Are Combined Tourism Forecasts Better at Minimizing Forecasting Errors?

This study, which was contracted by the European Commission and is geared towards easy replicability by practitioners, compares the accuracy of individual and combined approaches to forecasting tourism demand for the total European Union. The evaluation of the forecasting accuracies was performed recursively (i.e., based on expanding estimation windows) for eight quarterly periods spanning two years in order to check the stability of the outcomes during a changing macroeconomic environment. The study sample includes Eurostat data from January 2005 until August 2017, and out of sample forecasts were calculated for the last two years for three and six months ahead. The analysis of the out-of-sample forecasts for arrivals and overnights showed that forecast combinations taking the historical forecasting performance of individual approaches such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, REGARIMA models with different trend variables, and Error Trend Seasonal (ETS) models into account deliver the best results

Tourist Season 1990: Recent Developments and Prospects

The lack of snow in the winter of 1989/90 has resulted in a disappointing performance of the tourism sector. The number of overnight stays dropped by more than 3 percent compared to the previous winter season; receipts from foreign tourists (adjusted for price changes) stagnated. Hungarian shoppers also stayed away from Austria after the introduction of stricter customs regulations. In the first half of the summer season the number of foreign tourists was about the same as in 1989, for August and the following months demand is expected to pick up as the economic boom in the most important countries of origin favours higher travel expenditures and some of the travel plans that were abandoned in the winter will now be realized.Tendenzen und Perspektiven im Tourismusjahr 1990; Tourist Season 1990: Recent Developments and Prospects

The Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on European Tourism

As of the late winter season of 2009 it has become obvious that the Austrian tourism industry can no longer escape the effects of the slowdown in international demand. Consequent to lagging adjustments to negative income and labour market expectations, the steep decline in tourism demand is expected to be further exacerbated throughout 2009. In 2009, the effects of the international credit crunch and economic crisis and the resultant slump across all sectors of the economy will cause international demand for foreign travel in the EU 15 to drop by 4.5 percent in real terms, although the decline should slow down significantly in 1010 (–1 percent).Prognose Tourismus Österreich

The Need for Redimensioning in the Tourism Industry

Until the early 1990s, tourism contributed substantially to securing income and employment in Austria and to balancing the country's current account. Austria's ability to make use of its tourist attractions disguised the structural weakness of its economy, which in turn delayed some of the adjustment processes necessary in its physical and primary goods production. With the beginning of the 1990s, the structural deficits of the Austrian tourism industry and its declining competitiveness in terms of prices (primarily due to unfavorable exchange rates) made itself felt, and the pressure was further aggravated by the globalization process. Tourism is one of the losers of globalization within the Austrian economy. Model calculations found that about a quarter of tourist turnover is achieved through competitive advantages that are under present circumstances seen as threatened. In the mid term, the value added by tourism to the gross domestic product (GDP) could drop from its current level of 6 to 6.5 percent to 4.5 to 5 percent. If demand for the competitive advantages traditionally enjoyed by Austria declines, then Austria, one of the most affluent countries in the world, may well be faced with the dwindling importance of its tourism industry. It is therefore urgently necessary to create new competitive advantages in order to retain the vital position of the tourism industry, especially when considering that a high level of economic development and above-average share of tourism are not mutually exclusive in an improved structure. One way of maintaining the capacity of the tourism and leisure-time industry to add value and retain its job creating power is to initiate a strategic repositioning effort. The following main thrusts are proposed: • encourage internationalization; • introduce a wide range quality offensive; • strengthen cooperation between suppliers and destination management; • implement flexible production technologies; • improve the experience orientation; • develop high-growth market segments (short vacations, the "50+", winter sports, culture, market niches).Redimensionierungsbedarf im Tourismus; The Need for Redimensioning in the Tourism Industry

Österreichs Marktanteil in den westlichen Industrieländern

Österreichs Marktanteil in den westlichen Industrieländern

Position Österreichs im Welttourismus

Position Österreichs im Welttourismus

Längerfristige Entwicklung und struktureller Wandel im internationalen und österreichischen Tourismus

Längerfristige Entwicklung und struktureller Wandel im internationalen und österreichischen Tourismus

Ökonomische Erklärungsfaktoren der langfristigen Entwicklung der touristischen Nachfrage

Ökonomische Erklärungsfaktoren der langfristigen Entwicklung der touristischen Nachfrage

Rebound in Tourism

Overnight stays by travellers from abroad were up 6½ percent year-on-year in the last winter season. The good result, exceeding markedly the long-term trend rate of growth, is due to poor snow conditions in a number of foreign skiing areas and to the positive demand effects of the general cyclical upswing. For the latter reason the tourism industry shows optimism also concerning the current summer season. Furthermore, the Alpine regions are likely to gain market shares because of their favourable environmental conditions. Thus, overnight stays should increase faster than last year.Aufschwung im Tourismus; Rebound in Tourism