From Maggie to May:Forty Years of (De)Industrialisation Strategy

Upon becoming Prime Minister, Theresa May installed industrial strategy as one of the principal planks of her economic policy. May\u27s embrace of industrial strategy, with its tacit acceptance of a positive role for the state in steering and coordinating economic activity, initially appears to be a decisive break with an era dating back to Margaret Thatcher, in which government intervention was regarded as heresy. Whilst there are doubtless novel features, this article argues that continuity is the overriding theme of May\u27s industrial strategy. First, despite the reluctance to confess it, like every UK government over the past forty years, May is proposing to intervene selectively to ‘pick winners’. Moreover, the strategy envisages extending assistance to industries which have been in receipt of substantial government resources since the 1970s. Likewise, the backing anticipated for industries identified in May\u27s strategy is dwarfed by that given to those which are not, most notably the financial services sector. Far from radically rebalancing the structure of the UK economy, May\u27s strategy seems destined to entrench the deindustrialisation with which its governments have grappled for almost a century

What we do in the shadows: dual industrial policy during the Thatcher governments, 1979–1990

Selective industrial policy in the United Kingdom is conventionally believed to have vanished prior to the global financial crisis. This article, in contrast, argues that industrial policy remained an intrinsic, if seldom acknowledged, element of neoliberal statecraft. The basis of this is a subterfuge, conceptualised here as a ‘dual industrial policy’, which we explore via an empirical focus on the Thatcher governments. Throughout this time, actions explicitly endorsed by governments as industrial policy generally corresponded with neoliberalism’s hostility to intervention. These conveniently distracted attention from a second set of policies which, although never codified by government as industrial policy, were intended to affect the allocation of resources between economic activity. Analysis of official government publications and expenditure reveals that industrial policy expenditure under Thatcher was far higher than customarily reported. The United Kingdom’s approach has important implications for debates about neoliberal resilience, especially neoliberalism’s capacity to conscript apparently contradictory ideas

What We Do in the Shadows:dual industrial policy during the Thatcher governments, 1979–1990

Selective industrial policy in the United Kingdom is conventionally believed to have vanished prior to the global financial crisis. This article, in contrast, argues that industrial policy remained an intrinsic, if seldom acknowledged, element of neoliberal statecraft. The basis of this is a subterfuge, conceptualised here as a ‘dual industrial policy’, which we explore via an empirical focus on the Thatcher governments. Throughout this time, actions explicitly endorsed by governments as industrial policy generally corresponded with neoliberalism’s hostility to intervention. These conveniently distracted attention from a second set of policies which, although never codified by government as industrial policy, were intended to affect the allocation of resources between economic activity. Analysis of official government publications and expenditure reveals that industrial policy expenditure under Thatcher was far higher than customarily reported. The United Kingdom’s approach has important implications for debates about neoliberal resilience, especially neoliberalism’s capacity to conscript apparently contradictory ideas

Causal Methods at LSHTM

PATHWAYS and other causal wor

Développement d'un film antibactérien ayant des propriétés de glissement pour une meilleure processabilité

La sécurité du produit est d’une importance cruciale pour l’industrie alimentaire. Le défi que constitue la salubrité des aliments est mis en évidence par le nombre d’intoxications alimentaires au Canada et à travers le monde. Une éclosion de Listériose en 2008, ayant mit la sécurité des Canadiens en péril, aura motivé la révision de la stratégie visant la sécurité des aliments au Canada. Dans ce contexte, une collaboration entre deux acteurs industriels québécois important et l’École Polytechnique de Montréal a été initiée. Cette collaboration s’est concrétisée par la création de La chaire de recherche pour des aliments sécuritaires, intelligents et durables. Un des nombreux projets d’avant-garde de cette Chaire de recherche est le développement d’un emballage ayant un effet bactéricide. Un grand nombre de composés sont actuellement sur le marché pour l’incorporation dans un produit fini. Zinc Omadine™ par ArchChemicals et Irgaguard™ par BASF sont quelques examples de produits qui ont faits leurs preuves. Toutefois, l’incorporation d’un agent bactéricide dans un produit ayant un contact direct avec des aliments doit répondre à certains critères de sécurité. Ainsi, un survol des divers agents antibactériens est effectué en regard de leur efficacité et de leur potentiel à être utilisé dans un produit d’emballage alimentaire. À ce jour, aucune technologie ne permet l’incorporation facile d’un agent antibactérien à une matrice polymérique. Le mélange des constituants antibactériens avec le polymère à l’état fondu procurera la simplicité poursuivie. Nous avons choisi l’oxyde de zinc nanométrique comme principal agent antibactérien en raison de son mode d’action, son grand potentiel de durabilité et son aptitude à ne pas migrer hors de la matrice de polymère en polyéthylène. De plus, son effet d’oligo-élément à très faible concentration est validé. Afin d’en augmenter l’efficacité, une bonne dispersion est atteinte en ajoutant un polyéthylène ayant des groupements d’anhydride maléique greffés. L’augmentation des propriétés antibactériennes par cette modification a été prouvée. Bien que ces films présentent un effet bactéricide marqué, un manque de persistance de l’effet antibactérien a été remarqué. Ceci est probablement du à un réarrangement de la structure moléculaire en surface. Ce réarrangement, dû à la nature polaire des particules, inhibe l’effet antibactérien des particules, ce qui les fait migrer à une distance critique, hors de leur champ d’action. Par ailleurs, nous avons evalué sommairement quelques autres agents antibactériens. L’oxyde de calcium (CaO) a démontré, bien qu’inférieur au ZnO, un potentiel antibactérien intéressant. La spécificité de son effet bactéricide pour les bactéries gram positives explique cet écart. L’ajout d’oxyde de fer (Fe2O3) n’a pas permis, par ses propriétés hydrophiles, d’augmenter les propriétés bactéricides du CaO, simplement en les mélangeant. Également, l’utilisation du thymol (composante d’huile essentielle du thym) s’est avérée efficace, même à de très faibles doses. Une interrogation plane, toutefois, sur la durabilité d’un tel agent. Son utilisation en conjonction avec un agent de compatibilité pourrait rendre l’effet v bactéricide nettement plus persistant, en ralentissant le processus de migration vers la surface du film. Cet effet bactéricide est diminué lorsque le thymol est mélangé avec du ZnO à la matrice de polyéthylène. Finalement, un outil visant l’optimisation des additifs de glissement a été développé. Pour ce faire, une corrélation qui lie l’absorbance en spectrométrie infrarouge (par réflexion ATR) à la concentration en surface de l’agent de glissement fut développée. En se servant de cette corrélation, aussi dénommé courbe maîtresse, et d’un test au spectromètre infrarouge sur un film inconnu, il est possible de retrouver la concentration d’additif de glissement initiale. Ces travaux mettent en évidence le potentiel de l’utilisation de l’oxyde de zinc et du thymol comme agent bactéricide efficient pour l’industrie alimentaire. Ces travaux constituent le premier effort à l’élaboration d’un film antibactérien, impliquant les oxydes métalliques nanométriques et une matrice polymérique de polyoléfine. -------- Product safety is of crucial importance for the food industry. The challenge of food safety is evidenced by the number of food poisoning in Canada and worldwide. An outbreak of listeriosis in 2008, having put the safety of Canadians at risk, has motivated the revision of the strategy for food safety in Canada. In this context, a collaboration between two major industrial players in Quebec and École Polytechnique de Montréal was initiated. This collaboration is supported by the creation of the Research Chair for safe, smart and sustainable food. One of the many forefront projects of this research chair is to develop a package having a bactericidal effect. Many compounds are currently available for incorporation into a finished product. Zinc Omadine™ by ArchChemicals and Irgaguard ™ by BASF are some examples of products that have proven themselves. However, the incorporation of a bactericidal agent in a product having a direct contact with food must meet certain safety criteria. Thus, an overview of various antibacterial agents is made in terms of their effectiveness and their potential use in packaging a food product. To date, no technology allows easy incorporation of an antibacterial agent in a polymer matrix. Antibacterial constituents of the mixture with the polymer melt will provide the simplicity pursued. We chose nano zinc oxide as the main antibacterial agent for its mode of action, its great potential for sustainability and its ability not to migrate out of the polyethylene polymer matrix. Moreover, the effect of trace element at very low concentrations is validated. To increase efficiency, good dispersion is achieved by adding a polyethylene with maleic anhydride grafted groups. The increase in antibacterial properties by this change has been proven. Although these films exhibit a marked bactericidal effect, a lack of persistence of the antibacterial effect was noticed. This is probably due to a rearrangement of the molecular structure on the surface. This rearrangement, due to the polar nature of particles, inhibits the antibacterial effect of the particles, causing them to migrate to a critical distance, outside their scope. Furthermore, we evaluated briefly some other antibacterial agents. Calcium oxide (CaO) demonstrated, although lower than ZnO, an interesting antibacterial potential. The specificity of the bactericidal for gram-positive bacteria for this variance. The addition of iron oxide (Fe2O3) did not, by its hydrophilic properties, increase the bactericidal properties of CaO, simply by mixing them. Also, the use of thymol (component of essential oil of thyme) was effective, even at very low doses. A question mark hangs, however, the sustainability of such an agent. Its use in conjunction with a compatibilizer could result in a much more persistent bactericidal effect, slowing the process of migrating to the film surface. This effect is reduced when the bactericidal thymol is mixed with ZnO in the polyethylene matrix. vii Finally, a tool for optimizing slip additives was developed. To do this, a correlation that links the absorbance in infrared spectroscopy (ATR reflection) to the surface concentration of the lubricant was developed. By using this correlation, also called master curve, and an infrared spectrometer to test an unknown film, it is possible to find the initial concentration of slip additive. These studies highlight the potential use of zinc oxide and thymol as efficient bactericidal agent for the food industry. This work represents the first effort to develop an antibacterial film, involving nanoscale metal oxides and a polymer matrix of polyolefin

Associations of acute conflict with equity in maternal healthcare: an uncontrolled before-and-after analysis of Egypt demographic and health survey data.

BACKGROUND: Equity of usage of maternal services during conflict is considered key to reducing maternal health risks globally. However, evidence showing how conflict affects maternal care use among different population groups is minimal. This study examined how the Egyptian acute conflict of 2011-2012 affected maternal care use among different socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic groups. METHODS: An 'uncontrolled before-and-after' study design was used to perform multi-level modelling regression analysis on 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey data. The pre-conflict sample included 2569 births occurring from January 2009 to January 2011 and the peri-conflict sample included 4641 births from February 2011 to December 2012. RESULTS: Interaction analysis indicated that the effect of conflict on some aspects of maternal care differed by mother's age, residential status, employment, education level and household wealth. In the stratum-specific analysis, increased odds of skilled delivery during conflict was relatively greater among women who were rural (odds ratio [OR] 1.02; 95%CI 1.02-1.03), educated to primary level (OR 1.04; 95%CI 1.01-1.07), employed (OR 1.04; 95%CI 1.01-1.07), less poor (OR 1.03; 95%CI 1.02-1.05) or middle-income (OR 1.02; 95%CI 1.01-1.04), than pre-conflict. Similarly, increased odds of physician-assisted delivery during conflict was relatively greater for women who were rural (OR 1.03; 95%CI 1.02-1.04), educated to primary level (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.10), employed (OR 1.07; 95%CI 1.02-1.11), or from less poor/middle-income (OR 1.03; 95%CI 1.01-1.05 each), and richest quintiles (OR 1.02; 95%CI 1.00-1.03). Decreased odds of postnatal care during conflict was relatively greater among women aged 25-29 (OR 0.92; 95%CI 0.88-0.96) compared to older women. CONCLUSIONS: The association between acute conflict and maternal services usage indicated some vertical equity, as equity patterns during conflict differed from recent trends in Egypt. The association between conflict and maternal care usage among potentially marginalised groups was minimal and not notably inequitable. Specific strategies should be included in maternal health policies to mitigate the unpredictable effect of conflict on maternal care equity. Further research is needed to determine how conflict affects out-of-pocket expenditures and quality-of-care among different socioeconomic groups

Issues in modelling growth data within a life course framework

This thesis explores, develops and implements modelling strategies for studying relationships between childhood growth and later health, focusing primarily on the relationship between the development of body mass index (BMI) in childhood and later obesity. Existing growth models are explored, though found to be inflexible and potentially inadequate. Alternative approaches using parametric and nonparametric modelling are investigated. A distinction between balanced and unbalanced data structure is made because of the ways in which missing data can be addressed. A dataset of each type is used for illustration: the Stockholm Weight Development Study (SWEDES) and the Uppsala Family Study (UFS). The focus in each application is obesity, with the first examining how the adiposity rebound (AR), and the second how the adiposity peak (AP) in infancy, relate to later adiposity. In each case a two-stage approach is used. Subject-specific cubic smoothing splines are used in SWEDES to model childhood BMI and estimate the AR for each subject. As childhood BMI data are balanced, missingness can be dealt with via mUltiple imputation. The relationship between the AR and late-adolescent adiposity is then explored via linear and logistic regression, with both the age and BMI at AR found to be strongly and independently associated with late-adolescent adiposity. In the UFS, where childhood BMI data are unbalanced, penalised regression splines are used within a mixed model framework to model childhood BMI and estimate the AP for each subject. The data correlations induced by the family structure of the observations are addressed by fitting multilevel models in the second stage. Both age and BMI at AP are found to be positively associated with later adiposity. The two nonparametric modelling approaches are found to be effective and flexible. Whilst the thesis concentrates on BMI development in childhood and later adiposity, the techniques employed, both in terms the modelling of growth and the relating of the derived features to the outcomes, are far more widely applicable.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Emulating Target Trials With Real-World Data to Inform Health Technology Assessment: Findings and Lessons From an Application to Emergency Surgery

Objectives: International health technology assessment (HTA) agencies recommend that real-world data (RWD) are used in some circumstances to add to the evidence base about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of health interventions. The target trial framework applies the design principles of randomized-controlled trials to RWD and can help alleviate inevitable concerns about bias and design flaws with nonrandomized studies. This article aimed to tackle the lack of guidance and exemplar applications on how this methodology can be applied to RWD to inform HTA decision making./ Methods: We use Hospital Episode Statistics data from England on emergency hospital admissions from 2010 to 2019 to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery for 2 acute gastrointestinal conditions. We draw on the case study to describe the main challenges in applying the target trial framework alongside RWD and provide recommendations for how these can be addressed in practice./ Results: The 4 main challenges when applying the target trial framework to RWD are (1) defining the study population, (2) defining the treatment strategies, (3) establishing time zero (baseline), and (4) adjusting for unmeasured confounding. The recommendations for how to address these challenges, mainly around the incorporation of expert judgment and use of appropriate methods for handling unmeasured confounding, are illustrated within the case study./ Conclusions: The recommendations outlined in this study could help future studies seeking to inform HTA decision processes. These recommendations can complement checklists for economic evaluations and design tools for estimating treatment effectiveness in nonrandomized studies