A multiscale view on inverse statistics and gain/loss asymmetry in financial time series

Researchers have studied the first passage time of financial time series and observed that the smallest time interval needed for a stock index to move a given distance is typically shorter for negative than for positive price movements. The same is not observed for the index constituents, the individual stocks. We use the discrete wavelet transform to illustrate that this is a long rather than short time scale phenomenon -- if enough low frequency content of the price process is removed, the asymmetry disappears. We also propose a new model, which explain the asymmetry by prolonged, correlated down movements of individual stocks

Frequencies of some B blood group alleles in laying hens from a selection and crossbreeding experiment

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Median Statistics, H_0, and the Accelerating Universe

(Abridged) We develop median statistics that provide powerful alternatives to chi-squared likelihood methods and require fewer assumptions about the data. Applying median statistics to Huchra's compilation of nearly all estimates of the Hubble constant, we find a median value H_0=67 km/s/Mpc. Median statistics assume only that the measurements are independent and free of systematic errors. This estimate is arguably the best summary of current knowledge because it uses all available data and, unlike other estimates, makes no assumption about the distribution of measurement errors. The 95% range of purely statistical errors is +/- 2 km/s/Mpc. The statistical precision of this result leads us to analyze the range of possible systematic errors in the median, which we estimate to be roughly +/- 5 km/s/Mpc (95% limits), dominating over the statistical errors. A Bayesian median statistics treatment of high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) apparent magnitude versus redshift data from Riess et al. yields a posterior probability that the cosmological constant Lambda > 0 of 70 or 89%, depending on the prior information used. The posterior probability of an open universe is about 47%. Analysis of the Perlmutter et al. high-redshift SNe Ia data show the best-fit flat-Lambda model favored over the best-fit Lambda = 0 open model by odds of 366:1; corresponding Riess et al. odds are 3:1 (assuming prior odds of 1:1).Median statistics analyses of the SNe Ia data do not rule out a time-variable Lambda model, and may even favor it over a time-independent Lambda and a Lambda = 0 open model.Comment: Significant revisions include discussion of systematic errors in the median of H_0. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal, v548, February 20, 2001 issue. 47 pages incl. figures and table

Metal Enrichment of the Intergalactic Medium in Cosmological Simulations

Observations have established that the diffuse intergalactic medium (IGM) at z ~ 3 is enriched to ~0.1-1% solar metallicity and that the hot gas in large clusters of galaxies (ICM) is enriched to 1/3-1/2 solar metallicity at z=0. Metals in the IGM may have been removed from galaxies (in which they presumably form) during dynamical encounters between galaxies, by ram-pressure stripping, by supernova-driven winds, or as radiation-pressure driven dust efflux. This study develops a method of investigating the chemical enrichment of the IGM and of galaxies, using already completed cosmological simulations. To these simulations, we add dust and (gaseous) metals, distributing the dust and metals in the gas according to three simple parameterized prescriptions, one for each enrichment mechanism. These prescriptions are formulated to capture the basic ejection physics, and calibrated when possible with empirical data. Our results indicate that dynamical removal of metals from >~ 3*10^8 solar mass galaxies cannot account for the observed metallicity of low-column density Ly-alpha absorbers, and that dynamical removal from >~ 3*10^10 solar mass galaxies cannot account for the ICM metallicities. Dynamical removal also fails to produce a strong enough mass-metallicity relation in galaxies. In contrast, either wind or radiation-pressure ejection of metals from relatively large galaxies can plausibly account for all three sets of observations (though it is unclear whether metals can be distributed uniformly enough in the low-density regions without overly disturbing the IGM, and whether clusters can be enriched quite as much as observed). We investigate in detail how our results change with variations in our assumed parameters, and how results for the different ejection processes compare. (Abridged)Comment: Minor revision, 1 figure added addressing diffusion of metals after their ejection. Accepted by ApJ. 31 EmulateApj Pages with 13 embedded postscript figure