FOOD SAFETY RISK PERCEPTION AND CONSUMER CHOICE OF SPECIALTY MEATS

Consumer perception issues and recent microbial outbreaks in the livestock industry continue to stifle demand for specialty meats in the United States. This study was designed to explore impacts of risk perception issues on consumer choice of bison meat. A stated preference discrete choice random utility model, a joint risk perception/product choice model, and a probability of frequency method to aggregating risk scenarios, were used for a range of food safety/certification regimes. Perceived risk reduces bison consumption, but its effect declines with shifts to more regulatory control inherent in the different certification regimes.food safety, bison, specialty meat, nested logit model, risk perception, product choice, discrete choice experiment, probability of frequency method, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries,

VALUE-AT-RISK AND FOOD SAFETY LOSSES IN TURKEY PROCESSING

Food safety risks and microbial outbreaks have significant health impacts on society as a whole, as well as economic loss to food processing firms. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), an estimated 76 million foodborne illnesses occur each year in the United States. Of these cases, 325,000 hospitalizations and 5,000 deaths occur each year (Mead et al., 1999). The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Services (USDA-FSIS) (1996) estimated that approximately 4,000 deaths each year are attributed to contamination in meat and poultry products. For food processing firms, microbial outbreaks often result in significant economic losses: food recalls, lost market share, and decreased consumer confidence. The intangible nature of aggregate economic losses makes it difficult for firm managers to predict firm-level economic impacts of food safety losses and adopt effective risk mitigation strategies. Developments in Value-at-Risk (VaR) methods provide an analytical framework to resolve this problem. This report develops VaR models to predict food safety risks in turkey processing, under alternative risk mitigation strategies. The FSIS records of food recalls from 1994 to 2003 indicated that as much as $1.35 billion in losses were realized in the turkey industry. The objective of this report is to determine the firm-level risk reduction capabilities and performances of Pathogen Reduction/Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (PR/HACCP) systems using VaR and out-of-sample testing for robustness of findings. The VaR results suggest that characteristic turkey processing plants, on average, were losing$0.06905 per lb not more than 5% of the time in any given month in the period prior to PR/HACCP implementation. However, after PR/HACCP implementation, turkey processing plants were losing $0.04936 per lb. In the period after PR/HACCP implementation, losses incurred under generic and augmented PR/HACCP for the small turkey processing plant were not significantly different. The out-of-sample tests indicated that VaR was adequate in predicting firm-level food safety economic losses. The results of this report provide private and public policymakers with alternatives to improve PR/HACCP implementation.PR/HACCP, Value-at-Risk, Salmonella, Turkey Processing, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Commodity-based Trade and Market Access for Developing Country Livestock Products: The Case of Beef Exports from Ethiopia

While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia’s export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access.SPS, livestock, market access, system dynamics, Ethiopia, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Q10, Q13,

Qatar Siege : Impact On Consumer Behaviour

This poster analyses the effect of the siege placed on Qatar by Saudi Arabic, Bahrain, Egypt, and UAE, on consumer behaviour. This is done by focusing on the food industry, which was majorly impacted. Other sectors that effected consumer behaviour are also explored to understand the overall outcome

Consumer Willingness to Pay for Breads Marketed as "Low-Carbohydrate"

Bread producers are taking advantage of healthy feeding habits by developing new "low carbohydrate" products to entice customers. These low carbohydrate breads are generally more expensive than conventional types. This study tests the hypothesis that consumers are willing to pay higher premium for "low carbohydrate" breads at various locations and markets. We use retail data in a hedonic pricing framework to estimate the premium paid for the "low carbohydrate" attribute of bread. Results show that the implicit price of the "low carbohydrate" attribute of bread ranges from about 0.06¢ to 1.1¢ per gram, reflecting the amount consumers are willing to pay above the price of conventional bread.low carbohydrate bread, hedonic price, willingness to pay, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, D12,

OPTIMAL GRAZING PRESSURE UNDER OUTPUT PRICE AND PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY WITH ALTERNATIVE FUNCTIONAL FORMS

This study uses a Cox parametric bootstrap test to select between two specifications of the von Liebig hypothesis, a switching regression model and a non-linear mixed stochastic plateau function. The selected production function was used to determine optimal stocking density for dual-purpose winter wheat, under production and output price uncertainty. The switching regression approach was rejected in favor of the non-linear mixed stochastic plateau function. The relatively small difference in optimal stocking density between risk aversion and risk neutrality suggests that risk-aversion is much less important in explaining producer response to uncertainty than is nonlinearity in the production function.Agribusiness,

Effects of regular off-farm activities on household agricultural income: Evidence from Kenya’s Kerio Valley

This paper contributes to clarifying the scientific debate on whether off-farm activities hurt or help agricultural income. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the impacts of rural household’s participation in regular off-farm activities on agricultural income. The literature indicates that off-farm activities affect rural household’s income but studies on their effect on agricultural income have remained largely inconclusive. Determining how off farm activities affect agricultural income is highly relevant for the decisions of poor rural households and policy makers to allocate resources efficiently and increase investment to combat poverty. Investigation of the effects of regular off-farm activities is carried out in the following logical sequence: we performed surveys to gather information from rural households located in the Kerio Valley in Kenya; using the matching technique, we compared agricultural income per capita between households that took part in regular off-farm activities and those that did not. Methodological tools of the research were the results of a three-year project focusing on improving rural income. The object of research is the households in Kerio Valley in Kenya because they practiced the typical mix of farm and off-farm activities in rural Kenya. The empirical results of the analysis showed at first that household’s participation in regular off-farm activities had no significant effect on household agricultural income per capita. However, by splitting agricultural income into crop and livestock incomes, we found that participation in regular off-farm activities did not affect crop income per capita but it increased livestock income per capita. The results can be useful to policy makers because it shows the existence of a symbiotic association between regular off-farm activities and livestock production. The results also confirm that creating opportunities for rural households to engage in off-farm activities generates supplemental revenues, and more importantly, reliable assets

Determinants of Intra-GCC Food Trade

Using panel data for six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1995-2014, we assess the impacts of several major economic variables on intra-GCC food exports, and on GCC food exports to the world. The GCC customs union had minimal impact on intra-GCC food exports, but occasioned a significant reduction in GCC food exports. Unlike GCC food exports, intra-GCC food exports occurred among countries with similar relative factor endowments, in agreement with the Linder Hypothesis. Rising incomes and exchange rates played significant roles in both intra-GCC food exports and GCC food exports, while distance has lost its once-dominant role.This publication was made possible by the NPRP award (NPRP 6-064-4-001) from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of the Qatar Foundation).Scopu