Positive and Normative Issues of Economic Growth with Infectious Disease

This paper uses a variant of the Lotka-Volterra system explaining the dynamic interaction between populations of infected and healthy individuals in which the demographic and epidemiological parameters (the net healthy birth rate, the death rate of the infected and the infection rate) are functions of economic variables and some simple economic growth models to examine deterministic growth paths of the system with an exogenous savings rate. Demographic-epidemiological parameters depend on productive capital which combined with healthy workers produces output. We find that there are generally multiple steady states. The system usually converges to a steady state in which the economy moderates the disease. If capital accumulation is set optimally to maximise welfare then there may be multiple steady states and optimal growth paths generally display four dimensional saddle point properties. Extensions of the framework to allow for density dependent infection, recovery from the disease and alternative social welfare functions are analysed.economic growth; infectious disease; dynamic optimal control.

General solution of an exact correlation function factorization in conformal field theory

We discuss a correlation function factorization, which relates a three-point function to the square root of three two-point functions. This factorization is known to hold for certain scaling operators at the two-dimensional percolation point and in a few other cases. The correlation functions are evaluated in the upper half-plane (or any conformally equivalent region) with operators at two arbitrary points on the real axis, and a third arbitrary point on either the real axis or in the interior. This type of result is of interest because it is both exact and universal, relates higher-order correlation functions to lower-order ones, and has a simple interpretation in terms of cluster or loop probabilities in several statistical models. This motivated us to use the techniques of conformal field theory to determine the general conditions for its validity. Here, we discover a correlation function which factorizes in this way for any central charge c, generalizing previous results. In particular, the factorization holds for either FK (Fortuin-Kasteleyn) or spin clusters in the Q-state Potts models; it also applies to either the dense or dilute phases of the O(n) loop models. Further, only one other non-trivial set of highest-weight operators (in an irreducible Verma module) factorizes in this way. In this case the operators have negative dimension (for c < 1) and do not seem to have a physical realization.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, v2 minor revision

The density of critical percolation clusters touching the boundaries of strips and squares

We consider the density of two-dimensional critical percolation clusters, constrained to touch one or both boundaries, in infinite strips, half-infinite strips, and squares, as well as several related quantities for the infinite strip. Our theoretical results follow from conformal field theory, and are compared with high-precision numerical simulation. For example, we show that the density of clusters touching both boundaries of an infinite strip of unit width (i.e. crossing clusters) is proportional to $(\sin \pi y)^{-5/48}\{[\cos(\pi y/2)]^{1/3} +[\sin (\pi y/2)]^{1/3}-1\}$. We also determine numerically contours for the density of clusters crossing squares and long rectangles with open boundaries on the sides, and compare with theory for the density along an edge.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. Minor revision

Factorization of correlations in two-dimensional percolation on the plane and torus

Recently, Delfino and Viti have examined the factorization of the three-point density correlation function P_3 at the percolation point in terms of the two-point density correlation functions P_2. According to conformal invariance, this factorization is exact on the infinite plane, such that the ratio R(z_1, z_2, z_3) = P_3(z_1, z_2, z_3) [P_2(z_1, z_2) P_2(z_1, z_3) P_2(z_2, z_3)]^{1/2} is not only universal but also a constant, independent of the z_i, and in fact an operator product expansion (OPE) coefficient. Delfino and Viti analytically calculate its value (1.022013...) for percolation, in agreement with the numerical value 1.022 found previously in a study of R on the conformally equivalent cylinder. In this paper we confirm the factorization on the plane numerically using periodic lattices (tori) of very large size, which locally approximate a plane. We also investigate the general behavior of R on the torus, and find a minimum value of R approx. 1.0132 when the three points are maximally separated. In addition, we present a simplified expression for R on the plane as a function of the SLE parameter kappa.Comment: Small corrections (final version). In press, J. Phys.

Anchored Critical Percolation Clusters and 2-D Electrostatics

We consider the densities of clusters, at the percolation point of a two-dimensional system, which are anchored in various ways to an edge. These quantities are calculated by use of conformal field theory and computer simulations. We find that they are given by simple functions of the potentials of 2-D electrostatic dipoles, and that a kind of superposition {\it cum} factorization applies. Our results broaden this connection, already known from previous studies, and we present evidence that it is more generally valid. An exact result similar to the Kirkwood superposition approximation emerges.Comment: 4 pages, 1 (color) figure. More numerics, minor corrections, references adde

Infectious Disease Control by Vaccines Giving Full or Partial Immunity

We use a simple Lotka-Volterra model of the disease transmission process to analyse the dynamic population structure when a vaccine is available at a constant price through time which gives partial immunity to the disease. In contrast to earlier results for the full immunity case, we find that there may be multiple stationary states and instability. In contrast to earlier work which has only considered policies in steady states, we consider the dynamic effects of different dynamic vaccination policies on any solution path for the case of publicly subsidised vaccines. We find that in the partial immunity case a procyclical policy is desirable but for the full immunity case a countercyclical policy is desirable.