Total force of infection and corresponding R₀ estimates from the model fitted to the incidence data grouped by country.

<p>Each dot represents the posterior median estimate and the error bars show the 95% CrI for each dataset. The box represents the country-specific central estimate calculated by taking the mean values of the MCMC output for each country (the line and limits of the box represents the posterior median and the 95% CrI respectively). R₀ assumption one: complete protection acquired upon quaternary infection, assumption two: complete protection reached after secondary infection.</p

Summary of cross-sectional incidence datasets identified and associated demographics.

<p>Summary of cross-sectional incidence datasets identified and associated demographics.</p

Flowchart describing the literature search process for age-stratified incidence data.

<p>Flowchart describing the literature search process for age-stratified incidence data.</p

Estimated time-varying A) serotype-specific force of infection in individuals under the threshold age and B) <i>R</i>0_<i>i</i> derived by fitting Model C to Nicaraguan data (2001–2007).

<p>Posterior median and 95% credible intervals shown.</p

Flowchart describing the literature search process for dengue seroprevalence surveys.

<p>Flowchart describing the literature search process for dengue seroprevalence surveys.</p

A) Force of infection and B) corresponding <i>R</i>0_<i>i</i> estimates of cross-sectional non-serotypes specific datasets fitted to Model A.

<p>Posterior median and 95% credible intervals shown.</p

Summary of PRNT surveys identified and associated demographics.

<p><i>^Number of serotypes known to have been in circulation</i>.</p><p>Summary of PRNT surveys identified and associated demographics.</p

Summary of cross-sectional non-serotype specific datasets identified and associated demographics.

<p>^ Survey date not given, noted as ‘pre-year of publication’. ⁺All assays were IgG or HI ELISAs. ^-Cross-sectional surveys from multiple years (2001–2007).</p><p>Summary of cross-sectional non-serotype specific datasets identified and associated demographics.</p

Comparison of weighted deming regression of force of infection estimates by country from cumulative incidence data and seroprevalence data.

<p>Each point is weighted depending on the error in both serology and incidence estimates, represented by the size of circles (larger circles indicating greater weight, i.e. smaller error).</p

Total force of infection (λ) estimates (for all 4 serotypes) derived from PRNT datasets fitted to Models A (treating PRNT data as IgG data) and D1–D4.

<p>Models D2–D4 allow for cross-protection between serotypes. Posterior median and 95% credible intervals shown.</p