover, co-mutations in bZIPInDel patients (e.g. GATA2, FLT3, WT1 as well as ELN2022 adverse risk aberrations) had no independent impact on OS, whereas in non-bZIPInDel patients, grouping according to ELN2022 recommendations added significant prognostic information. In conclusion, these results demonstrate bZIPInDel mutations to be the major independent determinant of outcome in CEBPA-mutant AML, thereby refining current classifications according to WHO (including all dmCEBPA and smCEBPA bZIP) as well as ELN2022 and ICC recommendations (including CEBPA bZIPms)