Authors: The Members of the European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo 2008

Authors of the Report on the European Economy 2008

Chapter 2: A New Crisis Mechanism for the Euro Area

The European debt crisis followed the US financial crisis with a delay of one and a half years. While its first signs were visible in November and December of 2009 when the rating agency Fitch downgraded Ireland and Greece, it culminated on 28 April 2010 when the intra-day interest rate for two-year Greek government bonds peaked at 38 percent. Since then capital markets have been extremely unstable, showing signs of distrust in the creditworthiness of the GIPS countries: Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. The European Union reacted by preparing voluminous rescue plans that, at this writing (January 2011), have been resorted to by Greece and Ireland.

Chapter 3: The effect of globalisation on Western European jobs: curse or blessing?

This chapter analyses the impact of increased economic integration with low-wage economies on Western European jobs: the message is that when taking all effects into account, globalisation is more likely in the end to raise rather than to reduce employment, because it will help making labour markets more flexible. The challenge for policy is to counter adverse income distribution effects, but to do so in a way that employment is not harmed.

Chapter 4: Spain

Spain has suffered a lot from the current crisis and is the first large economy that may find itself in need of fiscal rescue. If this happens it may prove quite damaging to the euro. Yet, since the mid-1990s, Spain was a champion of growth and fiscal stability; its unemployment had fallen rapidly to the levels that prevailed in the rest of the European Union. This chapter discusses the reasons why such a virtuous initial situation deteriorated so sharply since the start of the crisis. Was this just bad luck or were the booming years just a mirage?

Chapter 4: Industrial policy

This chapter argues against using industrial policy to protect European firms from international competition because of the long-run costs that are likely to arise. Industrial policy should be horizontal rather than sector-based and it should be located mainly at the regional and EU level, but cut back at the national level.

Chapter 1: The Macroeconomic Outlook

The structural problems brought to light by the financial crisis have largely remained in place or shifted from the private (banking) sector to the public sector. In the United States, despite increased saving, household debt remains high; their wealth position has deteriorated substantially due to the bursting of the house price bubble. The real estate sector has shrunk, and the financial sector has still not fully recovered.

Chapter 2: How much real dollar depreciation is needed to correct global imbalances?

A crucial issue for macro developments in Europe is how large and persistent the depreciation of the US dollar against the euro will be. This chapter offers an in-depth analysis of this.