Bedrock rivers are steep but not narrow: Hydrological and lithological controls on river geometry across the USA

Bedrock rivers are commonly expected to have steeper and narrower channels than alluvial rivers. However, understanding of bedrock river characteristics has largely been based on small samples of sites in specific climates and upland locations. We provide the first systematic assessment of bedrock and alluvial river channel characteristics for 1274 sites across a broad climatic gradient. We assess whether the width, width-to-depth ratio, and slope of bedrock channels differ from those of alluvial channels and the extent to which these differences are correlated with drainage area, mean annual flow (QMAF), grain size, and lithology. We find that bedrock channels occur at all drainage areas. For the same drainage area, bedrock channels are wider and steeper than alluvial channels. They also have a higher mean annual precipitation and hence QMAF, which likely causes the increased width. After accounting for differences in QMAF, both bedrock and alluvial channels have similar hydraulic scaling. Lithology affects both types of channels in a similar way, with channels on sedimentary lithologies being wider and less steep compared to those on igneous-metamorphic lithologies. Overall, our findings raise new questions about the evolution of bedrock river channels and pave the way for more accurate landscape evolution modeling

Phase shifts of the PDO and AMO alter the translation distance of global tropical cyclones

Recent decadal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency since the mid-1990s have been widely reported; however, it is unclear whether there have also been any changes in TC translation distance. Here, we show that long-term decrease in global TC translation distance during 1975–2020 is caused by an abrupt change point around the year 1997. This change point marks a switch between an increasing translation distance during 1975–1997 and decreasing translation distance during 1998–2020. The shift in TC translation distance is attributed to changes in the distance between the location of TC genesis and land, and the percentage of landfalling TCs to all TCs, which is driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase switch in the mid-1990s. In the last 20 years, the cool, La Niña-like sea surface temperatures (SST) during the PDO negative phase and the warm SST pattern during the AMO positive phase have enhanced the genesis potential index and the potential intensity in offshore areas, resulting in greater TC genesis landward. Phase shifts of PDO and AMO modulate environmental conditions, regulating TC genesis location and landfall frequency, and their combined effects on the translation distance of Pacific TCs. The warm SST anomalies during the AMO positive phase enhance these circulation patterns in two possible ways: via the Indian Ocean and the subtropical eastern Pacific relaying effects at a multidecadal timescale. Our findings suggest that the PDO and AMO act as key pacemakers for decadal changes in global TC translation distance

Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia

Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world's population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970-2014) and precipitation (2015-2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1-31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year-1 (29.36 mm °C-1, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year-1 (20.03 mm °C-1, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year-1 (17.96 mm °C-1, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year-1 (17.28 mm °C-1, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0-14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4-11.6% and -2.1-13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5-40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia

Mega-reservoir regulation: A comparative study on downstream responses of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers

Large reservoirs can considerably alter the water-sediment dynamics and morphology of alluvial rivers. Here we review the effects of two mega reservoirs operated with different regulation modes. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on the Yangtze River has a typical anti-seasonal regulation mode, while the Xiaolangdi Reservoir (XLDR) on the Yellow River undergoes a swift drawdown process shortly before the flood season through the Water and Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS). We examine the influence of these regulation schemes on downstream water-sediment dynamics and find that vast sedimentation occurred in both the TGR (128.4 Mt./yr) and XLDR (210.2 Mt./yr). The two rivers have experienced different changes in downstream sediment transport capacity, with coincident flood and sediment peaks in the Yangtze River but with sediment peaks lagging behind flood flow peaks in the Yellow River. On the Yangtze River, highly unsaturated flows from the TGR led to widespread incision downstream, while on the Yellow River, such flows did not induce significant erosion in the first two years following impoundment. The low annual runoff and high sediment yield of the Yellow River mean that riverbed erosion occurred mainly when the water discharge and sediment transport capacity were enhanced by the WSRS. In both rivers, the riverbed eroded and coarsened downstream of the mega dams, lowering the dry season water level. The increase in channel roughness maintained or even raised flood season water levels, potentially increasing flood risk. Sediment budgets reveal that the river segments downstream of the dams switched from sediment sinks to sources due to riverbed incision. Despite new supply from downstream reaches, sediment deficits arising from dam interception and other human activities within the drainage basins have posed significant challenges to the sustainability of the Yangtze and Yellow river deltas, resulting in lower accumulation rates or even transition from progradation to degradation in subaqueous areas. In contrast to the anti-seasonal regulation mode of the TGR, the WSRS of the XLDR has proven very effective at mitigating reservoir sedimentation and has boosted the quantity of sediment reaching the sea, facilitating delta stability and coastal sediment replenishment

Elasticity curves describe streamflow sensitivity to precipitation across the entire flow distribution

Streamflow elasticity is a simple approximation of how responsive a river is to precipitation. It is represented as a ratio of the expected percentage change in streamflow for a 1 % change in precipitation. Typically estimated for the annual median streamflow, we here propose a new concept in which streamflow elasticity is estimated across the full range of streamflow percentiles in a large-sample context. This “elasticity curve” can be used to develop a more complete depiction of how streamflow responds to precipitation. We find three different elasticity curve types which characterize this relationship at the annual and seasonal timescales in the USA, based on two statistical modelling approaches, a panel regression which facilitates causal inference and a single catchment model which allows for consideration of static attributes. Type A describes catchments where low flows are the least and high flows are the most responsive to precipitation. The majority of catchments at the annual, winter, and fall timescales exhibit this behavior. Type B describes catchments where the response is relatively consistent across the flow distribution. At the seasonal timescale, many catchments experience a consistent level of response across the flow regime. This is especially true in snow-fed catchments during cold months, when the actual elasticity skews towards zero for all flow percentiles while precipitation is held in storage. Consistent response is also seen across the majority of the country during spring when streamflow is comparatively stable and in summer when evaporation demand is high and soil moisture is low. Finally, Type C describes catchments where low flows are the most responsive to precipitation change. These catchments are dominated by highly flashy low flow behavior. We show that the curve type varies separately from the magnitude of the elasticity. Finally, we demonstrate that available water storage is likely the key control which determines curve type

Mixing, Water Transformation, and Melting Close to a Tidewater Glacier

Marine-terminating glacier fjords play a central role in the transport of oceanic heat toward ice sheets, regulating their melt. Mixing processes near glacial termini are key to this circulation but remain poorly understood. We present new summer measurements of circulation and mixing near a marine-terminating glacier with active sub-glacial discharge. 65% of the fjord's vertical overturning circulation is driven by the buoyant plume, however we newly report intense vertical and horizontal mixing in the plume's horizontal spreading phase, accounting for the remaining 35%. Buoyant plume theory supports 2%–5% of total glacial melt. Thus, most of the heat associated with vertical overturing short-circuits the glacial front. We find however that turbulence in the horizontal spreading phase redistributes the short-circuited heat back into the surface waters of the near-glacial zone. Our findings highlight the need for further research on the complex mixing processes that occur near the glacier terminus

Grassland greening and water resource availability may coexist in a warming climate in Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau

Greening of Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau (NCTP) has been observed by increases in the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI), driven primarily by CO2 fertilization effects, anthropogenic warming, and the implementation of ecological restoration programs. Continued growth of LAI throughout the 21st century is also projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios. However, the question of whether local water resources can sustain ongoing grassland greening has not been adequately investigated. Here we assessed the sustainability of water resources under grassland greening across NCTP under various climate scenarios using water yield (WY, defined as precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration) as the key metric. Unexpectedly, we observe the coexistence of increases in LAI and WY in most of NCTP. In a warming climate with increasing precipitation and CO2, we find that grasses maintain high water use efficiency to sustain their growth, contributing to continued local water resource availability. Thus, livestock production may also continue to increase under the simultaneous growth of LAI and WY in the future

Screening for low energy availability in male athletes : Attempted validation of LEAM-Q

A questionnaire-based screening tool for male athletes at risk of low energy availability (LEA) could facilitate both research and clinical practice. The present options rely on proxies for LEA such screening tools for disordered eating, exercise dependence, or those validated in female athlete populations. in which the female-specific sections are excluded. To overcome these limitations and support progress in understanding LEA in males, centres in Australia, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden collaborated to develop a screening tool (LEAM-Q) based on clinical investigations of elite and sub-elite male athletes from multiple countries and ethnicities, and a variety of endurance and weight-sensitive sports. A bank of questions was developed from previously validated questionnaires and expert opinion on various clinical markers of LEA in athletic or eating disorder populations, dizziness, thermoregulation, gastrointestinal symptoms, injury, illness, wellbeing, recovery, sleep and sex drive. The validation process covered reliability, content validity, a multivariate analysis of associations between variable responses and clinical markers, and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis of variables, with the inclusion threshold being set at 60% sensitivity. Comparison of the scores of the retained questionnaire variables between subjects classified as cases or controls based on clinical markers of LEA revealed an internal consistency and reliability of 0.71. Scores for sleep and thermoregulation were not associated with any clinical marker and were excluded from any further analysis. Of the remaining variables, dizziness, illness, fatigue, and sex drive had sufficient sensitivity to be retained in the questionnaire, but only low sex drive was able to distinguish between LEA cases and controls and was associated with perturbations in key clinical markers and questionnaire responses. In summary, in this large and international cohort, low sex drive was the most effective self-reported symptom in identifying male athletes requiring further clinical assessment for LEA

Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change

Recent extreme weather events have had severe impacts on UK crop yields, and so there is concern that a greater frequency of extremes could affect crop production in a changing climate. Here we investigate the impacts of future climate change on wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop globally, in a temperate country with currently favourable wheat-growing conditions. Historically, following the plateau of UK wheat yields since the 1990s, we find there has been a recent significant increase in wheat yield volatility, which is only partially explained by seasonal metrics of temperature and precipitation across key wheat growth stages (foundation, construction and production). We find climate impacts on wheat yields are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages (e.g. frost and heavy rainfall). To assess how these conditions might evolve in the future, we analyse the latest 2.2 km UK Climate Projections (UKCP Local): on average, the foundation growth stage (broadly 1 October to 9 April) is likely to become warmer and wetter, while the construction (10 April to 10 June) and production (11 June to 26 July) stages are likely to become warmer and slightly drier. Statistical wheat yield projections, obtained by driving the regression model with UKCP Local simulations of precipitation and temperature for the UK's three main wheat-growing regions, indicate continued growth of crop yields in the coming decades. Significantly warmer projected winter night temperatures offset the negative impacts of increasing rainfall during the foundation stage, while warmer day temperatures and drier conditions are generally beneficial to yields in the production stage. This work suggests that on average, at the regional scale, climate change is likely to have more positive impacts on UK wheat yields than previously considered. Against this background of positive change, however, our work illustrates that wheat farming in the UK is likely to move outside of the climatic envelope that it has previously experienced, increasing the risk of unseen weather conditions such as intense local thunderstorms or prolonged droughts, which are beyond the scope of this paper