15 research outputs found

    Forecasting species distributions : correlation does not equal causation

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    This research was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, which is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center. Additional funding was provided by T-2- 3R grants for Nongame Species Monitoring and Management through the New Hampshire Fish and Game Department and E-1- 25 grants for Investigations and Population Recovery through the Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department.Aim Identifying the mechanisms influencing species' distributions is critical for accurate climate change forecasts. However, current approaches are limited by correlative models that cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects. Location New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. Methods Using causal and correlational models and new theory on range limits, we compared current (2014?2019) and future (2080s) distributions of ecologically important mammalian carnivores and competitors along range limits in the northeastern US under two global climate models (GCMs) and a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) of projected snow and forest biomass change. Results Our hypothesis that causal models of climate-mediated competition would result in different distribution predictions than correlational models, both in the current and future periods, was well-supported by our results; however, these patterns were prominent only for species pairs that exhibited strong interactions. The causal model predicted the current distribution of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) more accurately, likely because it incorporated the influence of competitive interactions mediated by snow with the closely related bobcat (Lynx rufus). Both modeling frameworks predicted an overall decline in lynx occurrence in the central high-elevation regions and increased occurrence in the northeastern region in the 2080s due to changes in land use that provided optimal habitat. However, these losses and gains were less substantial in the causal model due to the inclusion of an indirect buffering effect of snow on lynx. Main conclusions Our comparative analysis indicates that a causal framework, steeped in ecological theory, can be used to generate spatially explicit predictions of species distributions. This approach can be used to disentangle correlated predictors that have previously hampered understanding of range limits and species' response to climate change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

    A Great Escape : resource availability and density-dependence shape population dynamics along trailing range edges

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    This research was funded by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, which is managed by the USGS National Climate Adaptation Science Center. Additional funding was provided by 1) a CFDA grant (15.678) administered by the USFWS via a Cooperative Agreement Award (no. F16AC00435) to the University of Massachusetts (UMass); 2) a Challenge Cost Share Agreement (no. 14-CS-11092200-019) between the USFS and NHFG; 3) a Dissertation Fieldwork Grant awarded to APKS by the UMass Graduate School, 4) generous support from backers of an Experiment award to APKS and MZ (DOI: 10.18258/10737) and 5) a National Science Foundation grant DEB-1907022 to LSM.Populations along geographical range limits are often exposed to unsuitable climate and low resource availability relative to core populations. As such, there has been a renewed focus on understanding the factors that determine range limits to better predict how species will respond to global change. Using recent theory on range limits and classical understanding of density dependence, we evaluated the influence of resource availability on the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus along its trailing range edge. We estimated variation in population density, habitat use, survival, and parasite loads to test the Great Escape Hypothesis (GEH), i.e. that density dependence determines, in part, a species' persistence along trailing edges. We found that variability in resource availability affected density and population fluctuations and led to trade-offs in survival for snowshoe hare populations in the northeastern USA. Hares living in resource-limited environments had lower and less variable population density, yet higher survival and lower parasitism compared to populations living in resource-rich environments. We suggest that density-dependent dynamics, elicited by resource availability, provide hares a unique survival advantage and partly explain persistence along their trailing edge. We hypothesize that this low-density escape from predation and parasitism occurs for other prey species along trailing edges, but the extent to which it occurs is likely conditional on the quality of matrix habitat. Our work indicates that biotic factors play an important role in shaping species' trailing edges and more detailed examination of non-climatic factors is warranted to better inform conservation and management decisions.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

    SNAPSHOT USA 2019 : a coordinated national camera trap survey of the United States

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    This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.With the accelerating pace of global change, it is imperative that we obtain rapid inventories of the status and distribution of wildlife for ecological inferences and conservation planning. To address this challenge, we launched the SNAPSHOT USA project, a collaborative survey of terrestrial wildlife populations using camera traps across the United States. For our first annual survey, we compiled data across all 50 states during a 14-week period (17 August - 24 November of 2019). We sampled wildlife at 1509 camera trap sites from 110 camera trap arrays covering 12 different ecoregions across four development zones. This effort resulted in 166,036 unique detections of 83 species of mammals and 17 species of birds. All images were processed through the Smithsonian's eMammal camera trap data repository and included an expert review phase to ensure taxonomic accuracy of data, resulting in each picture being reviewed at least twice. The results represent a timely and standardized camera trap survey of the USA. All of the 2019 survey data are made available herein. We are currently repeating surveys in fall 2020, opening up the opportunity to other institutions and cooperators to expand coverage of all the urban-wild gradients and ecophysiographic regions of the country. Future data will be available as the database is updated at eMammal.si.edu/snapshot-usa, as well as future data paper submissions. These data will be useful for local and macroecological research including the examination of community assembly, effects of environmental and anthropogenic landscape variables, effects of fragmentation and extinction debt dynamics, as well as species-specific population dynamics and conservation action plans. There are no copyright restrictions; please cite this paper when using the data for publication.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

    Identification and Density Estimation of American Martens (Martes americana) Using a Novel Camera-Trap Method

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    Camera-traps are increasingly used to estimate wildlife abundance, yet few studies exist for small-sized carnivores or comparing efficacy against traditional methods. We developed a camera-trap to identify the unique ventral patches of American martens (Martes americana). Our method was designed to: (1) determine the optimal trap configuration to photograph ventral patches; (2) evaluate the use of temporally clustered photographs to determine independence and improve identification; and (3) determine factors that influence identification probability. We tested our method by comparing camera- and live-trap density estimates using spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models. The ventral patches of radio-collared martens were most visible when traps were placed 15–20 cm above a feeding platform. Radio-collared martens (n = 14) visited camera-traps for long periods (median = 7 min) with long intervals between visits (median = 419 min), and visits by different martens at the same trap <15 min apart was infrequent (n = 3) during both years. Similarly, there was complete agreement among observers that clustered photos of un-collared martens were always of the same individual. Pairwise agreement was high between observers; eight un-collared martens were identifiable by consensus on 90% (54 of 60) of recorded visits. Factors influencing identification probability were directly related to the time martens spent feeding at traps (β = 0.143, P = 0.01) and inversely proportional to the time that elapsed since traps were baited (β = −0.344, P = 0.006). Density estimates were higher and more precise for camera-trapping (0.60, 0.35–1.01 martens/km2) than live-trapping (0.45, 0.16–1.22 martens/km2), providing evidence that SCR density estimates may be biased when capture heterogeneity is present, yet cannot be accounted for due to small sample size. Our camera-trap method provides a minimally invasive and accurate tool for monitoring marten populations

    Spatial ecology and resource selection of a high elevation American marten population in the northeastern United States

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    High elevation forests that contain mature, closed canopy stands are considered important habitat for American martens (Martes americana, (Turton, 1806)) in the northeastern United States. To investigate this hypothesis, we monitored 15 radio-collared martens over a 2-year period and measured spatial use, and second- and third-order resource selection from 33 seasonal home ranges and 889 telemetry locations. The population was comprised primarily of adults that had small home range size with average seasonal fidelity. During leaf-off seasons, martens selected against regenerating forest at both scales and selected for mixedwood and softwood forest and areas with rugged terrain within home ranges. Second order selection was less pronounced during leaf-on seasons, yet martens exhibited greater selection for hardwood forest and areas with rugged terrain within home ranges. Home range size was correlated positively with amount of regenerating forest, and body condition index scores were lower during winter indicating that these spatial and temporal attributes were influential. Although martens utilized low elevation forest with extensive timber harvesting, contiguous, mature and rugged high elevation forest was used preferentially during winter. Land managers should minimize disturbance of montane ecosystems to ensure population viability for martens and other boreal forest species along distributional edges.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

    Potential influence of high-elevation wind farms on carnivore mobility

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    Wind power development is regarded as a clean energy source. Efforts to mitigate climate change, however, may degrade habitat and compromise wildlife. During winter 2011–2012, we examined the potential influence of a wind farm on a community of carnivores in the New England-Acadian Forest, northern New Hampshire, United States, with a focus on American martens (Martes americana), a mid- to late-successional forest species adapted for snow. We counted marten, red fox (Vulpes fulva), and coyote (Canis latrans) tracks and measured snowpack along roads, and snowmobile and hiking trails to determine the relative influence of wind farms on space use for each species. We observed all species at high-elevations (&gt;823 m), although use frequency varied by road or trail type. As expected, we detected martens most often at high elevations along hiking trails and least often along wind farm roads. We observed the opposite pattern for red foxes and coyotes. Additionally, there was a higher probability of observing canids when snow depth increased and a lower probability when penetrability increased. Although our results indicate spatial partitioning, the edge habitat and compacted snow created by wind farm roads increased access for canids to high-elevation forest. In addition to habitat loss and fragmentation, these conditions may increase competition for martens and lower population viability. Future wind development should minimize disturbance of rare habitats, especially those considered climate refugia.</p
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