Estimation of Flood Discharge According to Variability of Rai Nfall Distribution Using Gis-Based Method in a Basin

Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchiv

Hydrological Drought Analysis Based on Copula Theory

Drought has been a more frequent phenomenon of major concern all over the world. From the perspective of water resources management, one of the biggest problems associated with drought analyses is a lack of quantitative estimation for the target drought amount. The objective of this study is to examine the establishing process for the severity-duration-frequency (hereafter referred as “SDF”) curves on climate change. The standardized truncation level that defines hydrological drought was estimated and a bivariate frequency analysis for drought duration and severity was derived. The SDF curves were also estimated. The methodology suggested in this study could be used as elementary data for water resources managements

Application of the Entropy Method to Select Calibration Sites for Hydrological Modeling

Selecting an optimum number of calibration sites for hydrological modeling is challenging. Modelers often spend a lot of time and effort on trial and error because there is no guide. We propose a novel entropy method to automate the selection of the optimum combination of calibration sites. To illustrate, the proposed entropy method is applied using discharge data from one river basin in Korea. First, different combinations of discharge-gauging sites were grouped based on the maximum information estimated by the entropy method. Then, a hydrological model was set up for the study basin and was calibrated by estimating optimal parameters using a genetic algorithm at the discharge-gauging sites. The calibration result confirmed that the model’s performance was best when it was calibrated using the site number and combination suggested by the entropy method. In addition, the entropy method was useful in reducing the time and effort of model calibration. Therefore, we suggest and confirm the applicability of the entropy method in selecting calibration sites for hydrological modeling

Assessment of the Impacts of Global Climate Change and Regional Water Projects on Streamflow Characteristics in the Geum River Basin in Korea

The impacts of two factors on future regional-scale runoff were assessed: the external factor of climate change and the internal factor of a recently completed large-scale water resources project. A rainfall-runoff model was built (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) for the Geum River, where three weirs were recently constructed along the main stream. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) climate change scenarios from the HadGEM3-RA RCM model were used to generate future climate scenarios, and daily runoff series were constructed based on the SWAT model. The indicators of the hydrologic alteration (IHA) program was used to carry out a quantitative assessment on the variability of runoff during two future periods (2011–2050, 2051–2100) compared to a reference period (1981–2006). Analyses of changes in the runoff characteristics of the lower Geum River showed that climate change is likely to lead to an increase of the future runoff ratio and that weirs contributed to an increase in the minimum discharge and a decrease in the maximum discharge. The influence of the weirs on the runoff characteristics of the Geum River basin was projected to be greater than that of climate change

Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered

Noise Reduction Analysis of Radar Rainfall Using Chaotic Dynamics and Filtering Techniques

The aim of this study is to evaluate the filtering techniques which can remove the noise involved in the time series. For this, Logistic series which is chaotic series and radar rainfall series are used for the evaluation of low-pass filter (LF) and Kalman filter (KF). The noise is added to Logistic series by considering noise level and the noise added series is filtered by LF and KF for the noise reduction. The analysis for the evaluation of LF and KF techniques is performed by the correlation coefficient, standard error, the attractor, and the BDS statistic from chaos theory. The analysis result for Logistic series clearly showed that KF is better tool than LF for removing the noise. Also, we used the radar rainfall series for evaluating the noise reduction capabilities of LF and KF. In this case, it was difficult to distinguish which filtering technique is better way for noise reduction when the typical statistics such as correlation coefficient and standard error were used. However, when the attractor and the BDS statistic were used for evaluating LF and KF, we could clearly identify that KF is better than LF

Assessment of Meteorological Drought in Korea under Climate Change

Drought has become one of the most important elements for water resources planning and management in Korea. The objective of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of drought and change in the drought characteristics over time due to climate change. For the spatial characterization of drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is calculated from the 45 observatories in Korea and the spatial distribution is also estimated based on the joint probability analysis using the copula method. To analyze the effect of climate change, spatial distribution of drought in the future is analyzed using the SPI time series calculated from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios and HADGEM3-RA regional climate model. The results show that the Youngsan River and the northwest of Nakdong River basins in Korea have nearly doubled drought amount compared to the present and are most vulnerable to drought in near future (2016 to 2039 years)

Long-Term Simulation of Daily Streamflow Using Radar Rainfall and the SWAT Model: A Case Study of the Gamcheon Basin of the Nakdong River, Korea

In recent years, with the increasing need for improving the accuracy of hydrometeorological data, interests in rain-radar are also increasing. Accordingly, with high spatiotemporal resolution of rain-radar rainfall data and increasing accumulated data, the application scope of rain-radar rainfall data into hydrological fields is expanding. To evaluate the hydrological applicability of rain-radar rainfall data depending on the characteristics of hydrological model, this study applied Rgauge and Rradar to a SWAT model in the Gamcheon stream basin of the Nakdong River and analyzed the effect of rainfall data on daily streamflow simulation. The daily rainfall data for Rgauge, RZ, and RKDP were utilized as input data for the SWAT model. As a result of the daily runoff simulation for analysis periods using RZ(P) and RKDP(P), the simulation which utilized Rgauge reflected the rainfall-runoff characteristics better than the simulations which applied RZ(P) or RKDP(P). However, in the rainy or wet season, the simulations which utilized RZ(P) or RKDP(P) were similar to or better than the simulation that applied Rgauge. This study reveals that analysis results and degree of accuracy depend significantly on rainfall characteristics (rainy season and dry season) and QPE algorithms when conducting a runoff simulation with radar

Bivariate Drought Analysis Using Streamflow Reconstruction with Tree Ring Indices in the Sacramento Basin, California, USA

Long-term streamflow data are vital for analysis of hydrological droughts. Using an artificial neural network (ANN) model and nine tree-ring indices, this study reconstructed the annual streamflow of the Sacramento River for the period from 1560 to 1871. Using the reconstructed streamflow data, the copula method was used for bivariate drought analysis, deriving a hydrological drought return period plot for the Sacramento River basin. Results showed strong correlation among drought characteristics, and the drought with a 20-year return period (17.2 million acre-feet (MAF) per year) in the Sacramento River basin could be considered a critical level of drought for water shortages

Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future