Quantifying the Population-level Effect of the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign in Israel: a Modeling Study

BackgroundEstimating real-world vaccine effectiveness is challenging since a variety of population factors can impact vaccine effectiveness.We aimed to assess the population-level reduction in cumulative SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and mortality due to the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Israel during January-February, 2021.MethodsAn SIR model and a Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA) statistical approach was used. Daily counts of tested positive and of vaccine doses administered obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, were used to calibrate the model. The model was parameterized using values derived from a previous phase of the pandemic during which similar lockdown and other preventive measures were implemented in order to take into account the effect of these preventing measures on COVID-19 spread.ResultsOur model predicts for the total population a reduction of 648,585 SARS-CoV-2 cases (75% confidence interval [CI]: 25,877–1,396,963) during the first 2 months of the vaccination campaign. The number of averted hospitalizations for moderate – severe conditions were 16,101 (75 % CI: 2,010–33,035) and reduction of death was estimated as 5,123 (CI: 388–10,815) fatalities.Among children aged 0-19 years, we estimated a reduction of 163,436 (CI: 0–433,233) SARS-CoV-2 cases which we consider as an indirect effect of the vaccine.ConclusionsOur results suggest that the rapid vaccination campaign prevented hundreds of thousands of new cases as well as thousands of hospitalizations and fatalities and has probably averted a major health care crisis

Immunogenicity and Safety of a Third COVID-19 BNT162b2 mRNA Vaccine Dose in 5- to 11-Year Olds

In this ongoing study, substantially increased ancestral SARSCoV-2 neutralizing responses were observed 1 month after a third 10-µg BNT162b2 dose given to 5 to 11-year olds versus neutralizing responses post-dose 2. After dose 3, increased neutralizing responses against Omicron BA.1 and BA.4/BA.5 strains were also observed. The safety/tolerability profile was acceptable.Peer reviewe

Defining the Incidence and Associated Morbidity and Mortality of Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Among Children with Chronic Diseases

Introduction: REGAL (RSV Evidence—a Geographical Archive of the Literature) has provided a comprehensive review of the published evidence in the field of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Western countries over the last 20 years. This review covers the risk and burden of RSV infection in children with underlying medical conditions or chronic diseases (excluding prematurity and congenital heart disease). Methods: A systematic review of publications between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2015 across PubMed, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and Clinicaltrials.gov was supplemented by papers identified by the authors through March 2017. Studies reporting data for hospital visits/admissions for RSV infection as well as studies reporting RSV-associated morbidity and mortality were included. Study quality and strength of evidence (SOE) were graded. Results: A total of 2703 studies were identified and 58 were included. Down syndrome, irrespective of prematurity and congenital heart disease (moderate SOE), immunocompromised children (low SOE), cystic fibrosis (low SOE), and neurologic conditions (low SOE) were associated with a significantly increased risk of RSV hospitalization. A number of other congenital malformations and chronic conditions were also associated with severe RSV disease (low SOE). In general, pre-existing disease was also a predisposing factor for RSV-related mortality (low SOE). Conclusion: Severe RSV infection in infants and young children with underlying medical conditions or chronic diseases poses a significant health burden. Further studies are needed to fully quantify the epidemiology, burden and outcomes in these populations, in particular RSV-attributable mortality

Past, Present and Future Approaches to the Prevention and Treatment of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Children

Introduction: The REGAL (RSV Evidence – A Geographical Archive of the Literature) series has provided a comprehensive review of the published evidence in the field of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Western countries over the last 20 years. This seventh and final publication covers the past, present and future approaches to the prevention and treatment of RSV infection among infants and children. Methods: A systematic review was undertaken of publications between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2017 across PubMed, Embase and The Cochrane Library. Studies reporting data on the effectiveness and tolerability of prophylactic and therapeutic agents for RSV infection were included. Study quality and strength of evidence (SOE) were graded using recognized criteria. A further nonsystematic search of the published literature and Clinicaltrials.gov on antiviral therapies and RSV vaccines currently in development was also undertaken. Results: The systematic review identified 1441 studies of which 161 were included. Management of RSV remains centered around prophylaxis with the monoclonal antibody palivizumab, which has proven effective in reducing RSV hospitalization (RSVH) in preterm infants OpenSPiltSPi 36 weeks’ gestational age (72% reduction), children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (65% reduction), and infants with hemodynamically significant congenital heart disease (53% reduction) (high SOE). Palivizumab has also shown to be effective in reducing recurrent wheezing following RSVH (high SOE). Treatment of RSV with ribavirin has conflicting success (moderate SOE). Antibodies with increased potency and extended half-life are currently entering phase 3 trials. There are approximately 15 RSV vaccines in clinical development targeting the infant directly or indirectly via the mother. Conclusion: Palivizumab remains the only product licensed for RSV prophylaxis, and only available for high-risk infants. For the general population, there are several promising vaccines and monoclonal antibodies in various stages of clinical development, with the aim to significantly reduce the global healthcare impact of this common viral infection. Funding: AbbVie

Comparison of measles plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) and measles virus-specific IgG ELISA for assessment of immunogenicity of measles-mumps-rubella vaccination at 5–7 months of age and maternal measles antibodies

Background: Assessing the risk of measles outbreaks and identifying the susceptible parts of the population is essential to timely intervention. Infants between 6–12 months are increasingly susceptible to measles but evaluating the performance of high throughput enzyme immunoassays (ELISAs) in infants < 9 months of age is lacking. Methods: A commercially available ELISA kit (Creative Diagnostics, DEIA359) for estimating measles seroprotection was evaluated in infants 5–7 months of age. In an immunogenicity substudy in the Danish MMR trial conducted between 2019–2021, infants (and mothers at baseline) were sampled before and one month after measles-mumps-rubella vaccination (MMR) or placebo as well as one month after routine MMR at 15 months. Measles IgG ELISA was compared to the gold standard but labor-intensive measles plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) by Pearson and Spearman correlations and by estimating sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). Findings: Measles IgG levels compared to PRNT antibodies had a Pearson’s correlation coefficient between 0.10–0.24. Seroprotection rates measured by ELISA in young infants were 10–14% lower than measured by PRNT. The sensitivity of the ELISA to detect serological protection compared to PRNT in the infant population differed markedly across sampling time points and was 14%, 40%, and 92% at baseline, post-intervention, and post-routine MMR, whereas the specificity was 99%, 93%, and 43%, respectively. The PPV and NPV were 68% and 87% in infants at baseline. Interpretation: The correlation between measles IgG and PRNT antibodies was low. Seroprotection was underestimated using ELISA. High-accuracy tests are needed to avoid misclassifications and practices that lead to primary or secondary vaccine failure or retention of vaccination in outbreak settings. Baseline PPV and NPV suggested some applicability of ELISA in predicting serological protection in this age group. However, PRNT may be the only accurate estimator of serological protection in young infants

Comparison of microarray-predicted closest genomes to sequencing for poliovirus vaccine strain similarity and influenza A phylogeny

AbstractWe evaluate sequence data from the PathChip high-density hybridization array for epidemiological interpretation of detected pathogens. For influenza A, we derive similar relative outbreak clustering in phylogenetic trees from PathChip-derived compared to classical Sanger-derived sequences. For a positive polio detection, recent infection could be excluded based on vaccine strain similarity

Single-Dose Nirsevimab for Prevention of RSV in Preterm Infants

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Efficacy, duration of protection, birth outcomes, and infant growth associated with influenza vaccination in pregnancy: a pooled analysis of three randomised controlled trials

© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Background: Maternal influenza immunisation can reduce morbidity and mortality associated with influenza infection in pregnant women and young infants. We aimed to determine the vaccine efficacy of maternal influenza immunisation against maternal and infant PCR-confirmed influenza, duration of protection, and the effect of gestational age at vaccination on vaccine efficacy, birth outcomes, and infant growth up to 6 months of age. Methods: We did a pooled analysis of three randomised controlled trials done in Nepal (2011–2014), Mali (2011–2014), and South Africa (2011–2013). Pregnant women, gestational age 17–34 weeks in Nepal, 28 weeks or more in Mali, and 20–36 weeks in South Africa, were enrolled. Women were randomly assigned 1:1 to a study group, in which they received trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in all three trials, or a control group, in which they received saline placebo in Nepal and South Africa or quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine in Mali. Enrolment at all sites was complete by April 24, 2013. Infants and women were assessed for respiratory illness, and samples from those that met the case definition were tested for influenza by PCR testing. Growth measurements, including length and weight, were obtained at birth at all sites, at 24 weeks in South Africa, and at 6 months in Nepal and Mali. The three trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT01430689, NCT01034254, and NCT02465190. Findings: 10 002 women and 9800 liveborn infants were included. Pooled efficacy of maternal vaccination to prevent infant PCR-confirmed influenza up to 6 months of age was 35% (95% CI 19 to 47). The pooled estimate was 56% (28 to 73) within the first 2 months of life, 39% (11 to 58) between 2 and 4 months, and 19% (–9 to 40) between 4 and 6 months. In women, from enrolment during pregnancy to the end of follow-up at 6 months postpartum, the vaccine was 50% (95% CI 32–63) efficacious against PCR-confirmed influenza. Efficacy was 42% (12 to 61) during pregnancy and 60% (36 to 75) postpartum. In women vaccinated before 29 weeks gestational age, the estimated efficacy was 30% (–2 to 52), and in women vaccinated at or after 29 weeks, efficacy was 71% (50 to 83). Efficacy was similar in infants born to mothers vaccinated before or after 29 weeks gestation (34% [95% CI 12 to 51] vs 35% [11 to 52]). There was no overall association between maternal vaccination and low birthweight, stillbirth, preterm birth, and small for gestational age. At 6 months of age, the intervention and control groups were similar in terms of underweight (weight-for-age), stunted (length-for-age), and wasted (weight-for-length). Median centile change from birth to 6 months of age was similar between the intervention and the control groups for both weight and length. Interpretation: The assessment of efficacy for women vaccinated before 29 weeks gestational age might have been underpowered, because the point estimate suggests that there might be efficacy despite wide CIs. Estimates of efficacy against PCR-confirmed influenza and safety in terms of adverse birth outcomes should be incorporated into any further consideration of maternal influenza immunisation recommendations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation