New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments

This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interest rates, so as to extract expected future time-paths. Very recently only the means but the whole (risk neutral) probability distribution from a set of option prices.

AB Initio Calculations of Elastic Constants of BCC V-NB System at High Pressures

First-principles total energy calculation based on the exact muffin-tin orbital and full potential linear muffin-tin orbital methods were used to calculate the equation of state and shear elastic constants of bcc V, Nb, and the V{sub 95}Nb{sub 05} disordered alloy as a function of pressure up to 6 Mbar. We found a mechanical instability in C{sub 44} and a corresponding softening in C at pressures {approx} 2 Mbar for V. Both shear elastic constants show softening at pressures {approx} 0.5 Mbar for Nb. Substitution of 5 at. % of V with Nb removes the instability of V with respect to trigonal distortions in the vicinity of 2 Mbar pressure, but still leaves the softening of C{sub 44} in this pressure region. We argue that the pressure induced shear instability (softening) of V (Nb) originates from the electronic system and can be explained by a combination of the Fermi surface nesting, electronic topological transition, and band Jahn-Teller effect

On the electronic configuration in Pu: spectroscopy and theory

Photoelectron spectroscopy, synchrotron-radiation-based x-ray absorption, electron energy-loss spectroscopy, and density-functional calculations within the mixed-level and magnetic models, together with canonical band theory have been used to study the electron configuration in Pu. These methods suggest a 5f{sup n} configuration for Pu of 5 {le} n < 6, with n {ne} 6, contrary to what has recently been suggested in several publications. We show that the n = 6 picture is inconsistent with the usual interpretation of photoemission and x-ray absorption spectra. Instead, these spectra support the traditional conjecture of a 5f{sup 5} configuration in Pu as is obtained by density-functional theory. We further argue, based on 5f-band filling, that an n = 6 hypothesis is incompatible with the position of Pu in the actinide series and its monoclinic ground-state phase

Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1985-92.

Devaluation expectations for the Swedish krona are estimated for the period 1985 to 1992 using daily data for exchange rates and interest rates. The 90 percent confidence intervals for these estimates obtained by the 'drift-adjustment' method suggested by Giuseppe Bertola and Lars E. O. Svensson (1993) are substantially narrower than the '100 percent confidence intervals' obtained by the 'simplest test' described by Svensson (1991). Estimates for various maturities are used to infer the expected timing of devaluations. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.

Fermi Surface Nesting and Pre-Martensitic Softening in V and Nb at High Pressures

First-principles total-energy calculations were performed for the trigonal shear elastic constant (C{sub 44}) of vanadium and niobium. A mechanical instability in C{sub 44} is found for vanadium at pressures {approx} 2 Mbar which also shows softening in niobium at pressures {approx} 0.5 Mbar. We argue that the pressure-induced shear instability (softening) of vanadium (niobium) is due to the intraband nesting of the Fermi surface