Results of monitoring at the British library excavation

The main phase of excavation for the basements of the British Library at St Pancras, London, was completed in 1987. The project included basements extending up to 25 m deep, through the London Clay and into the Lambeth Group. The excavations were formed using both the top-down method and open excavation with ground anchors. Existing major buildings lie within 25 m of the site and London Underground tunnels lie below and adjacent to the site. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of displacement monitoring; they are summarised in the paper and presented in more detail in online supplementary data files. The retaining walls advanced towards the site by up to about 32 mm and the clays expanded rapidly on unloading beneath the excavations, causing the Victoria Line tunnels to heave by up to 22 mm. The slow progress of the project provided an unusual opportunity to monitor ground and structure movements in the surroundings before site activity began. Ironically, it was found that the largest settlements of adjacent buildings were caused by the installation of equipment intended to measure the settlements. Extensive condition surveys were carried out, but no damage to adjacent structures or tunnels has been recorded. </jats:p

The Cost-Effectiveness of Conservation Payments

Intact ecosystems provide important global services. Many valuable ecosystems are located in low-income countries in which citizens are not in a position to provide global public goods gratis. To address this problem, international conservation and development donors have been making substantial investments in habitat conservation. Among the more common conservation schemes are interventions aimed at encouraging commercial activities that produce ecosystem services as joint products. We argue that it would be more cost-effective to pay for conservation performance directly. We use a simple yet general model to establish three conclusions. First, the overall cost of conservation is least when direct payments are employed. Second, the donor will generally find direct payments more cost-effective. Third, the preferences of donors and eco-entrepreneurs are opposed: when the donor prefers direct payments, the eco-entrepreneur prefers indirect subsidies. There are a number of reasons why direct incentive programs may be difficult to implement. We argue, however, that any approach to conservation will face similar challenges. Furthermore, we demonstrate with an empirical example that direct payment initiatives can offer spectacular cost-savings relative to less direct approaches. We therefore believe that continued experimentation with direct conservation incentives in the developing world is warranted and will prove successful.

Estimation of the carbon footprint of student halls of residence in the University of Strathclyde

There is a rapid increase in environmental awareness, which has led to legislative and governmental policy developments addressing the reduction in carbon emissions to the atmosphere. As an example of a local level response, the University of Strathclyde has developed its Environmental Management System. This paper presents the detailed estimation of the carbon footprint of one of the University halls of residence that will assist the University in assessing its environmental impact. The procedure adopted, and the sensitivity studies undertaken, will help to inform the extension of the carbon footprint study to the whole university campus

Forecasting UK Industrial Production Over the Business Cycle

This paper examines the information available through leading indicators for modelling and forecasting the UK quarterly index of production (seasonally adjusted). The emphasis is on one-quarter ahead prediction, especially over the 1990s recession. Linear specifications considered are univariate autoregressive models together with dynamic single indicator and multiple indicator models. Both univariate and leading indicator versions of nonlinear Markov switching specifications are also examined. In the latter case, the transition probabilities are modelled as logistic functions of the leading indicators, allowing the lead times to differ for the expansion to expansion and recession to recession probabilities. Despite general evidence that the term structure of interest rates helps regime classification in the Markov switching models, these models perform relatively poorly in forecasting the 1990s production recession. It is suggested that this poor performance may be due to the nature of that recession, which differed from previous major UK postwar recessions in having no single quarter where industrial production declined substantially. However, a three indicator linear specification does well. The leading indicator variables in this latter model are a short-term interest rate, the stock market dividend yield and the optimism balance from the quarterly survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry.

Differentiating the Self: the Kinship Practices of Middle-Aged Gay Men in Manchester

Middle-aged gay men in Manchester differentiate themselves through accounts of ‘friendship family’ from relating/kinship associated with heterosexuals and younger gay men. In this article, based on interviews with 27 men aged 39–61, I explore narratives of friendship family. This critical space enables development/mobilisation of the resources of ageing – ‘ageing capital’ – needed to reclaim self-worth in the face of homophobia and gay ageism. It helped men to develop the emotional and political resources to question heteronormative family and practice non-monogamy. However, in the struggle for dominance over meaning/representation, generational claims to differentiation could reinforce reverse ageism. Young gay men were constructed as threat, insubstantial or vulnerable, obliging a duty of care to avoid exploiting them. The discursive strategies men deployed could limit/thwart the use of ageing capital and undermine men’s claims that ageing involves a linear path towards enhanced awareness of self, other and authoritative knowledge of the relations of gay culture. </jats:p