Food production in Zambia : the impact of selected structural adjustment policies

The paper examines the impact of selected structural adjustment policies on food production in Zambia. Using a four-year panel of post-harvest data, a system of six crops, two variable inputs and three fixed inputs is estimated. The resulting supply responses suggest a negatively sloped supply curve for sorghum and millet, which is attributed to the presence of credit constraints. Simulations are conducted to asses the impact of the removal of subsidies and exchange rate controls. The results indicate that these policies have led to increased food production although the magnitude of the increase is in general not very large. The results also indicate a significant fall in fertilizer use. Information, credit and distance to markets are also very important variables for food production. Deliberate efforts are needed to develop both input and output markets and to provide more formal credit institutions targeted at small-scale farmers

Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia

ABSTRACT The dissertation comprises four chapters focusing on issues concerning policy re-forms and monetary policy in Zambia. Chapter 1 briefly outlines the theoretical foundations for the reforms undertaken in Zambia since the mid 1980s and the process thereof. The main issues addressed were the removal of interest rate and credit controls, exchange rate devaluation and the use of indirect instruments in implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy also began to focus more on stabilisation through bringing the inflation rate down. The review indicates that although the control of inflation is still difficult and figures are still in double digit levels, annual inflation rates have reduced significantly compared to levels achieved in the early 1990s. The nominal exchange rate has been depreciating prompting increased intervention from the central bank. Despite the increase in nominal interest rates, real deposit rates have remained negative. Chapter two analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in Zambia. Vector auto -regressions are estimated for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions are examined to see whether there are any changes observed in the monetary transmission mechanism after the reforms. Different systems are estimated in each period using alternate variables as measures of monetary policy shocks. The results show that contractionary monetary policy is followed by a fall in both output and prices. When compared, results from the two estimation periods show that both the responsiveness of prices and output to policy shocks and the magnitude of their forecast error variance decompositions explained by these variables have increased since the reforms. The results also show that the impact lags have reduced. There is evidence of the bank lending channel both before and after the reforms. Of the mechanisms estimated, the exchange rate mechanism seems to be the most important mechanism for transmission of policy shocks to both prices and output during the post-reform period. Chapter three investigates whether monetary aggregates have useful information for predicting inflation other than that provided by inflation itself. Fore-casting experiments are conducted to see whether monetary aggregates and selected financial sector variables are useful in predicting inflation. We perform forecasting experiments and compare the performance of different models. We also estimate an error correction model of inflation. Of the monetary aggregates considered, M2 contains the most information and its growth rate significant in the inflation model. The external sector variables are also important. The results indicate that inflation exhibits a high level of inertia suggesting the presence of implicit indexation and significant inflationary expectations possibly due to past fiscal effects and low policy credibility. Overall, the foreign sector variables seem to be more important for movements in prices than monetary aggregates even in the long run. The importance of the exchange rate to stabilisation policy in Zambia is underscored by the results obtained in chapters 2 and 3. In this paper, we pursue this idea by investigating the effect of central bank intervention on ex-change rates in Zambia. Using a GARCH (1, 1) model of the exchange rate, we simultaneously estimate the effect of cumulative intervention on the mean and variance of the exchange rate. We find that central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the mean but reduces the variance of the exchange rate. The explanation leans towards speculative bandwagons and a 'leaning against the wind' strategy. Although there is no attempt to distinguish through which channel intervention operates, we argue that this is more likely to be a signalling effect rather than a portfolio balance effect. This effect operates mainly through the supply and demand of foreign exchange in the market.monetary policy; financial reforms; zambia

Some happy, others sad: exploring environmental justice in solid waste management in Kinshasa, The Democratic Republic of Congo

Published ArticleThis paper explores the concept of environmental justice (EJ) in solid waste management (SWM) in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It evaluates the extent to which EJ occurs in SWM and discusses the factors accounting for this state of affairs. The paper examines the relevant theoretical framework(s) and mechanisms that would facilitate the attainment of EJ in Kinshasa. It is argued that solid waste (SW) often ends up in the poorest and least powerful communities in the cities of the DRC. A qualitative research methodology, which includes exhaustive critical review of the literature, system analysis, reflections from best practices through case studies and discussion with stakeholders, was used for this study. Findings revealed that SWM in Kinshasa is a duty entrusted to publicly-funded municipal authorities. There are evidences of a clear divide between the rich and poor neighbourhoods in the manner SW is managed. This is an inequality that has only recently begun to be recognised as injustice practices in SWM. It is argued that a politico-cultural mechanism on remedying SWM inequities could enable changes that will address EJ in Kinshasa. Such a solution will go directly against the prevailing notion “some happy, others sad”

Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia

ABSTRACT The dissertation comprises four chapters focusing on issues concerning policy re-forms and monetary policy in Zambia. Chapter 1 briefly outlines the theoretical foundations for the reforms undertaken in Zambia since the mid 1980s and the process thereof. The main issues addressed were the removal of interest rate and credit controls, exchange rate devaluation and the use of indirect instruments in implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy also began to focus more on stabilisation through bringing the inflation rate down. The review indicates that although the control of inflation is still difficult and figures are still in double digit levels, annual inflation rates have reduced significantly compared to levels achieved in the early 1990s. The nominal exchange rate has been depreciating prompting increased intervention from the central bank. Despite the increase in nominal interest rates, real deposit rates have remained negative. Chapter two analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in Zambia. Vector auto -regressions are estimated for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions are examined to see whether there are any changes observed in the monetary transmission mechanism after the reforms. Different systems are estimated in each period using alternate variables as measures of monetary policy shocks. The results show that contractionary monetary policy is followed by a fall in both output and prices. When compared, results from the two estimation periods show that both the responsiveness of prices and output to policy shocks and the magnitude of their forecast error variance decompositions explained by these variables have increased since the reforms. The results also show that the impact lags have reduced. There is evidence of the bank lending channel both before and after the reforms. Of the mechanisms estimated, the exchange rate mechanism seems to be the most important mechanism for transmission of policy shocks to both prices and output during the post-reform period. Chapter three investigates whether monetary aggregates have useful information for predicting inflation other than that provided by inflation itself. Fore-casting experiments are conducted to see whether monetary aggregates and selected financial sector variables are useful in predicting inflation. We perform forecasting experiments and compare the performance of different models. We also estimate an error correction model of inflation. Of the monetary aggregates considered, M2 contains the most information and its growth rate significant in the inflation model. The external sector variables are also important. The results indicate that inflation exhibits a high level of inertia suggesting the presence of implicit indexation and significant inflationary expectations possibly due to past fiscal effects and low policy credibility. Overall, the foreign sector variables seem to be more important for movements in prices than monetary aggregates even in the long run. The importance of the exchange rate to stabilisation policy in Zambia is underscored by the results obtained in chapters 2 and 3. In this paper, we pursue this idea by investigating the effect of central bank intervention on ex-change rates in Zambia. Using a GARCH (1, 1) model of the exchange rate, we simultaneously estimate the effect of cumulative intervention on the mean and variance of the exchange rate. We find that central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the mean but reduces the variance of the exchange rate. The explanation leans towards speculative bandwagons and a 'leaning against the wind' strategy. Although there is no attempt to distinguish through which channel intervention operates, we argue that this is more likely to be a signalling effect rather than a portfolio balance effect. This effect operates mainly through the supply and demand of foreign exchange in the market

Structure and profitability in the banking sector

The relationship between profit and bank market structure continues to raise questions amongst both policy makers and researchers. While some evidence supports a positive relationship between market structure, competition and profitability, other evidence seems to support the fact that profitability and related market share result from efficiency. Moreover, extant literature on South Africa is conflicting and seems to contradict anecdotal evidence. While some studies point to a competitive environment despite concentration, others suggest that concentration in the banking sector is harmful. Prosecution of banks for uncompetitive behavior also casts doubt on the conclusion that the South African banking sector is competitive. This paper examines the relationship between structure and conduct in the South African banking sector. Using the Berger (1995) discriminating tests, the effect of industry concentration, market share and efficiency on three measures of profitability is estimated on a panel of 11 South African banks for data between 1994 and 2016. The results show that concentration affects conduct. The profit-structure relationship is dominantly explained by the structure conduct hypothesis and partly by the efficient scale hypothesis. These results suggest that policy which discourages concentration and promotes competition in the banking sector is socially beneficial

Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia

ABSTRACT The dissertation comprises four chapters focusing on issues concerning policy re-forms and monetary policy in Zambia. Chapter 1 briefly outlines the theoretical foundations for the reforms undertaken in Zambia since the mid 1980s and the process thereof. The main issues addressed were the removal of interest rate and credit controls, exchange rate devaluation and the use of indirect instruments in implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy also began to focus more on stabilisation through bringing the inflation rate down. The review indicates that although the control of inflation is still difficult and figures are still in double digit levels, annual inflation rates have reduced significantly compared to levels achieved in the early 1990s. The nominal exchange rate has been depreciating prompting increased intervention from the central bank. Despite the increase in nominal interest rates, real deposit rates have remained negative. Chapter two analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in Zambia. Vector auto -regressions are estimated for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions are examined to see whether there are any changes observed in the monetary transmission mechanism after the reforms. Different systems are estimated in each period using alternate variables as measures of monetary policy shocks. The results show that contractionary monetary policy is followed by a fall in both output and prices. When compared, results from the two estimation periods show that both the responsiveness of prices and output to policy shocks and the magnitude of their forecast error variance decompositions explained by these variables have increased since the reforms. The results also show that the impact lags have reduced. There is evidence of the bank lending channel both before and after the reforms. Of the mechanisms estimated, the exchange rate mechanism seems to be the most important mechanism for transmission of policy shocks to both prices and output during the post-reform period. Chapter three investigates whether monetary aggregates have useful information for predicting inflation other than that provided by inflation itself. Fore-casting experiments are conducted to see whether monetary aggregates and selected financial sector variables are useful in predicting inflation. We perform forecasting experiments and compare the performance of different models. We also estimate an error correction model of inflation. Of the monetary aggregates considered, M2 contains the most information and its growth rate significant in the inflation model. The external sector variables are also important. The results indicate that inflation exhibits a high level of inertia suggesting the presence of implicit indexation and significant inflationary expectations possibly due to past fiscal effects and low policy credibility. Overall, the foreign sector variables seem to be more important for movements in prices than monetary aggregates even in the long run. The importance of the exchange rate to stabilisation policy in Zambia is underscored by the results obtained in chapters 2 and 3. In this paper, we pursue this idea by investigating the effect of central bank intervention on ex-change rates in Zambia. Using a GARCH (1, 1) model of the exchange rate, we simultaneously estimate the effect of cumulative intervention on the mean and variance of the exchange rate. We find that central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the mean but reduces the variance of the exchange rate. The explanation leans towards speculative bandwagons and a 'leaning against the wind' strategy. Although there is no attempt to distinguish through which channel intervention operates, we argue that this is more likely to be a signalling effect rather than a portfolio balance effect. This effect operates mainly through the supply and demand of foreign exchange in the market

The Life Cycle of Tussock Moth (Lymantria curvifera) and the Phytochemical Analysis of the Host Plant, Talisay Tree (Terminalia catappa)

Talisay trees were infested by numerous black unknown larvae that left it entirely leafless at the Adventist University of the Philippines campus. No record of infestation among Talisay trees has been established that prompted the researchers to study the life cycle of the larvae and the host plant. This study examined the relationship between the Tussock moth (Lymantria curvifera) specie and its host plant, Talisay tree (Terminalia catappa). More so, the study aimed to identify the phytochemicals present in the Talisay tree. Results showed that the tree is rich in glycosides and tannins that aid in the moth’s life cycle development. Other phytochemicals present in the tree include flavonoids, saponins and sterols. The entire life cycle of the Tussock moth takes two months to complete from oviposition to adult. After oviposition, it takes an average of five days for the egg to hatch to larvae. The larvae starts with a smooth body, as it develops, the body develops hairy tussocks. The larval stage progresses to the pupal stage after an average of five days and an average of seventeen days to become a fully developed adult moth

Perspectives on integrated water resource management and its relevance in understanding the water-energy-climate change nexus in South Africa

It is increasingly acknowledged that the water-energy-climate change (WECC) nexus is one of the synergies that pose a significant risk to achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs), specifically numbers six, seven and thirteen. There are suggestions that climate change outcomes such as increased temperature and drought episodes have implications for water availability, which in turn affects energy production in countries dependent on hydropower, pump-storage or coal-generated electricity, including South Africa. This development therefore calls for improved understanding of how to effectively manage the challenges that arise from this nexus, to mitigate the impacts it may have on achieving the associated SDGs. This study, which is based on an in-depth appraisal of existing developments, assessed the potential of the integrated water resource management framework in understanding the WECC nexus and its implications for South Africa’s sustainable development endeavours, particularly in the context of water resource management and utilisation. The study revealed South Africa’s lack of integrated, effective, and efficient institutions and policy framework to comprehensively manage the challenges emanating from this nexus. It identified an urgent need to develop systems and processes through which South Africa can handle the challenges as well as capture the benefits that may be obtained from this nexus

Communities at the Centre of River Basin Management for Sustainable Development in Northwest Cameroon

Access to a reliable water resource can be a key driver for socio-economic development. Both physical and economic water scarcities are negatively affecting the economies of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly rural communities with the latter considered a crucial challenge. This paper examines the role of local resource users in river basin management for sustainable development in Northwest Cameroon. Using secondary data and empirical evidence collected from three rural districts (Mbengwi, Njinikom, and Ndu) in Northwest Cameroon, it is argued that the involvement and engagement of local resource users and community-based organisations in decision-making processes in river basin management can contribute to sustainable water supplies and enhance sustainable development. In the context of rural communities in the Northwestern part of Cameroon where water supply is mostly through gravity-led techniques, river basins are the main sources of community water supply. It is, therefore, argued in this paper that sustainable development will be possible through a polycentric water governance approach. Thus, clarifying issues of participation, integration, and jurisdiction between the stakeholders (central and local governments and community groups) is crucial for sustainable outcomes. Until the full participation and engagement of local groups and resource users in decision-making processes are achieved, uncertainty will dominate river basin management in Northwest Cameroon