Internationalization strategies of companies in the wine industry in Portugal – context, forms of action and performance.

This research project aims to analyze the competitive environment of companies in the wine sector in Portugal and assess the implications in the development of contingent strategic guidelines and different performances.Proposes to apply the methodological framework the IKST – Integrated Key for Strategic Thought for international expansion. The research was carried out at two levels: at a preliminary level – a general characterisation was made of the companies as to their resources, and at a central level – the examination of the strategic aspect of the companies was carried out. The research involved the collection of primary data (survey of 164 companies in the sector) and secondary data (from documentary nature). Explores the strategic aspect, analyzing the sector in terms of global and national context, in order to design a diagnostic context of action, using the models of PEST and 5 Forces. Identifies, based on various statistical techniques, the adopted style of strategic thought and the profile in terms of contextual variables, as well as the underlying economic performance

GLOBALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION STRATEGIES OF THE WINE SECTOR COMPANIES IN PORTUGAL

This research aims to analyze the competitive environment of companies in the wine sector in Portugal and assess the implications in the development of contingent strategic guidelines and different performances. Proposes to apply the methodological framework IKST – Integrated Key for Strategic Thought for international expansion. The research was carried out at two levels: at a preliminary level – a general characterisation was made of the companies as to their resources, and at a central level – the examination of the strategic aspect of the companies was carried out. The research involved the collection of primary data (survey of 164 companies in the sector) and secondary data (from documentary nature). Explores the strategic aspect, analyzing the sector in terms of global and national context, in order to design a diagnostic context of action, using the models of PEST and 5 Forces. Identifies, based on various statistical techniques, the adopted style of strategic thought and their profile in terms of contextual variables, as well as the underlying economic performance

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis

In the last twenty years Portugal struggled to keep public finances under control, notably in containing primary spending. We use a new quarterly dataset covering 1979:1-2007:4, and estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to important “crowding-out” effects, by impacting negatively on private consumption and investment; and have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and the average cost of financing government debt. Positive government revenue shocks tend to have a negative impact on GDP; and lead to a fall in the price level. The evidence also shows the importance of explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model. Finally, a VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive government spending shocks lead to important “crowding-out” effects..B-SVAR, fiscal policy, debt dynamics, Portugal.

Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: Evidence from Portugal

Drawing on quarterly data for Portugal, we use a Three-Stage Least Square method and a system of equations to recursively estimate two components of fiscal policy – responsiveness and persistence – and to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). The results suggest that: (i) government spending exhibits higher persistence than government revenue; and (ii) government revenue is more responsive to the business cycle than government spending.Fiscal deterioration; Portugal.

Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Government Bond Returns: International Evidence

In this paper, we show, from the consumer’s budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and government bond yields. We use data for several OECD countries and find that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding government bond yields, when bonds are seen as a component of asset wealth, then investors react in the same way. If, however, the increase in the yields is perceived as signalling a future rise in taxes, then they will temporarily reduce their consumption.consumption, wealth, stock returns, bond returns.

Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Government Bond Returns: International Evidence

In this paper, we show, from the consumer’s budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and government bond yields. We use data for several OECD countries and find that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding government bond yields, when bonds are seen as a component of asset wealth, then investors react in the same way. If, however, the increase in the yields is perceived as signalling a future rise in taxes, then they will temporarily reduce their consumption.consumption, wealth, stock returns, bond returns.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach. We build on a recursive identification scheme, but we: (i) include the feedback from government debt (ii); look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets (via housing and stock prices); (iv) add the exchange rate; (v) assess potential interactions between fiscal and monetary policy; (vi) use quarterly data, particularly, fiscal data; and (vii) analyze empirical evidence from the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on GDP; lead to important “crowding-out” effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices; and lead to a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Government revenue shocks generate a small and positive effect on both housing prices and stock prices that later mean reverts; and lead to an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate. The empirical evidence also shows that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.fiscal policy; Bayesian Structural VAR; debt dynamics.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach. We build on a recursive identification scheme, but we: (i) include the feedback from government debt (ii); look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets (via housing and stock prices); (iv) add the exchange rate; (v) assess potential interactions between fiscal and monetary policy; (vi) use quarterly data, particularly, fiscal data; and (vii) analyze empirical evidence from the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on GDP; lead to important “crowding-out” effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices; and lead to a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Government revenue shocks generate a small and positive effect on both housing prices and stock prices that later mean reverts; and lead to an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate. The empirical evidence also shows that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.fiscal policy, Bayesian Structural VAR, debt dynamics.