Restricted Covariance Priors with Applications in Spatial Statistics

We present a Bayesian model for area-level count data that uses Gaussian random effects with a novel type of G-Wishart prior on the inverse variance--covariance matrix. Specifically, we introduce a new distribution called the truncated G-Wishart distribution that has support over precision matrices that lead to positive associations between the random effects of neighboring regions while preserving conditional independence of non-neighboring regions. We describe Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms for the truncated G-Wishart prior in a disease mapping context and compare our results to Bayesian hierarchical models based on intrinsic autoregression priors. A simulation study illustrates that using the truncated G-Wishart prior improves over the intrinsic autoregressive priors when there are discontinuities in the disease risk surface. The new model is applied to an analysis of cancer incidence data in Washington State.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-BA927 in the Bayesian Analysis (http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba) by the International Society of Bayesian Analysis (http://bayesian.org/

Increasing Effectiveness in Global NGO Networks

A tsunami hits a densely populated coast. Aid organizations mobilize, and the world watches as several national members of the same global network respond independently in an uncoordinated way. A new treaty is being developed that would allow countries to claim carbon offsets through forest conservation. But national leaders in the same global nonprofit network disagree about its value. A large organization solicits funds from a major U.S. foundation. At the same time, its sister nonprofit, with the same brand name, approaches the foundation. The funder's leaders are confused, and wonder about the seeming conflict. The question of how much to centralize -- or decentralize -- decision-making and operations has dogged global organizations for centuries. Studies of for-profits show that the best answer can be different at different points in an organization's growth. But few such studies exist for nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and for too many of these nonprofits, the scenarios described above will sound all too familiar because they reflect flashpoints that occur when an operational structure is no longer optimal. What's needed is a way for an NGO's leaders to get out ahead of these flashpoints when possible, by learning to determine in advance when their organization's approach to operations and decision-making need to be revised, and along what lines. In an effort to help with this important task, we synthesized what we've learned through case work with a diverse group of global nonprofits; we also conducted interviews with the leaders and staff at more than 30 global NGOs. Our findings illuminate an emerging approach that blends the best of efficiencies at an organization's center and local innovation in the field

Legitimating Inequality: Fooling Most of the People All of the Time

Over the three decades leading up to the crisis of 2008, inequality dramatically increased in the United States and Great Britain. What stands out, but is seldom noted, is that this occurred within democracies where the relative losers -- the overwhelming majority -- could in principle have used the political system to block or reverse rising inequality. Why did they not do so? A glance at history reveals that peoples have only very infrequently contested inequality because they were led to believe that their inferior status in terms of income, wealth, and privilege was just, that it was not really so bad, or that it was necessary for their future wellbeing. Ideological systems legitimated a status quo of inequality, or in more modern times even increasing inequality. This article surveys the manner in which inequality has been historically legitimated, first predominantly by religion, then predominately by economic thought. Attention is then focused on the manner in which contemporary economic science and its popular interpretations in the media have served to legitimate inequality in the U.S. since the mid-1970s. The paper concludes with a reflection on the unique conditions that enable the legitimation of inequality to be delegitimated.Ideology, class power, utility of poverty, trickle down, vertical social mobility

Massive stars dying alone: The extremely remote environment of SN 2009ip

We present late-time HST images of the site of supernova (SN) 2009ip taken almost 3 yr after its bright 2012 luminosity peak. SN 2009ip is now slightly fainter in broad filters than the progenitor candidate detected by HST in 1999. The current source continues to be dominated by ongoing late-time CSM interaction that produces strong H-alpha emission and a weak pseudo-continuum, as found previously for 1-2 yr after explosion. The intent of these observations was to search for evidence of recent star formation in the local (1kpc; 10 arcsec) environment around SN 2009ip, in the remote outskirts of its host spiral galaxy NGC 7259. We can rule out the presence of any massive star-forming complexes like 30 Dor or the Carina Nebula at the SN site or within a few kpc. If the progenitor of SN 2009ip was really a 50-80 Msun star as archival HST images suggested, then it is strange that there is no sign of this type of massive star formation anywhere in the vicinity. A possible explanation is that the progenitor was the product of a merger or binary mass transfer, rejuvenated after a lifetime that was much longer than 4-5 Myr, allowing its natal H II region to have faded. A smaller region like the Orion Nebula would be an unresolved but easily detected point source. This is ruled out within 1.5 kpc around SN 2009ip, but a small H II region could be hiding in the glare of SN 2009ip itself. Later images after a few more years have passed are needed to confirm that the progenitor candidate is truly gone and to test for the presence of a small H II region or cluster at the SN position.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figs. submitted to MNRA

Luminosity and surface brightness distribution of K-band galaxies from the UKIDSS Large Area Survey

We present luminosity and surface brightness distributions of 40,111 galaxies with K-band photometry from the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) Large Area Survey (LAS), Data Release 3 and optical photometry from Data Release 5 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Various features and limitations of the new UKIDSS data are examined, such as a problem affecting Petrosian magnitudes of extended sources. Selection limits in K- and r-band magnitude, K-band surface brightness and K-band radius are included explicitly in the 1/Vmax estimate of the space density and luminosity function. The bivariate brightness distribution in K-band absolute magnitude and surface brightness is presented and found to display a clear luminosity--surface brightness correlation that flattens at high luminosity and broadens at low luminosity, consistent with similar analyses at optical wavelengths. Best fitting Schechter function parameters for the K-band luminosity function are found to be M*-5 log h=-23.19 +/- 0.04, alpha=-0.81 +/- 0.04 and phi*=(0.0166 +/- 0.0008)h^3 Mpc^{-3}, although the Schechter function provides a poor fit to the data at high and low luminosity, while the luminosity density in the K band is found to be j = (6.305 +/- 0.067) x 10^8 L_sun h Mpc^{-3}. However, we caution that there are various known sources of incompleteness and uncertainty in our results. Using mass-to-light ratios determined from the optical colours we estimate the stellar mass function, finding good agreement with previous results. Possible improvements are discussed that could be implemented when extending this analysis to the full LAS.Comment: 17 pages, 24 figures, matches MNRAS accepted versio

Linearizing the Observed Power Spectrum

Reconstruction of the linear power spectrum from observational data provides a way to compare cosmological models to a large amount of data, as Peacock & Dodds (1994, 1996) have shown. By applying the appropriate corrections to the observational power spectrum it is possible to recover the underlying linear power spectrum for any cosmological model. Using extensive N-body simulations we demonstrate that the method is applicable to a wide range of cosmological models. However, we find that the recovery of the linear power spectrum from observations following PD94 is misleading because the corrections are model- dependent. When we apply the proper corrections for a given model to the observational power spectrum, we find that no model in our test group recovers the linear power spectrum well for the bias suggested by PD94 between Abell, Radio, Optical, and IRAS catalogs 4.5:1.9:1.3:1, with b_IRAS=1. When we allow b_IRAS to vary we find that: (i)CHDM models give very good fits to observations if optically-selected galaxies are slightly biased b_Opt=1.1 (ii) Most LCDM models give worse but acceptable fits if blue galaxies are considerably antibiased: 0.6<b_Opt<0.9 and fail if optical galaxies are biased. (iii)There is a universal shape of the recovered linear power spectrum of all LCDM models over their entire range of explored wavenumbers,0.01<k<0.6h\Mpc. Recovered spectra of CDM and CHDM models are nearly the same as that of LCDM in the region 0.01<k<0.2h/Mpc but diverge from this spectrum at higher k.Comment: submitted to the Mon.Not.R.Astron.Soc., LaTeX (uses mn.sty, graphics.sty, endfloat.sty, trig.sty), 15 pages, 10 figures, also available at http://astro.nmsu.edu/~akravtso/GROUP/group_publications.html or at ftp://charon.nmsu.edu/pub/aklypin/LINOB