Distributed semantic networks and CLIPS

Semantic networks of frames are commonly used as a method of reasoning in many problems. In most of these applications the semantic network exists as a single entity in a single process environment. Advances in workstation hardware provide support for more sophisticated applications involving multiple processes, interacting in a distributed environment. In these applications the semantic network may well be distributed over several concurrently executing tasks. This paper describes the design and implementation of a frame based, distributed semantic network in which frames are accessed both through C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) expert systems and procedural C++ language programs. The application area is a knowledge based, cooperative decision making model utilizing both rule based and procedural experts

Forecasting Intraday Time Series with Multiple Seasonal Cycles Using Parsimonious Seasonal Exponential Smoothing

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series. An extension of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing has been proposed that smoothes an intraday cycle and an intraweek cycle. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for each distinct type of day of the week. Similar days are allocated identical intraday cycles. A limitation is that the method allows only whole days to be treated as identical. We introduce an exponential smoothing formulation that allows parts of different days of the week to be treated as identical. The result is a method that involves the smoothing and initialisation of fewer terms than the other two exponential smoothing methods. We evaluate forecasting up to a day ahead using two empirical studies. For electricity load data, the new method compares well with a range of alternatives. The second study involves a series of arrivals at a call centre that is open for a shorter duration at the weekends than on weekdays. By contrast with the previously proposed exponential smoothing methods, our new method can model in a straightforward way this situation, where the number of periods on each day of the week is not the same.Exponential smoothing; Intraday data; Electricity load; Call centre arrivals.

Unrepresentative information - The case of newspaper reporting on campaign finance

This article examines evidence of sampling or statistical bias in newspaper reporting on campaign finance. We compile all stories from the five largest circulation newspapers in the United States that mention a dollar amount for campaign expenditures, contributions, or receipts from 1996 to 2000. We compare these figures to those recorded by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The average figures reported in newspapers exceed the figures from the FEC by as much as eightfold. Press reports also focus excessively on corporate contributions and soft money, rather than on the more common types of donors-individual-and types of contributions-hard money. We further find that these biases are reflected in public perceptions of money in elections. Survey respondents overstate the amount of money raised and the share from different groups by roughly the amount found in newspapers, and better-educated people (those most likely to read newspapers) showed the greatest discrepancy between their beliefs and the facts

Testing Models of Distributive Politics using Exit Polls to Measure Voters Preferences and Partisanship

This paper tests various hypotheses about distributive politics by studying the distribution of federal spending across U.S. states over the period 1978-2002. We improve on previous work by using survey data to measure the share of voters in each state that are Democrats, Republicans, and independents, or liberals, conservatives and moderates. We find no evidence that the allocation of federal spending to the states is distorted by strategic manipulation to win electoral support. States with many swing voters are not advantaged compared to states with more loyal voters, nor do “battleground states” attract more federal funds. Moreover, we find that spending has little or no effect on voters’ choices, whereas partisanship and ideology have massive effects.Ideological attitudes, partisanship, distributive politics, federal budget

A computational design analysis and generation of R.M. Schindler houses

Thesis: S.B. in Art and Design, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Architecture, 2001.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (page 19).A computational design study of a portion of R.M. Schindler's California houses was performed with the object of creating computational rules to generate designs in Schindler's style. Houses from 1928-1942 with a general L shape were studied to determine the essential qualities of his schematic layouts. In general, the houses were found to have a direct relationship to the qualities of the site, such as the view, slope, and street. The resulting grammar rules generate schematic designs in Schindler's style. More rules can be developed in order to refine and include other important aspects common to Schindler's houses.by James F. Snyder.S.B. in Art and Desig

Partisan Bias in Economic News: Evidence on the Agenda-Setting Behavior of U.S. Newspapers

We study the agenda-setting political behavior of a large sample of U.S. newspapers during the last decade, and the behavior of smaller samples for longer time periods. Our purpose is to examine the intensity of coverage of economic issues as a function of the underlying economic conditions and the political affiliation of the incumbent president, focusing on unemployment, inflation, the federal budget and the trade deficit. We investigate whether there is any significant correlation between the endorsement policy of newspapers, and the differential coverage of bad/good economic news as a function of the president's political affiliation. We find evidence that newspapers with pro-Democratic endorsement pattern systematically give more coverage to high unemployment when the incumbent president is a Republican than when the president is Democratic, compared to newspapers with pro-Republican endorsement pattern. This result is not driven by the partisanship of readers. There is on the contrary no evidence of a partisan bias -- or at least of a bias that is correlated with the endorsement policy -- for stories on inflation, budget deficit or trade deficit.

TESTING MODELS OF DISTRIBUTIVE POLITICSUSING EXIT POLLS TO MEASURE VOTERPREFERENCES AND PARTISANSHIP

This paper tests various hypotheses about distributive politics by studying the distributionof federal spending across U.S. states over the period 1978-2002. We improve onprevious work by using survey data to measure the share of voters in each state that areDemocrats, Republicans, and independents, or liberals, conservatives and moderates. Wefind no evidence for the "swing voter" hypothesis { that is, no significant associationbetween the amount of federal funds a state receives and the fraction of independents ormoderates in the state. We also find no evidence for the "battleground state" hypothesis -no significant association between the amount of federal funds and the degree of partisanbalance in a state. Modest support is found for the \partisan supporters" hypothesis, whichconjectures that politicians will favour areas that contain a large percentage of their coresupporters.Electoral competition, swing voter, partisanship, election closeness, USFederal Spending.