Physical Activity, Mental Health and Wellbeing of Adults within and during the Easing of COVID-19 Restrictions, in the United Kingdom and New Zealand

Physical activity (PA) participation was substantially reduced at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study was to assess the association between PA, mental health, and wellbeing during and following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). In this study, 3363 adults completed online surveys within 2–6 weeks of initial COVID-19 restrictions (April/May 2020) and once restrictions to human movement had been eased. Outcome measures included the International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short-Form, Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale-9 (mental health) and World Health Organisation-5 Wellbeing Index. There were no differences in PA, mental health or wellbeing between timepoints (p > 0.05). Individuals engaging in moderate or high volume of PA had significantly better mental health (−1.1 and −1.7 units, respectively) and wellbeing (11.4 and 18.6 units, respectively) than individuals who engaged in low PA (p < 0.001). Mental health was better once COVID-19 restrictions were eased (p < 0.001). NZ had better mental health and wellbeing than the UK (p < 0.001). Participation in moderate-to-high volumes of PA was associated with better mental health and wellbeing, both during and following periods of COVID-19 containment, compared to participation in low volumes of PA. Where applicable, during the current or future pandemic(s), moderate-to-high volumes of PA should be encouraged

Physical activity, mental health and wellbeing of adults within and during the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, in the United Kingdom and New Zealand

Physical activity (PA) participation was substantially reduced at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study was to assess the association between PA, mental health, and wellbeing during and following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). In this study, 3363 adults completed online surveys within 2–6 weeks of initial COVID-19 restrictions (April/May 2020) and once restrictions to human movement had been eased. Outcome measures included the International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short-Form, Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale-9 (mental health) and World Health Organisation-5 Wellbeing Index. There were no differences in PA, mental health or wellbeing between timepoints (p > 0.05). Individuals engaging in moderate or high volume of PA had significantly better mental health (−1.1 and −1.7 units, respectively) and wellbeing (11.4 and 18.6 units, respectively) than individuals who engaged in low PA (p < 0.001). Mental health was better once COVID-19 restrictions were eased (p < 0.001). NZ had better mental health and wellbeing than the UK (p < 0.001). Participation in moderate-to-high volumes of PA was associated with better mental health and wellbeing, both during and following periods of COVID-19 containment, compared to participation in low volumes of PA. Where applicable, during the current or future pandemic(s), moderate-to-high volumes of PA should be encouraged

Comparing What to What, on What Scale? The Impact of Item Comparisons and Reference Points in Communicating Risk and Uncertainty ; Reference Points

The mandated public availability of individual hospital's audit data for children's heart surgery in the UK creates a challenging scenario for communicating these complex and sensitive data to diverse audiences. On the basis of this scenario, we conducted three experiments with the aim of understanding how best to help lay people understand these data and the practical goal of improving the public presentation of these data. The experiments compared different outcome measures for displaying the survival rate (percentage scale versus the ratio of the predicted/observed rates) and presentation formats (individual hospital versus all hospitals shown) for outcomes data presented relative to prediction intervals generated by a risk model that adjusts for case mix. Our data highlight how easily inappropriate comparisons can influence evaluations of complex data: for instance, both a survival ratio of 1 and the presence of other hospitals seemingly provided reference points that resulted in inappropriately harsh evaluations of some hospitals. By drawing on evaluability theory, we demonstrate how to enhance people's understanding of these complex data while also discouraging inappropriate comparisons, which has implications for communicating risk and uncertainty and for choice architecture design in a range of contexts

Understanding Children’s Heart Surgery Data: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to Codevelop a Website

Risk-adjusted survival statistics after children's heart surgery are published annually in the United Kingdom. Interpreting these statistics is difficult, and better resources about how to interpret survival data are needed. Here we describe how a multidisciplinary team of mathematicians, psychologists, and a charity worked with parents of heart surgery children and other users to codevelop online resources to present survival outcomes. Early and ongoing involvement of users was crucial and considerably changed the content, scope, and look of the website, and the formal psychology experiments provided deeper insight. The website http://childrensheartsurgery.info/ was launched in June 2016 to very positive reviews

Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science

Scientific uncertainty is prominent in research that has big implications for our society: could the Arctic be ice-free in summer by 2080? Will a new cancer drug be worth its side effects? Is this strain of ‘flu going to be a dangerous epidemic? Uncertainty is normal currency in scientific research. Research goes on because we don’t know everything. Researchers then have to estimate how much of the picture is known and how confident we can all be that their findings tell us what’s happening or what’s going to happen. This is uncertainty

Improving risk adjustment in the PRAiS (Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery) model for mortality after paediatric cardiac surgery and improving public understanding of its use in monitoring outcomes

Background: In 2011, we developed a risk model for 30-day mortality after children’s heart surgery. The PRAiS (Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery) model uses data on the procedure performed, diagnosis, age, weight and comorbidity. Our treatment of comorbidity was simplistic because of data quality. Software that implements PRAiS is used by the National Congenital Heart Disease Audit (NCHDA) in its audit work. The use of PRAiS triggered the temporary suspension of surgery at one unit in 2013. The public anger that surrounded this illustrated the need for public resources around outcomes monitoring. Objectives: (1) To improve the PRAiS risk model by incorporating more information about comorbidities. (2) To develop online resources for the public to help them to understand published mortality data. Design: Objective 1 The outcome measure was death within 30 days of the start of each surgical episode of care. The analysts worked with an expert panel of clinical and data management representatives. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion of risk factors, development of regression models and assessment of model performance under cross-validation. Performance was measured using the area under the receiving operator characteristic (AUROC) curve and calibration in the cross-validation test sets. The final model was further assessed in a 2014–15 validation data set. Objective 2 We developed draft website material that we iteratively tested through four sets of two workshops (one workshop for parents of children who had undergone heart surgery and one workshop for other interested users). Each workshop recruited new participants. The academic psychologists ran two sets of three experiments to explore further understanding of the web content. Data: We used pseudonymised NCHDA data from April 2009 to April 2014. We later unexpectedly received a further year of data (2014–15), which became a prospective validation set. Results: Objective 1 The cleaned 2009–14 data comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths. The 2014–15 data contained 4207 episodes, with 97 deaths. The final regression model included four new comorbidity groupings. Under cross-validation, the model had a median AUROC curve of 0.83 (total range 0.82 to 0.83), a median calibration slope of 0.92 (total range 0.64 to 1.25) and a median intercept of –0.23 (range –1.08 to 0.85). In the validation set, the AUROC curve was 0.86 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 0.89], and its calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI –0.45 to 0.67), respectively. We recalibrated the final model on 2009–15 data and updated the PRAiS software. Objective 2 We coproduced a website (http://childrensheartsurgery.info/) that provides interactive exploration of the data, two animations and background information. It was launched in June 2016 and was very well received. Limitations: We needed to use discharge status as a proxy for 30-day life status for the 14% of overseas patients without a NHS number. We did not have sufficient time or resources to extensively test the usability and take-up of the website following its launch. Conclusions: The project successfully achieved its stated aims. A key theme throughout has been the importance of collaboration and coproduction. In particular for aim 2, we generated a great deal of generalisable learning about how to communicate complex clinical and mathematical information. Further work: Extending our codevelopment approach to cover many other aspects of quality measurement across congenital heart disease and other specialised NHS services. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme

Developmental Alterations in Heart Biomechanics and Skeletal Muscle Function in Desmin Mutants Suggest an Early Pathological Root for Desminopathies

Desminopathies belong to a family of muscle disorders called myofibrillar myopathies that are caused by Desmin mutations and lead to protein aggregates in muscle fibers. To date, the initial pathological steps of desminopathies and the impact of desmin aggregates in the genesis of the disease are unclear. Using live, high-resolution microscopy, we show that Desmin loss of function and Desmin aggregates promote skeletal muscle defects and alter heart biomechanics. In addition, we show that the calcium dynamics associated with heart contraction are impaired and are associated with sarcoplasmic reticulum dilatation as well as abnormal subcellular distribution of Ryanodine receptors. Our results demonstrate that desminopathies are associated with perturbed excitation-contraction coupling machinery and that aggregates are more detrimental than Desmin loss of function. Additionally, we show that pharmacological inhibition of aggregate formation and Desmin knockdown revert these phenotypes. Our data suggest alternative therapeutic approaches and further our understanding of the molecular determinants modulating Desmin aggregate formation. Desminopathies are myopathies and cardiomyopathies associated with Desmin mutations leading to protein aggregates. Ramspacher et al. demonstrate that altered Desmin function or expression affect the EC coupling machinery and calcium dynamics. They show that aggregates are more toxic than the loss of function and can be rescued by knockdown and pharmacological treatment