A personalized Uncertainty Quantification framework for patient survival models: estimating individual uncertainty of patients with metastatic brain tumors in the absence of ground truth

TodevelopanovelUncertaintyQuantification (UQ) framework to estimate the uncertainty of patient survival models in the absence of ground truth, we developed and evaluated our approach based on a dataset of 1383 patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases between January 2015 and December 2020. Our motivating hypothesis is that a time-to-event prediction of a test patient on inference is more certain given a higher feature-space-similarity to patients in the training set. Therefore, the uncertainty for a particular patient-of-interest is represented by the concordance index between a patient similarity rank and a prediction similarity rank. Model uncertainty was defined as the increased percentage of the max uncertainty-constrained-AUC compared to the model AUC. We evaluated our method on multiple clinically-relevant endpoints, including time to intracranial progression (ICP), progression-free survival (PFS) after SRS, overall survival (OS), and time to ICP and/or death (ICPD), on a variety of both statistical and non-statistical models, including CoxPH, conditional survival forest (CSF), and neural multi-task linear regression (NMTLR). Our results show that all models had the lowest uncertainty on ICP (2.21%) and the highest uncertainty (17.28%) on ICPD. OS models demonstrated high variation in uncertainty performance, where NMTLR had the lowest uncertainty(1.96%)and CSF had the highest uncertainty (14.29%). In conclusion, our method can estimate the uncertainty of individual patient survival modeling results. As expected, our data empirically demonstrate that as model uncertainty measured via our technique increases, the similarity between a feature-space and its predicted outcome decreases

Estimating survival in patients with gastrointestinal cancers and brain metastases: An update of the graded prognostic assessment for gastrointestinal cancers (GI-GPA).

BackgroundPatients with gastrointestinal cancers and brain metastases (BM) represent a unique and heterogeneous population. Our group previously published the Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (DS-GPA) for patients with GI cancers (GI-GPA) (1985-2007, n = 209). The purpose of this study is to update the GI-GPA based on a larger contemporary database.MethodsAn IRB-approved consortium database analysis was performed using a multi-institutional (18), multi-national (3) cohort of 792 patients with gastrointestinal (GI) cancers, with newly-diagnosed BM diagnosed between 1/1/2006 and 12/31/2017. Survival was measured from date of first treatment for BM. Multiple Cox regression was used to select and weight prognostic factors in proportion to their hazard ratios. These factors were incorporated into the updated GI-GPA.ResultsMedian survival (MS) varied widely by primary site and other prognostic factors. Four significant factors (KPS, age, extracranial metastases and number of BM) were used to formulate the updated GI-GPA. Overall MS for this cohort remains poor; 8 months. MS by GPA was 3, 7, 11 and 17 months for GPA 0-1, 1.5-2, 2.5-3.0 and 3.5-4.0, respectively. >30% present in the worst prognostic group (GI-GPA of ≤1.0).ConclusionsBrain metastases are not uncommon in GI cancer patients and MS varies widely among them. This updated GI-GPA index improves our ability to estimate survival for these patients and will be useful for therapy selection, end-of-life decision-making and stratification for future clinical trials. A user-friendly, free, on-line app to calculate the GPA score and estimate survival for an individual patient is available at brainmetgpa.com

Estrogen/progesterone Receptor and HER2 Discordance Between Primary Tumor and Brain Metastases in Breast Cancer and Its Effect on Treatment and Survival

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer treatment is based on estrogen receptors (ERs), progesterone receptors (PRs), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). At the time of metastasis, receptor status can be discordant from that at initial diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of discordance and its effect on survival and subsequent treatment in patients with breast cancer brain metastases (BCBM). METHODS: A retrospective database of 316 patients who underwent craniotomy for BCBM between 2006 and 2017 was created. Discordance was considered present if the ER, PR, or HER2 status differed between the primary tumor and the BCBM. RESULTS: The overall receptor discordance rate was 132/316 (42%), and the subtype discordance rate was 100/316 (32%). Hormone receptors (HR, either ER or PR) were gained in 40/160 (25%) patients with HR-negative primary tumors. HER2 was gained in 22/173 (13%) patients with HER2-negative primary tumors. Subsequent treatment was not adjusted for most patients who gained receptors-nonetheless, median survival (MS) improved but did not reach statistical significance (HR, 17-28 mo, P = 0.12; HER2, 15-19 mo, P = 0.39). MS for patients who lost receptors was worse (HR, 27-18 mo, P = 0.02; HER2, 30-18 mo, P = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Receptor discordance between primary tumor and BCBM is common, adversely affects survival if receptors are lost, and represents a missed opportunity for use of effective treatments if receptors are gained. Receptor analysis of BCBM is indicated when clinically appropriate. Treatment should be adjusted accordingly. KEY POINTS: 1. Receptor discordance alters subtype in 32% of BCBM patients.2. The frequency of receptor gain for HR and HER2 was 25% and 13%, respectively.3. If receptors are lost, survival suffers. If receptors are gained, consider targeted treatment