Epidemiology of heart failure: Study of Heart failure in the Australian Primary carE setting (SHAPE)

AIMS: At present, there is no robust information on the prevalence and incidence of heart failure (HF) in the general Australian community. The present study of primary care data sought to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HF in the community and to describe the demographic and clinical profile of Australians with HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study based on analysis of anonymized medical records of adult patients cared for at 43 Australian general practices between 1 July 2013 and 30 June 2018. Data were extracted from coded and uncoded fields in electronic medical records. The prevalence and annual incidence of HF were calculated, along with 95% confidence intervals, using the 'active' population of people who were regular attenders at the practices. Age-standardized estimates were also derived using the 2017 Australian population as reference. The mean age of the population with HF was 69.8 years, 50.6% were female, and mean body mass index was 31.2 kg/m2 . The age-standardized prevalence was 2.199% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.168-2.23%], and the age-standardized annual incidence was 0.348% (95% CI: 0.342-0.354%). These estimates accord with almost 420 000 people living with HF in Australia in 2017, and >66 000 new cases of HF occurring that year. Only 18.9% of patients with definite HF had this formally captured as a 'diagnosis' in their medical record. HF was more frequent among those of lower socio-economic status. CONCLUSIONS: HF is common in Australia. The majority of HF patients do not have this diagnosis optimally noted in their primary care medical records

High mortality in patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism and elevated INR not on anticoagulant therapy

The prognostic significance of patients presenting with pulmonary embolism (PE) and elevated International Normalised Ratio (INR) not on anticoagulant therapy has not been described. We investigated whether these patients had higher mortality compared to patients with normal INR. A retrospective study of patients admitted to a tertiary hospital with acute PE from 2000 to 2012 was undertaken, with study outcomes tracked using a state-wide death registry. Patients were excluded if they were taking anticoagulants or had inadequate documentation of their INR and medication status. Of the 1,039 patients identified, 94 (9 %) had an elevated INR (> 1.2) in the absence of anticoagulant use. These patients had higher mortality at six months follow-up (26 % vs 6 %, p 1.2 at diagnosis was an independent predictor of death at six months post-PE (hazard ratio [HR] 2.9, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.8–4.7, p< 0.001). The addition of INR to a multivariable model that included the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI), chest pain, and serum sodium led to a significant net reclassification improvement estimated at 8.1 %. The final model’s C statistic increased significantly by 0.04 (95 % CI 0.01–0.08, p=0.03) to 0.83 compared to sPESI alone (0.79). In summary, patients presenting with acute PE and elevated INR while not on anticoagulant therapy appear to be at high risk of death. Future validation studies in independent cohorts will clarify if this novel finding can be usefully incorporated into clinical decision making in patients with acute PE