Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates

Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates. JEL Classification: E52, C33, C53factor model, forecasting, Large Data Sets, monetary policy, news, Real Time Data

Presenilins and the γ-secretase: still a complex problem

The presenilins form part of a complex of membrane proteins that are involved in the proteolytic cleavage of cell-surface molecules. This article reviews the history of the discovery of the presenilins, their role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease and in the metabolism of the amyloid-β precursor protein. Unanswered questions about their biochemical mechanism of action and their effects on Ca2+ homeostasis are examined

Nominal Income Targeting with the Monetary Base as Instrument: An Evaluation of McCallum\u27s Rule

In this paper, we explore McCallum\u27s monetary base instrument rule in the context of several models. The first section uses two models, previously utilized by McCallum, to demonstrate the general properties of his rule and to update through 1992 the empirical support for the rule. The second section uses models that allow a significant role for interest rates in transmitting the effects of changes in the monetary base to aggregate demand. The analysis in these two sections makes two main points: (1) Shifts. or instabilities, in the structural relationship between the base and nominal GNP in the 1980s and 1990s raise questions about the efficacy of the proposed rule; and (2) The ability of McCallum\u27s base instrument rule to control nominal output depends on the response pattern of the target variable, nominal output, to changes in the base. In the sequence of models presented, we lay out these dynamic linkages in successively more detail and examine their ·implications for nominal income targeting

Effects of Heparin and Enoxaparin on APP Processing and Aβ Production in Primary Cortical Neurons from Tg2576 Mice

BACKGROUND Alzheimer's disease (AD) is caused by accumulation of Aβ, which is produced through sequential cleavage of β-amyloid precursor protein (APP) by the β-site APP cleaving enzyme (BACE1) and γ-secretase. Enoxaparin, a low molecular weight form of the glycosaminoglycan (GAG) heparin, has been reported to lower Aβ plaque deposition and improve cognitive function in AD transgenic mice. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We examined whether heparin and enoxaparin influence APP processing and inhibit Aβ production in primary cortical cell cultures. Heparin and enoxaparin were incubated with primary cortical cells derived from Tg2576 mice, and the level of APP and proteolytic products of APP (sAPPα, C99, C83 and Aβ) was measured by western blotting. Treatment of the cells with heparin or enoxaparin had no significant effect on the level of total APP. However, both GAGs decreased the level of C99 and C83, and inhibited sAPPα and Aβ secretion. Heparin also decreased the level of β-secretase (BACE1) and α-secretase (ADAM10). In contrast, heparin had no effect on the level of ADAM17. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE The data indicate that heparin and enoxaparin decrease APP processing via both α- and β-secretase pathways. The possibility that GAGs may be beneficial for the treatment of AD needs further study.This work was funded by a project grant (490031) from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (http://www.nhmrc.gov.au). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Processing of MEMPHIS millimeter wave multi-baseline InSAR data

This paper presents a processing method for multi-baseline interferometric data acquired with the MEMPHIS airborne sensor. The processing method ingests the SAR raw data from each receiver and extends up to the generation of digital elevation models (DEMs). Critical steps include the correction of the azimuth phase undulations, the multi- baseline processing and the phase-to-DEM conversion. Methods for resolving the various hurdles were adapted to the MEMPHIS sensor and are presented here. The results obtained for a data take over a test site near Zurich, Switzerland are shown; these results are in a good agreement with comparable LIDAR products

Temporal Trends in Incidence, Sepsis-Related Mortality, and Hospital-Based Acute Care After Sepsis.

OBJECTIVES: A growing number of patients survive sepsis hospitalizations each year and are at high risk for readmission. However, little is known about temporal trends in hospital-based acute care (emergency department treat-and-release visits and hospital readmission) after sepsis. Our primary objective was to measure temporal trends in sepsis survivorship and hospital-based acute care use in sepsis survivors. In addition, because readmissions after pneumonia are subject to penalty under the national readmission reduction program, we examined whether readmission rates declined after sepsis hospitalizations related to pneumonia. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective, observational cohort study conducted within an academic healthcare system from 2010 to 2015. PATIENTS: We used three validated, claims-based approaches to identify 17,256 sepsis or severe sepsis hospitalizations to examine trends in hospital-based acute care after sepsis. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: From 2010 to 2015, sepsis as a proportion of medical and surgical admissions increased from 3.9% to 9.4%, whereas in-hospital mortality rate for sepsis hospitalizations declined from 24.1% to 14.8%. As a result, the proportion of medical and surgical discharges at-risk for hospital readmission after sepsis increased from 2.7% to 7.8%. Over 6 years, 30-day hospital readmission rates declined modestly, from 26.4% in 2010 to 23.1% in 2015, driven largely by a decline in readmission rates among survivors of nonsevere sepsis, and nonpneumonia sepsis specifically, as the readmission rate of severe sepsis survivors was stable. The modest decline in 30-day readmission rates was offset by an increase in emergency department treat-and-release visits, from 2.8% in 2010 to a peak of 5.4% in 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Owing to increasing incidence and declining mortality, the number of sepsis survivors at risk for hospital readmission rose significantly between 2010 and 2015. The 30-day hospital readmission rates for sepsis declined modestly but were offset by a rise in emergency department treat-and-release visits

The Scope of Monetary Policy Actions Authorized under the Federal Reserve Act

David Small and James Clouse are economists in the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Board of Governors

Revisiting the Role of Acetylcholinesterase in Alzheimer’s Disease: Cross-Talk with P-tau and β-Amyloid

A common feature in the Alzheimer’s disease (AD) brain is the presence of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) which is commonly associated with β-amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT). Although our understanding of the relationship between AChE and the pathological features of AD is incomplete, increasing evidence suggests that both β-amyloid protein (Aβ) and abnormally hyperphosphorylated tau (P-tau) can influence AChE expression. We also review recent findings which suggest the possible role of AChE in the development of a vicious cycle of Aβ and P-tau dysregulation and discuss the limited and temporary effect of therapeutic intervention with AChE inhibitors