El pensamiento económico detrás de las prácticas y políticas comerciales en Kenia

Este estudio explica los regímenes comerciales en Kenia desde una perspectiva de la Historia del Pensamiento Económico (HPE) utilizando fuentes secundarias de información (libros, artículos y manuscritos originales). Se concluye que durante la era precolonial (antes de 1895) sobre la base de la conjunción de las doctrinas clásicas y el mercantilismo, se practicaba el comercio a distancia y el trueque entre comunidades. No obstante, algunas comunidades restringieron el comercio. Durante el periodo colonial (1895-1962), fundado en el pensamiento económico clásico, se exportaban productos agrícolas y se importaban consumibles menos costosos. El período poscolonial comenzó con un enfoque mercantilista (sustitución de importaciones), pero los sucesivos regímenes han promovido las doctrinas clásicas del comercio reduciendo las barreras a la importación y exportación e instaurando políticas de promoción comercial. Este régimen también promovió el comercio de servicios, que es una temática de interés actual en el comercio internacional

Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

This paper establishes the determinants of the export durability of agriculture products in Zambia with specific attention to maize, sugar, cotton, and tobacco between 1996 and 2019. We find that approximately 39% of Zambia’s agricultural products were exported beyond the first year of trading and less than 10% lasted up to 6 years of trading. The mean and median duration of exporting agricultural products in Zambia was 1.7 years and 1 year, respectively. Among the products, maize had the highest export duration after the first year of trading, followed by sugar, tobacco, and cotton. Results of the discrete-time logit and probit models with random effects revealed that the duration of total agricultural products was significantly impacted by common colony, contiguity, partner’s gross domestic product (GDP), Zambia’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports. Of these factors, colonial history and Zambia’s GDP reduced export duration, while contiguity, partner’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports increased the durability of exports in Zambia. The effect of Zambia’s GDP was uniform across all individual agricultural products. Total exports also significantly impacted all other agriculture products in a similar manner except for maize. Export durability for cotton was significantly impacted by the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), while the export durability of tobacco was significantly impacted by distance, contiguity, and partner’s GDP. To increase the duration of agriculture exports, we propose the exporting of finished agriculture products (and not just raw materials), which have a higher market value and duration probability. Farmers also need support with export subsidies, increased foreign market access (especially to economies with higher buying power), and negotiated favorable trade terms in the region and around the globe

Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports

The importance of environmental sustainability is becoming more and more obvious, so the rationale behind long-term usage of solely non-renewable energy sources appeared questionable. This study aims to identify, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and logistic regressions, the main determinants that affect the duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports to different regions of the world. Data were retrieved from the databanks of the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and the French Centre for Prospective studies and International Information (CEPII). The obtained results point to the fact that approximately 52% of energy products survive beyond their first year of trading, nearly 38% survive beyond the second year, and almost 18% survive to the twelfth year. The survival of Russian non-renewable energy exports differs depending on the region, and the affecting factors are of different importance. The duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports is significantly linked to Russia’s GDP, Total export, and Initial export values. A decline in Russia’s GDP by 1% is associated with an increasing probability of a spell ending by 2.9% on average, in turn growing Total export and Initial export values positively linked with the duration of non-renewable energy exports from Russia. These findings may have practical relevance for strategic actions aimed at approaching both energy security and environmental sustainability