Response to the Scottish Fiscal Commission's consultation on the approach to policy baselines

We are publishing the response we submitted in September 2023 to the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s consultation on their approach to policy baselines. In our response, we highlighted the importance of the SFC being provided by the Scottish Government with a detailed plan for indexation of tax thresholds and social security payments. We also discuss the fact that indexation in line with inflation ought to be the default assumption if the Scottish Government does not provide one, as it is a more neutral assumption and means that fiscal drag becomes an explicit government decision rather than a hidden one that is baked into an uprating assumption. We support the SFC’s proposal for a judgement-based approach. In the absence of the ideal scenario of the Scottish Government publishing their baseline policy, or at least informing the SFC so it can publish it alongside its official forecasts, we think a judgement-based approach is less likely to be easily influenced by the Scottish Government by means other than a clear statement of government policy, and therefore more credible and transparent. Our view is that there is very much a role for the Scottish Government to shape policy baselines by making clear statements about its intended path of policy. These do not necessarily have to be legislated for already – that would be too legalistic a view, and one that would be open to gaming by changing the timing of legislation. Instead, our view is that if the Scottish Government would like to shape these assumptions, then it is entirely within its gift to provide a list of uprating mechanisms (i.e. multi-year and not just for the subsequent one) for the SFC to use. This list should be made public, ideally by the Scottish Government, but certainly by the SFC upon publication of its forecasts. While there may at first appear to be questions of whether the current government should make commitments beyond the next election, we do not believe this is a realistic concern. In a parliamentary system such as in Scotland, the current parliament cannot bind its successors, and therefore the uprating mechanisms should be seen as the baseline against which future proposals will be judged – which is exactly what the SFC’s proposal is intended to achieve

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score for Evaluating Organ Failure and Outcome of Severe Maternal Morbidity in Obstetric Intensive Care

Objective. To evaluate the performance of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in cases of severe maternal morbidity (SMM). Design. Retrospective study of diagnostic validation. Setting. An obstetric intensive care unit (ICU) in Brazil. Population. 673 women with SMM. Main Outcome Measures. mortality and SOFA score. Methods. Organ failure was evaluated according to maximum score for each one of its six components. The total maximum SOFA score was calculated using the poorest result of each component, reflecting the maximum degree of alteration in systemic organ function. Results. highest total maximum SOFA score was associated with mortality, 12.06 ± 5.47 for women who died and 1.87 ± 2.56 for survivors. There was also a significant correlation between the number of failing organs and maternal mortality, ranging from 0.2% (no failure) to 85.7% (≥3 organs). Analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) confirmed the excellent performance of total maximum SOFA score for cases of SMM (AUC = 0.958). Conclusions. Total maximum SOFA score proved to be an effective tool for evaluating severity and estimating prognosis in cases of SMM. Maximum SOFA score may be used to conceptually define and stratify the degree of severity in cases of SMM

Scottish Business Monitor, 2024 Q1

This report summarises the key results from our latest Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) Scottish Business Monitor, published in partnership with Addleshaw Goddard. The survey sampled almost 400 firms in February from across the Scottish economy, examining business performance in the current quarter and the outlook for the year ahead. Early 2024 was a difficult period for business in Scotland. All of our main indicators showed deterioration, with the exception being capital investment – which improved – although remains in negative territory. Businesses are much more positive as they look ahead, and indeed more positive than they were last quarter. Our latest results also show that: - The vast majority of businesses expect economic/ business uncertainty (97%), staff availability (92%), and political uncertainty (90%) to be important or very important over the next three months. These are up considerably for businesses compared to last quarter. - In every category, the proportion of businesses reporting that costs were higher has increased compared to last quarter. The increase in the cost of employing people were the most commonly cited, with 77% reporting that total employee costs were higher and 76% reporting that wage costs were higher. - In this edition, we explored with businesses what they felt should be the top priority for the UK Government after the election. “Deliver long-term economic growth” was by far the most popular option, being selected by 72% of businesses. This was followed by “Tackle Labour and Skills Shortages” at 45% and “Reduce UK business taxes” at 43%

Levantamentos geofísicos no setor português da Faixa Piritosa Ibérica: perspetiva global da sua importância em prospeção de sulfuretos maciços e interpretação geológica

ABSTRACT: The application of geophysical techniques to massive sulphide deposits exploration has proven to be a success in the Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB) metallogenetic province, both in Portugal and in Spain. Several hidden deposits were discovered through the interpretation of geological models, supported by geophysical data collected in land and airborne surveys, as well as applied using down hole techniques in selected drill holes. This paper presents an overview of the methodologies applied in Portugal in the South Portuguese Zone (SPZ) geological domain, where the IPB is included, mostly by the LNEG and mining companies, with emphasis on the interpretation of the regional gravity, magnetometry and radiometry surveys, published in 1/400 000 scale by the EXPLORA/Alentejo2020 Project. In this regional mapping program, the large volume of data collected by LNEG and mining companies since the 1960’s was compiled and processed. The integrated interpretation and correlation between these methods will enable a better planning of new IPB exploration investments. IPB Volcano-Sedimentary Complex (VSC, Famennian to Late Visean age) lineaments are well defined in the gravity and magnetic fields along the IPB western region (e.g. Alcoutim/Neves Corvo/Montinho/Sesmarias/Lousal/Caveira). Aeromagnetic data also reflect deep and large anomalies related with the SPZ basement. A rock density database is presented and used to interpret the gravity data. Radiometric map (Natural Radioactivity), based mostly in airborne radiometric surveys, show contrasts between rocks in Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic formations and correlations with geological and hydrothermal mapping are highlighted. The use of geophysical techniques is particularly critical in areas where VSC is concealed by younger sediments (e.g. Baixo Alentejo Flysch Group and/or Cenozoic formations), allowing the selection of target areas. Case studies are discussed based on electromagnetic, seismic and magnetotelluric methods and on the high mineral potential of defined targets. Multilayered data correlation (geophysics including petrophysical data, geochemistry and stratigraphic high-resolution models) is a key prospecting methodology and is essential for the accurate modelling of ore horizons and geological structures. Considering the IPB potential for VMS deposits, including the possible discovery of new giant (> 200 Mt) deposits, an increase of investment in new geophysical methods can be predicted. LNEG development of R&D projects such as EXPLORA/Alentejo2020 and SmartExplorationTM/H2020 also contribute to a favourable setting in the province, both in near mining and green fields scenarios. Thus, new discoveries are expected, like others made in the recent times in the IPB Portuguese sector, such as Lagoa Salgada (SFM, 1992, SFM; Redcorp/EDM, 2011; Redcorp/Ascendant/EDM, 2017), Semblana (Somincor-AGC-Lundin Mining, 2010), Monte Branco (Somincor Lundin Mining, 2012) and Sesmarias (Maepa/Avrupa, 2014). The importance of these data goes beyond the mineral exploration purpose. Since some of them use rock and mineral physical properties that can be related with environmental contamination (e.g. radiometry and magnetics) they can also be used in geochemical background studies, acid mine drainage and metal dispersion. Therefore, they can also promote a deeper knowledge in other areas of research related with environment preservation.RESUMO: A aplicação de técnicas de prospeção geofísica na pesquisa de jazigos de sulfuretos maciços na Faixa Piritosa Ibérica (FPI) tem-se revelado um sucesso em Portugal e em Espanha. Vários jazigos ocultos foram descobertos a partir da interpretação de modelos geológicos, com o apoio de dados geofísicos recolhidos em levantamentos terrestres, aerotransportados ou em profundidade, em sondagens (diagrafias). Neste artigo, apresenta-se uma análise das metodologias aplicadas principalmente pelo LNEG e empresas mineiras em Portugal, na Zona Sul Portuguesa (ZSP), onde se insere a FPI. Destaca-se a interpretação dos levantamentos regionais, esc. 1/400 000, de gravimetria, magnetometria e radiometria (EXPLORA/Alentejo2020). Nestes programas, foi feito o processamento de um volume de informação significativo, a partir de dados obtidos desde a década de 1960. Neste contexto indicam-se diversos alinhamentos de gravimetria e de aeromagnetometria relativos a unidades geológicas com elevado potencial mineiro, como o Complexo Vulcano-Sedimentar (CVS, idade Famenniano a Viseano sup.), sobressaindo o eixo Alcoutim/Neves Corvo/Montinho/Sesmarias/Lousal/Caveira. Os dados de aeromagnetismo refletem também anomalias com origens mais profundas e relacionadas com a estrutura basal da ZSP. A base de dados de densidades de rocha é utilizada na interpretação gravimétrica da FPI. O mapa radiométrico (Radioatividade Natural), baseado fundamentalmente em radiometria aeroportada (contagens totais) mostra o contraste à superfície de litologias das formações paleozoicas, mesozoicas e cenozoicas, sendo salientado, no primeiro caso, a sua correlação com a cartografia de alterações hidrotermais. Em áreas onde o CVS se encontra subjacente sob sedimentos mais recentes (ex. Grupo Flysch Baixo Alentejo e formações cenozoicas), o uso de técnicas geofísicas é fundamental para a seleção de alvos. São também descritos exemplos sobre a aplicação de métodos eletromagnéticos, sísmicos e magnetotelúricos na identificação e caracterização de estruturas geológicas. A análise integrada de diferentes métodos geofísicos, complementados com informação geológica e geoquímica, constitui a melhor metodologia de prospeção, sendo essencial para a pesquisa de horizontes de mineralização. Considerando a FPI como uma das principais províncias metalogenéticas do mundo, é expectável que venham a ocorrer mais investimentos e assim serem identificados novos jazigos, inclusive com dimensão superior a 200 Mt. Através de projetos ID como o EXPLORA/Alentejo2020 e SmartExplorationTM/H2020 o LNEG contribui para um melhor conhecimento na FPI em cenários de prospeção near mining e green fields. Nesta perspetiva, são esperadas novas descobertas de jazigos à semelhança do que tem acontecido em Portugal, como por exemplo Lagoa Salgada (SFM-1992, Redcorp/EDM 2011, Redcorp/Ascendant/EDM-2017), Semblana (Somincor-AGC Lundin Mining, 2010), Monte Branco (Somincor-Lundin Mining, 2012) e Sesmarias (Maepa/Avrupa, 2014). A importância destes dados vai muito para além da prospeção mineira. Uma vez que alguns métodos utilizam propriedades físicas que podem ser relacionadas com contaminações ambientais. Certos métodos geofísicos como radiometria e magnetometria, resistividade e métodos elétricos em geral, podem ser utilizados também em trabalhos de investigação sobre background geoquímico, drenagem ácida de mina e dispersão de metais. Desta forma, a aplicação destes métodos promove também um conhecimento mais aprofundado noutras áreas de investigação relacionadas com a preservação do ambiente.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Deteção remota multiespectral e hiperespetral como fonte de conhecimento no sector português da Faixa Piritosa Ibérica

ABSTRACT: Remote sensing is an invaluable tool to increase geological and mining knowledge, due to its screening view and variable discrimination and identification capabilities of the target materials. In this study an overview of remote sensing research developed and ongoing within the Portuguese sector of the Iberian Pyrite Belt (PSIPB) since 2000 is given. Multispectral and hyperspectral datasets were processed using hybrid methods, related both to general and detailed characterization, to: 1) support geological, mineral and hydrothermal mapping, 2) generate products derived from multivariate analysis and band ratios, 3) enhance correlation with radiometric data, 4) provide elements for environmental assessment concerning mining activity, 5) map Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) based on spectral field signatures, 6) quantify AMD based on high correlation mineralogical mapping, and 7) monitor AMD. The results highlight the importance of the quantitative digital support given by remote sensing tools within the Portuguese Sector of the Iberian Pyrite Belt (PSIPB), ruled by georesource exploitation in different stages of the Mine Lyfe Cycle.RESUMO: A deteção remota é uma ferramenta valiosa para aumentar o conhecimento geológico e mineiro, devido à visão sinótica e à capacidade variável de discriminação e identificação dos materiais-alvo. Neste trabalho dá-se uma visão geral da investigação através dos trabalhos de deteção remota desenvolvidos e em curso no Setor Português da Faixa Piritosa Ibérica (SPFPI) desde 2000. Os dados multiespectrais e hiperespectrais foram processados usando métodos híbridos quer para a sua caracterização geral quer detalhada para: 1) apoiar a cartografia geológica, de mineralizações e sistemas hidrotermais, 2) gerar produtos de análise multivariada e rácios de bandas, 3) melhorar a correlação com dados radiométricos 4) fornecer elementos para avaliação ambiental em áreas mineiras, 5) cartografar a drenagem ácida de mina (DAM) com assinaturas espectrais de campo, 6) quantificar a DAM através de cartografia mineralógica de alta correlação, e 7) monitorizar a DAM. Destaca-se a importância do suporte digital quantitativo dado por ferramentas de deteção remota no SPFPI, regido pela exploração de georrecursos em diferentes fases do Ciclo de Vida das Minas.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Digital Twin of a Flexible Manufacturing System for Solutions Preparation

In the last few decades, there has been a growing necessity for systems that handle market changes and personalized customer needs with near mass production efficiency, defined as the new mass customization paradigm. The Industry 5.0 vision further enhances the human-centricity aspect, in the necessity for manufacturing systems to cooperate with workers, taking advantage of their problem-solving capabilities, creativity, and expertise of the manufacturing process. A solution is to develop a flexible manufacturing system capable of handling different customer requests and real-time decisions from operators. This paper tackles these aspects by proposing a digital twin of a robotic system for solution preparation capable of making real-time scheduling decisions and forecasts using a simulation model while allowing human interventions. A discrete event simulation model was used to forecast possible system improvements. The simulation handles real-time scheduling considering the possibility of adding identical parallel machines. Results show that processing multiple jobs simultaneously with more than one machine on critical processes, increasing the robot speed, and using heuristics that emphasize the shortest transportation time can reduce the overall completion time by 82%. The simulation model has an animated visualization window for a deeper understanding of the system

URBSOIL-LISBON-Geoquímica dos solos urbanos de Lisboa: caracterização e cartografia, suporte para futuros estudos de saúde humana: resultados preliminares

A Geologia, e em especial a Geoquímica em ambiente urbano, têm-se revelado ferramentas essenciais não só no estudo dos materiais naturais neste ambiente, como na ligação entre a Geologia e a acção antrópica. Este estudo, com uma metodologia que usa vários meios de amostragem, pretende avaliar quais os elementos químicos que podem intervir num contexto de interacção em que as crianças são tomadas como alvo principal. Os primeiros resultados sobre concentrações de elementos químicos para os solos urbanos de Lisboa apontam para uma exposição esparsa na cidade de alguns dos elementos químicos inorgânicos, mas havendo por vezes um zonamento por tipologia de local ou de elemento químico. Foram definidos quatro grupos de pontos de amostragem consoante o tipo de uso, e escolhidos para uma análise mais próxima alguns elementos considerados tendencialmente de input antrópico e que se relacionam com a saúde humana.