Drugs and violence in Colombia: a VECM analysis

It has been widely argued that the production of illegal drugs, particularly cocaine, has financed guerrilla activity in Colombia. This paper uses quarterly time-series data for Colombia 1994-2005 to examine the interaction between legal agricultural production, illegal agricultural production of drugs and the number of guerrilla attacks. The time series analysis suggests that drug production acts as a weakly exogenous stochastic trend which has a negative effect on legal agricultural production and a positive effect on guerrilla attacks; with a long-run elasticity of attacks to drug production very close to unity

Near-planar TS waves and longitudinal vortices in channel flow: Nonlinear interaction and focusing

The nonlinear interaction between planar or near-planar Tollmien-Schlichting waves and longitudinal vortices, induced or input, is considered theoretically for channel flows at high Reynolds numbers. Several kinds of nonlinear interaction, dependent on the input amplitudes and wavenumbers or on previously occurring interactions, are found and inter-related. The first, Type 1, is studied the most here and it usually produces spanwise focusing of both the wave and the vortex motion, within a finite scaled time, along with enhancement of both their amplitudes. This then points to the nonlinear interaction Type 2 where new interactive effects come into force to drive the wave and the vortex nonlinearly. Types 3, 4 correspond to still higher amplitudes, with 3 being related to 2, while 4 is connected with a larger-scale interaction 5 studied in an allied paper. Both 3, 4 are subsets of the full three-dimensional triple-deck-lie interaction, 6. The strongest nonlinear interactions are those of 4, 5, 6 since they alter the mean-flow profile substantially, i.e., by an 0(1) relative amount. All the types of nonlinear interaction however can result in the formation of focussed responses in the sense of spanwise concentrations and/or amplifications of vorticity and wave amplitude

Low-dimensional models for turbulent plane Couette flow in a minimal flow unit

We model turbulent plane Couette flow in the minimal flow unit (MFU) – a domain whose spanwise and streamwise extent is just sufficient to maintain turbulence – by expanding the velocity field as a sum of optimal modes calculated via proper orthogonal decomposition from numerical data. Ordinary differential equations are obtained by Galerkin projection of the Navier–Stokes equations onto these modes. We first consider a 6-mode (11-dimensional) model and study the effects of including losses to neglected modes. Ignoring these, the model reproduces turbulent statistics acceptably, but fails to reproduce dynamics; including them, we find a stable periodic orbit that captures the regeneration cycle dynamics and agrees well with direct numerical simulations. However, restriction to as few as six modes artificially constrains the relative magnitudes of streamwise vortices and streaks and so cannot reproduce stability of the laminar state or properly account for bifurcations to turbulence as Reynolds number increases. To address this issue, we develop a second class of models based on ‘uncoupled’ eigenfunctions that allow independence among streamwise and cross-stream velocity components. A 9-mode (31-dimensional) model produces bifurcation diagrams for steady and periodic states in qualitative agreement with numerical Navier–Stokes solutions, while preserving the regeneration cycle dynamics. Together, the models provide empirical evidence that the ‘backbone’ for MFU turbulence is a periodic orbit, and support the roll–streak–breakdown–roll reformation picture of shear-driven turbulence

Nonlinear Tollmien-Schlichting/vortex interaction in boundary layers

The nonlinear reaction between two oblique 3-D Tollmein-Schlichting (TS) waves and their induced streamwise-vortex flow is considered theoretically for an imcompressible boundary layer. The same theory applies to the destabilization of an incident vortex motion by subharmonic TS waves, followed by interaction. The scales and flow structure involved are addressed for high Reynolds numbers. The nonlionear interaction is powerful, starting at quite low amplitudes with a triple-deck structure for the TS waves but a large-scale structure for the induced vortex, after which strong nonlinear amplification occurs. This includes nonparallel-flow effects. The nonlinear interaction is governed by a partial differential system for the vortex flow coupled with an ordinary-differential one for the TS pressure. The solution properties found sometimes produce a breakup within a finite distance and sometimes further downstream, depending on the input amplitudes upstream and on the wave angles, and that then leads to the second stages of interaction associated with higher amplitudes, the main second stages giving either long-scale phenomena significantly affected by nonparallelism or shorter quasi-parallel ones governed by the full nonlinear triple-deck response

The nonlinear interaction of Tollmien-Schlichting waves and Taylor-Goertler vortices in curved channel flows

It is known that a viscous fluid flow with curved streamlines can support both Tollmien-Schlichting and Taylor-Goertler instabilities. In a situation where both modes are possible on the basis of linear theory a nonlinear theory must be used to determine the effect of the interaction of the instabilities. The details of this interaction are of practical importance because of its possible catastrophic effects on mechanisms used for laminar flow control. This interaction is studied in the context of fully developed flows in curved channels. A part form technical differences associated with boundary layer growth the structures of the instabilities in this flow are very similar to those in the practically more important external boundary layer situation. The interaction is shown to have two distinct phases depending on the size of the disturbances. At very low amplitudes two oblique Tollmein-Schlichting waves interact with a Goertler vortex in such a manner that the amplitudes become infinite at a finite time. This type of interaction is described by ordinary differential amplitude equations with quadratic nonlinearities

The Optical Polarization Properties of X-ray Selected BL Lacertae Objects

We discuss the optical polarization properties of X-ray selected BL Lacertae objects (XSBLs) as determined from three years of monitoring 37 BL Lac objects and candidates. The observed objects include a complete X-ray flux limited sample drawn from the EMS Survey. The majority of the XSBLs classi- fied solely on the appearance of their spectra are members of the class of BL~Lacs since they possess intrinsically polarized and variable continua. The duty cycle of polarized emission from XSBLs is 40\%. The majority of XSBLs ($\approx 85$\%) have preferred polarization position angles on time scales as long as three years. This reflects stability in the geometry of the region emitting the polarized optical emission. We discuss the observed spectral dependence of the degree of polarization and some of the possible mechanisms for producing the observed characteristics. While dilution of the polarized emission by the host galaxy starlight is present in some objects, we demon- strate that the average polarization properties derived from our observations are not drastically affected by this effect. The objects in our monitored sample did not display the larger than one magnitude variations generally used to characterize the optical variability of blazars in general.Comment: LaTex file, 21 pages, with tables appended as a poscript file. Contact [email protected] for postscript figure files. Institute for Advanced Study number AST 93/4

Copernicus observational searches for OH and H2O in diffuse clouds

An intensive search for OH and H2O in the directions of sigma Sco, alpha Cam, and micron Per was undertaken with the Copernicus satellite. Multiple scans were carried out over the wavelength region for the expected absorption features due to the OH D-X and H2O C-X transitions. The feature due to OH was detected marginally towards sigma Sco, and only an upper limit can be given towards alpha Cam. H2O was not detected in any of the stars at the signal level accumulated. The OH abundance towards sigma Sco and the respective lower limits for the OH/H2O ratios are discussed with regard to the extant models for the steady state abundances of OH and H2O, and shown not to be inconsistent with ion-molecule schemes

The strong nonlinear interaction of Tollmien-Schlichting waves and Taylor-Goertler vortices in curved channel flow

Viscous fluid flows with curved streamlines can support both centrifugal and viscous traveling wave instabilities. Here the interaction of these instabilities in the context of the fully developed flow in a curved channel is discussed. The viscous (Tollmein-Schlichting) instability is described asymptotically at high Reynolds numbers and it is found that it can induce a Taylor-Goertler flow even at extremely small amplitudes. In this interaction, the Tollmein-Schlichting wave can drive a vortex state with wavelength either comparable with the channel width or the wavelength of lower branch viscous modes. The nonlinear equations which describe these interactions are solved for nonlinear equilibrium states