Athena; a multi-sector model of the Dutch economy

This document describes Athena, CPB's multi-sector model of the Dutch economy and illustrates the mechanisms of the model by presenting a number of applications. The model is used for policy analyses that require a sectoral dimension and for the construction of long-run scenarios. Athena is a dynamic, annual model with a strong focus on the long-run. Roughly, the model can be described as follows. The production structure has been the focus of the recent research efforts resulting in the current version of the model. The theoretical foundation of the model assumes optimising behaviour of firms in 18 industries. On the labour market, the negotiation process for wages follows a right-to-manage approach. On the demand side, most consumers behave as in life-cycle theory, but some consumers are liquidity constrained. In the last block, the public sector (government, social security and pensions), some aspects are endogenised as the model is primarily aimed at long run structural analyses. The applications of the model include CPB's latest long term scenarios for the Dutch economy, the analysis of a set of policy measures concerning lower corporate tax rates and the effects of five standard simulations.

Human capital, R&D, and competition in macroeconomic analysis

Long-run per capita economic growth is driven by productivity growth. Major determinants of productivity are investments in education and research, and the intensity of competition on product markets. While these ideas have been incorporated into modern growth theories and tested in empirical analyses, they have not yet found their way to applied macroeconomic models used to forecast economic developments. In this paper, we discuss various options to include human capital, R&D, and product market competition in a macroeconomic framework. We also study how policy can affect the decisions to build human capital or to perform research, and how competition policy impacts on macroeconomic outcomes. We finally sketch how these mechanisms can be implemented into the large models used at CPB. See also background CPB Memorandum 122 , " Why should governments intervene in education, and how effective is education policy?".

Macroeconomic resilience in a DSGE model

We use the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Altig et al. (2005) to analyse the resilience of an economy in the face of external shocks. The term resilience refers to the ability of an economy to prosper in the face of shocks. The Altig et al. model was chosen because it combined both demand and supply shocks and because various market rigidities/imperfections, which have the potential to affect resilience, are modelled. We consider the level of expected discounted utility to be the relevant measure of resilience. The effect of market rigidities, eg. wage and price stickiness, on the expected level of utility is minimal. The effect on utility is especially small when compared to the effect of market competition, because the latter has a direct effect on the level of output. This conclusion holds for the family of constant-relative-risk-aversion-over-consumption utility functions. A similar conclusion was drawn by Lucas (1987) regarding the costs of business cycles. We refer to the literature that followed Lucas for ideas for how a DSGE model might be adjusted to give a more meaningful analysis of resilience. We conclude that the Altig et al. DSGE model does not produce a relationship between rigidities and the level of output and, hence, does not capture the effect of inflexibility on utility that one observes colloquially.

Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts

We compare the accuracy of our published GDP growth forecasts from our large macro model, SAFFIER, to those produced by VAR based models using both classical and Bayesian estimation techniques. We employ a data driven methodology for selecting variables to include in our VAR models and we find that a randomly selected classical VAR model performs worse in most cases than the Bayesian equivalent, which performs worse than our published forecasts in most cases. However, when we pool forecasts across many VARs we can produce more accurate forecasts than we published. A review of the literature suggests that forecast accuracy is likely irrelevant for the non-forecasting activities the model is used for at CPB because they are fundamentally different activities.

Intraoperative Quantification of MDS-UPDRS Tremor Measurements Using 3D Accelerometry:A Pilot Study

The most frequently used method for evaluating tremor in Parkinson’s disease (PD) is currently the internationally standardized Movement Disorder Society—Unified PD Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS). However, the MDS-UPDRS is associated with limitations, such as its inherent subjectivity and reliance on experienced raters. Objective motor measurements using accelerometry may overcome the shortcomings of visually scored scales. Therefore, the current study focuses on translating the MDS-UPDRS tremor tests into an objective scoring method using 3D accelerometry. An algorithm to measure and classify tremor according to MDS-UPDRS criteria is proposed. For this study, 28 PD patients undergoing neurosurgical treatment and 26 healthy control subjects were included. Both groups underwent MDS-UPDRS tests to rate tremor severity, while accelerometric measurements were performed at the index fingers. All measurements were performed in an off-medication state. Quantitative measures were calculated from the 3D acceleration data, such as tremor amplitude and area-under-the-curve of power in the 4–6 Hz range. Agreement between MDS-UPDRS tremor scores and objective accelerometric scores was investigated. The trends were consistent with the logarithmic relationship between tremor amplitude and MDS-UPDRS score reported in previous studies. The accelerometric scores showed a substantial concordance (>69.6%) with the MDS-UPDRS ratings. However, accelerometric kinetic tremor measures poorly associated with the given MDS-UPDRS scores (R2 < 0.3), mainly due to the noise between 4 and 6 Hz found in the healthy controls. This study shows that MDS-UDPRS tremor tests can be translated to objective accelerometric measurements. However, discrepancies were found between accelerometric kinetic tremor measures and MDS-UDPRS ratings. This technology has the potential to reduce rater dependency of MDS-UPDRS measurements and allow more objective intraoperative monitoring of tremor

Samenvatting ESBL-Attributieanalyse (ESBLAT) : Op zoek naar de bronnen van antibioticaresistentie bij de mens

Samenvatting over een project rondom ESBL's. Doelstellingen waren: vaststellen wat de bijdrage is van alle ESBL-reservoirs aan het dragerschap en infecties bij mensen en vaststellen wat de transmissieroutes zijn vanuit deze reservoirs naar de (geïnfecteerde) mens