25 research outputs found

    What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

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    BACKGROUND: Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care. AIM: To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales. DESIGN: Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and 'other' were applied to numbers of expected future deaths. Setting/population: All deaths (2004-2014) from death registration data and predicted deaths (2015-2040) from official population forecasts in England and Wales. RESULTS: Annual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85 years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85 years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (18.3%-22.9% and 16.7%- 21.2%) while hospital deaths declined (57.9%-48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6%, with care home the most common place of death by 2040. If care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, hospital deaths will start rising by 2023. CONCLUSION: To sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed; otherwise, hospital deaths will increase.The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article: This work is independent research funded by Cicely Saunders International and The Atlantic Philanthropies (grant number 24610). This research was supported by the Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) South London, which is part of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), and is a partnership between King’s Health Partners, St. George’s, University London and St George’s Healthcare NHS Trust. I.J.H. is an NIHR Senior Investigator. C.J.E. is funded by a Health Education England (HEE)/NIHR Senior Clinical Lectureship. B.G. is funded by the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health

    Influences on Care Preferences of Older People with Advanced Illness: A Systematic Review and Thematic Synthesis.

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    OBJECTIVES: To determine and explore the influences on care preferences of older people with advanced illness and integrate our results into a model to guide practice and research. DESIGN: Systematic review using Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, Web of Science, and OpenGrey databases from inception to February 2017 and reference and citation list searching. Included articles investigated influences on care preference using qualitative or quantitative methodology. Thematic synthesis of qualitative articles and narrative synthesis of quantitative articles were undertaken. SETTING: Hospital and community care settings. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults with advanced illness, including people with specific illnesses and markers of advanced disease, populations identified as in the last year of life, or individuals receiving palliative care (N = 15,164). MEASUREMENTS: The QualSys criteria were used to assess study quality. RESULTS: Of 12,142 search results, 57 articles were included. Family and care context, illness, and individual factors interact to influence care preferences. Support from and burden on family and loved ones were prominent influences on care preferences. Mechanisms by which preferences are influenced include the process of trading-off between competing priorities, making choices based on expected outcome, level of engagement, and individual ability to form and express preferences. CONCLUSION: Family is particularly important as an influence on care preferences, which are influenced by complex interaction of family, individual, and illness factors. To support preferences, clinicians should consider older people with illnesses and their families together as a unit of care.Cicely Saunders International Atlantic Philanthropies. Grant Number: 24610 Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care, South London National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) King's Health Partners St. George's University London St George's Healthcare National Health Service (NHS) Trus

    Factors associated with hospitalisations of patients with chronic heart failure approaching the end of life: A systematic review.

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    Peer reviewed: TrueBACKGROUND: Heart failure has high mortality and is linked to substantial burden for patients, carers and health care systems. Patients with chronic heart failure frequently experience recurrent hospitalisations peaking at the end of life, but most prefer to avoid hospital. The drivers of hospitalisations are not well understood. AIM: We aimed to synthesise the evidence on factors associated with all-cause and heart failure hospitalisations of patients with advanced chronic heart failure. DESIGN: Systematic review of studies quantitatively evaluating factors associated with all-cause or heart failure hospitalisations in adult patients with advanced chronic heart failure. DATA SOURCES: Five electronic databases were searched from inception to September 2020. Additionally, searches for grey literature, citation searching and hand-searching were performed. We assessed the quality of individual studies using the QualSyst tool. Strength of evidence was determined weighing number, quality and consistency of studies. Findings are reported narratively as pooling was not deemed feasible. RESULTS: In 54 articles, 68 individual, illness-level, service-level and environmental factors were identified. We found high/moderate strength evidence for specialist palliative or hospice care being associated with reduced risk of all-cause and heart failure hospitalisations, respectively. Based on high strength evidence, we further identified black/non-white ethnicity as a risk factor for all-cause hospitalisations. CONCLUSION: Efforts to integrate hospice and specialist palliative services into care may reduce avoidable hospitalisations in advanced heart failure. Inequalities in end-of-life care in terms of race/ethnicity should be addressed. Further research should investigate the causality of the relationships identified here

    sj-pdf-1-pmj-10.1177_02692163221123422 – Supplemental material for Factors associated with hospitalisations of patients with chronic heart failure approaching the end of life: A systematic review

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    Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-pmj-10.1177_02692163221123422 for Factors associated with hospitalisations of patients with chronic heart failure approaching the end of life: A systematic review by Aina R Zehnder, Anna J Pedrosa Carrasco and Simon N Etkind in Palliative Medicine</p

    sj-pdf-2-pmj-10.1177_02692163221123422 – Supplemental material for Factors associated with hospitalisations of patients with chronic heart failure approaching the end of life: A systematic review

    No full text
    Supplemental material, sj-pdf-2-pmj-10.1177_02692163221123422 for Factors associated with hospitalisations of patients with chronic heart failure approaching the end of life: A systematic review by Aina R Zehnder, Anna J Pedrosa Carrasco and Simon N Etkind in Palliative Medicine</p
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