U.S. and U.K. Inflation: Evidence on Structural Change in the Order of Integration

We employ smooth transition models to test the null hypothesis of a unit root in time series on U.S. and U.K. monthly inflation beginning in 1957. Under the alternative hypothesis the test allows for structural change from level-stationarity to difference stationarity. For both countries the hypothesis of a unit root is rejected and it is estimated that rapid structural change began in 1970:6 in U.K. inflation and 1973:6 in U.S. inflation.

U.S. and U.K. Interest Rates 1890 - 1934: New Evidence on Structural Breaks

This paper presents econometric evidence on whether the founding of the Federal Reserve in 1914 caused a structural change from level-stationarity to difference-stationarity in U.S. and U.K. short-term nominal interest rates. We develop new econometric tests that allow for parameter transitions to test for a break of this kind and undertake a grid search analysis of dates and speeds for the change. We find that U.S. nominal interest rates most likely evolved rapidly to difference-stationarity in June 1917. For the U.K. we fail to reject the null that U.K. interest rate series follow a difference stationary process over the entire period 1890-1934. Our analysis differs from previous research on this topic in that we take care to explore statistical uncertainty around parameter estimates, and incorporate higher order dynamics into our econometric analysis.

Assessing osteoporosis learning needs and preferences of exercise physiologists

Research has revealed substantial knowledge deficits regarding osteoporosis among various healthcare professionals, such as physicians, nurses, and physical therapists. However, no previous studies have addressed the levels of knowledge regarding osteoporosis among exercise physiologists working in a cardiopulmonary rehabilitation setting. It is essential that exercise physiologists have a thorough understanding of osteoporosis so they can ensure client safety and provide accurate information to the client and support group. The purpose of this project was to evaluate the levels of knowledge about osteoporosis among exercise physiologists working with clients who are at high risk for fragility fractures. Ninety-six exercise physiologists (female = 63 , male = 33) working in cardiopulmonary rehabilitation clinics throughout the United States were randomly selected and completed a three component survey, which included a 21-item osteoporosis knowledge test. The scores ranged from 11 to 20 with a mean score of 16.3 ± 1.7. Fifty percent of the respondents scored lower than 80% on the test. The major areas of knowledge deficit found were related to disease prevalence, nutritional relationships, and prevention. Additional findings suggest journal articles, websites, pamphlets, and presentations are the preferred methods for leaning among exercise physiologists. These findings are vital for guiding educational programs aimed at improving the osteoporosis related knowledge base of exercise professionals working with clients at high risk for fracture

Improving access to new diagnostics through harmonised regulation: priorities for action.

A new generation of diagnostic tests is being developed for use at the point of care that could save lives and reduce the spread of infectious diseases through early detection and treatment. It is important that patients in developing countries have access to these products at affordable prices and without delay. Regulation of medical products is intended to ensure safety and quality whilst balancing the need for timely access to beneficial new products. Current regulatory oversight of diagnostic tests in developing countries is highly variable and weak regulation allows poor-quality tests to enter the market. However, inefficient or overzealous regulation results in unnecessary delays, increases costs and acts as a barrier to innovation and market entry. Setting international standards and streamlining the regulatory process could reduce these barriers. Four priority activities have been identified where convergence of standards and protocols or joint review of data would be advantageous: (1) adoption of a common registration file for pre-market approval; (2) convergence of quality standards for manufacturing site inspections; (3) use of common evaluation protocols, as well as joint review of data, to reduce unnecessary duplication of lengthy and costly clinical performance studies; and (4) use of networks of laboratories for post-market surveillance in order to monitor ongoing quality of diagnostic devices. The adoption and implementation of such measures in developing countries could accelerate access to new diagnostic tests that are safe and affordable

Forecasting Interest Rates: An Application of the Stochastic Unit Root and Stochastic Cointegration Frameworks

Abstract This paper investigates forecasting U.S. Treasury bond and dollar Eurocurrency rates using the stochastic unit root (STUR) model of JEL classifications: C22, C53, G1

The costs of accessible quality assured syphilis diagnostics: informing quality systems for rapid syphilis tests in a Tanzanian setting.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the costs of Rapid Syphilis Test (RSTs) as compared with rapid plasma reagin (RPR) when implemented in a Tanzanian setting, and to determine the relative impact of a quality assurance (QA) system on the cost of RST implementation. METHODS: The incremental costs for RPR and RST screening programmes in existing antenatal care settings in Geita District, Tanzania were collected for 9 months in subsequent years from nine health facilities that varied in size, remoteness and scope of antenatal services. The costs per woman tested and treated were estimated for each facility. A sensitivity analysis was constructed to determine the impact of parameter and model uncertainty. FINDINGS: In surveyed facilities, a total of 6362 women were tested with RSTs compared with 224 tested with RPR. The range of unit costs was $1.76-$3.13 per woman screened and $12.88-$32.67 per woman treated. Unit costs for the QA system came to $0.51 per woman tested, of which 50% were attributed to salaries and transport for project personnel. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that rapid syphilis diagnostics are very inexpensive in this setting and can overcome some critical barriers to ensuring universal access to syphilis testing and treatment. The additional costs for implementation of a quality system were found to be relatively small, and could be reduced through alterations to the programme design. Given the potential for a quality system to improve quality of diagnosis and care, we recommend that QA activities be incorporated into RST roll-out

Recursive right-tailed unit root tests for an explosive asset price bubble

In this article, we compare the local asymptotic and finite sample power of two recently proposed recursive right-tailed Dickey–Fuller-type tests for an explosive rational bubble in asset prices. It is shown that the power of the two tests can differ substantially depending on the location of the explosive regime, and whether such a regime ends in collapse. Since this information is typically unknown to the practitioner, we propose a union of rejections strategy that combines inference from the two individual tests. We find that, for a given specification of the explosive regime, the union of rejections strategy always attains power close to the better of the individual tests considered. An empirical illustration using the Nasdaq composite price index is also provided

Improving the accuracy of asset price bubble start and end date estimators

Recent research has proposed using recursive right-tailed unit root tests to date the start and end of asset price bubbles. In this paper an alternative approach is proposed that utilises model-based minimum sum of squared residuals estimators combined with Bayesian Information Criterion model selection. Conditional on the presence of a bubble, the dating procedures suggested are shown to offer consistent estimation of the start and end dates of a fixed magnitude bubble, and can also be used to distinguish between different types of bubble process, i.e. a bubble that does or does not end in collapse, or a bubble that is ongoing at the end of the sample. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed dating approach out-performs the recursive unit root test methods for dating periods of explosive autoregressive behaviour in finite samples, particularly in terms of accurate identification of a bubble's end point. An empirical application involving Nasdaq stock prices is discussed