Utilização das redes de gás natural para transporte e distribuição de H2

ABSTRACT: With the increasing importance of the role of H2 in the European and global energy systems (notably in Japan, United Kingdom, South Korea and Canada), there is na ongoing study and debate on the possible use of the existing natural gas grid infrastructure natural for H2 transport. At European level the following key issues are being discussed: Technical issues regarding the admissible and viable percentage of H2 blending in the grids and at what scale the corresponding regulation will be undertaken (national or European); Guarantees of origin certificates (GO); Articulation with current European legislation, and in particular the almost absence of mentions to H2 in the legislation in place.RESUMO: Com a crescente importância do papel do H2 nos sistemas energé-ticos Europeus e mundiais (notavelmente no Japão, Reino Unido, Coreia do Sul e Canadá), está em curso o estudo e discussão sobre as hipóteses de utilização das infraestruturas existentes da rede de gás natural para transporte de H2. À escala Europeia estão a ser debatidas as seguintes questões chave: Aspetos técnicos sobre a percentagem do blending de H2 admissível e viável nas redes e a escala a que será feita a regulação (nacional ou europeia); Certificados de origem do H2 (Guarantees of origin certificates - GO); A articulação com a legislação comunitária em vigor, em particular a quase total omissão do H2 na atual legislação Europeia.N/

Job creation potential for Portugal due to deployment of concentrated solar power plants

ABSTRACT: This document summarises a short exploratory assessment from LNEG on the potential for job creation due deployment of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants in Portugal. Currently in Portugal it is only installed a 3.6 MWth demonstration plant at the EMSP - Évora Molten Salt Platform1, deployed in 2018. In the existing prospective studies for the Portuguese energy system, PNEC 2030 - National Energy and Climate Plan 20302 and RNC2050 – Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap 2050, only the first refers to a planned deployment of 100 MWe and 300 MWe of CSP in Portugal by 2025 and 2030. Since the Portuguese renewable energy sources (RES) arena is very dynamic more CSP could be deployed in the coming years. Therefore, currently there is no available statistical data on historic job creation for CSP technologies in Portugal and for this exploratory assessment a review of available scientific literature and market data was made.N/

How much extreme weather events have affected European power generation in the past 30 years?

ABSTRACT: Power generation impacts due to extreme weather events (EWE), as floods, storms, cold waves, droughts, and heatwaves, are not well understood across larger spatial scales, especially in view of climate change. These events can se-verely affect our energy supply by interrupting the energy generation or its transmission, by interfering with fuel production and distribution, or by causing fuel and electricity shortages, potentially leading to price spikes.N/

Analyzing the Applicability of Random Forest-Based Models for the Forecast of Run-of-River Hydropower Generation

ABSTRACT: Analyzing the impact of climate variables into the operational planning processes is essential for the robust implementation of a sustainable power system. This paper deals with the modeling of the run-of-river hydropower production based on climate variables on the European scale. A better understanding of future run-of-river generation patterns has important implications for power systems with increasing shares of solar and wind power. Run-of-river plants are less intermittent than solar or wind but also less dispatchable than dams with storage capacity. However, translating time series of climate data (precipitation and air temperature) into time series of run-of-river-based hydropower generation is not an easy task as it is necessary to capture the complex relationship between the availability of water and the generation of electricity. This task is also more complex when performed for a large interconnected area. In this work, a model is built for several European countries by using machine learning techniques. In particular, we compare the accuracy of models based on the Random Forest algorithm and show that a more accurate model is obtained when a finer spatial resolution of climate data is introduced. We then discuss the practical applicability of a machine learning model for the medium term forecasts and show that some very context specific but influential events are hard to capture.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Storage options

RESUMO: A ALER e a AMER , em parceria com a EDM - Electricidade de Moçambique e com o apoio do GET.invest Mozambique - financiado pela União Europeia e Alemanha, e integrado no programa europeu GET.invest organizaram o evento híbrido "Armazenamento e Integração de Renováveis na Rede em Moçambique" que decorreu no dia 25 de Maio, no Indy Congress Hotel em Maputo, com transmissão online. Neste evento foi apresentado o estado atual e os desenvolvimentos futuros dos projetos de energias renováveis e da rede elétrica em Moçambique, foram debatidas as soluções de armazenamento e integração da produção de origem renovável na rede e foi discutido o quadro técnico e regulamentar existente.N/

Historical variation of IEA energy and CO2 emission projections: implications for future energy modeling

ABSTRACT: The World Energy Outlook reports produced by the International Energy Agency have long been considered the "gold standard" in terms of energy modeling and projecting future trends. It is thus extremely important to assess how well its projections are aligned with sustainable development goals as well as closely tracking observed, historical values. In this work we analyzed thirteen sets of World Energy Outlook projections from the last 25 years. Different scenarios were considered for the following regions and countries: world, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD North America, China, India, Russia, and Africa. The maximum variation between the projections for 2030 CO2 emissions from the energy sector, made between 2006 and 2018 for OECD, Europe and North America were found to be comparable with the gap between the Paris Agreement goals and the voluntary (unconditional) nationally determined contributions to remain below a 2 degrees C global temperature increase. For the same period, projections for the percentage of renewable electricity exhibited maximum variations between 51% and 96%, signaling a huge underestimation. We discuss the significance of overestimating energy demand and underestimating the rate of renewable energy implementation in the context of 2030 climate and energy policy targets, as well as desirable methodological changes to energy modeling under aggressive climate mitigation policies.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Competing water uses between agriculture and energy: Quantifying future climate change impacts for the Portuguese power sector

ABSTRACT: Climate change may increase water needs for irrigation in southern Europe competing with other water uses, such as hydropower, which may likely be impacted by lower precipitation. Climate change will also potentially affect the variability and availability of other renewable energy resources (solar and wind) and electricity consumption patterns. This work quantifies the effect of competition for water use between irrigation and hydropower in the future 2050 Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change projections. It uses the power system eTIMES_PT model to assess the combined effects of climate change on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sectorconsidering changes in irrigation, hydropower, wind and solar PV availability. eTIMES_PT is a linear optimisation model that satisfies electricity demand at minimal total power system cost. Results show that, by 2050, climate change can lead to an increase in annual irrigation water needs up to 12% in Tagus and 19% in Douro watersheds (from 2005 values), with substantially higher values for spring (up to 84%). Combining these increased water needs with the expected reduction in river runoff can lead to a decline in summer and spring hydropower capacity factors from half to three times below current values. By 2050, concurrent water uses under climate change can reduce hydropower generation by 26–56% less than historically observed, mainly in summer and spring. Higher solar PV, complemented with batteries’ electricity storage, can offset the lower hydropower availability, but this will lead to higher electricity prices. Adequate transboundary water management agreements and reducing water losses in irrigation systems will play a key role in mitigating climate impacts in both agriculture and power sector.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Usos de água concorrentes para a agricultura e geração de eletricidade: quantificação dos impactos das alterações climáticas no setor eletroprodutor Português [Comunicação oral]

RESUMO: Neste webinar apresentamos os resultados de um estudo do LNEG e do CENSE – NOVA para 2050 focando o impacto combinado das alterações climáticas segundo o Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 e a variação expectável na utilização de água para agricultura tanto em Portugal como em Espanha. A análise estuda as bacias do Douro e Tejo e o impacto que se poderá sentir no sistema eletroprodutor nacional como um todo.N/

How much extreme weather events have affected European power generation in the past three decades?

ABSTRACT: Extreme weather events (EWE) can affect energy supply, particularly when energy systems are significantly reliant on renewable energy sources, highly vulnerable to climate and weather conditions. We combine observational energy data from EUROSTAT with records of EWE, between 1990 and 2019, to evaluate European power plants capacity factors (CF) responses to those events. Using a statistical compositing analysis, we show that years with floods and storms increased annual European hydropower CF by 7 and 5.8%, respectively, compared to non-EWE years, while CF of fossil power plants decreased (-2.8%). Similar behaviours are found for Central and Mediterranean countries. From 1993 to 2004 to 2005-2016 European hydropower tripled during floods and quintupled during storms suggesting that the events are becoming more severe or there is more efficient water use. On the contrary, from 1993 to 2016, in every year with droughts/heatwaves the European hydropower decreased (-6.5%), with a subsequent increase of fossil CF (2.3%). Such behaviour is also observed across Central and Eastern Europe. Cold waves negatively affected solar photovoltaic output at the European level and Central Europe (-5%). Vulnerability of wind power plants to floods is increasing: from 1993 to 2004 to 2005-2016 there is 3-fold decrease in the European wind CF; from one flood year to the following, wind CF decreases in Central (- 1.9%yr- 1) and Eastern Europe (- 3.7%yr- 1). During droughts/heatwaves, wind CF increases in Central Europe (2%yr- 1), but decreases in Mediterranean (- 3%yr- 1). Shifting to renewable energy sources is key to decarbonization. It's crucial understanding the historical impacts of EWE in the power system towards its resilience and stability.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Seasonal Forecast Climate Data and Hydropower Production in the Douro Basin, in Portugal

This article belongs to the Proceedings of the 4th EWaS: International Conference: Valuing the Water, Carbon, Ecological Footprints of Human ActivitiesABSTRACT: The project CLIM2POWER aims at developing a climate service including state-of-the art seasonal climate forecasts in the planning of the operation of the power systems. This work presents part of the project, addressing the forecasting of the hydropower generation in a case study area, the Portuguese part of the transboundary Douro River basin. Rainfall-runoff modelling was performed on a daily scale using three ensemble members of seasonal climate data (six months) for Portuguese territory crossed with three daily inflow scenarios from Spanish territory defined according to historical observed data. The obtained results reflect the fact that seasonal climate forecast present a wide variation of scenarios and also the fact that hydropower production in Portuguese territory is highly dependent on transboundary inflows. On the other hand, the implemented approach successfully produced consistent runoff and hydropower production results although improvements on the identification of the most probable scenarios are yet required.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio