Forecasting Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika cases in Recife, Brazil: a spatio-temporal approach based on climate conditions, health notifications and machine learning

Dengue has become a challenge for many countries. Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti spread rapidly over the last decades. The emergence chikungunya fever and zika in South America poses new challenges to vector monitoring and control. This situation got worse from 2015 and 2016, with the rapid spread of chikungunya, causing fever and muscle weakness, and Zika virus, related to cases of microcephaly in newborns and the occurrence of Guillain-Barret syndrome, an autoimmune disease that affects the nervous system. The objective of this work was to construct a tool to forecast the distribution of arboviruses transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti by implementing dengue, zika and chikungunya transmission predictors based on machine learning, focused on multilayer perceptrons neural networks, support vector machines and linear regression models. As a case study, we investigated forecasting models to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of cases from primary health notification data and climate variables (wind velocity, temperature and pluviometry) from Recife, Brazil, from 2013 to 2016, including 2015’s outbreak. The use of spatio-temporal analysis over multilayer perceptrons and support vector machines results proved to be very effective in predicting the distribution of arbovirus cases. The models indicate that the southern and western regions of Recife were very susceptible to outbreaks in the period under investigation. The proposed approach could be useful to support health managers and epidemiologists to prevent outbreaks of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and promote public policies for health promotion and sanitation

Loss of 5'-Methylthioadenosine Phosphorylase (MTAP) is Frequent in High-Grade Gliomas; Nevertheless, it is Not Associated with Higher Tumor Aggressiveness.

The 5'-methylthioadenosine phosphorylase (MTAP) gene is located in the chromosomal region 9p21. MTAP deletion is a frequent event in a wide variety of human cancers; however, its biological role in tumorigenesis remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to characterize the MTAP expression profile in a series of gliomas and to associate it with patients' clinicopathological features. Moreover, we sought to evaluate, through glioma gene-edited cell lines, the biological impact of MTAP in gliomas. MTAP expression was evaluated in 507 glioma patients by immunohistochemistry (IHC), and the expression levels were associated with patients' clinicopathological features. Furthermore, an in silico study was undertaken using genomic databases totalizing 350 samples. In glioma cell lines, MTAP was edited, and following MTAP overexpression and knockout (KO), a transcriptome analysis was performed by NanoString Pan-Cancer Pathways panel. Moreover, MTAP's role in glioma cell proliferation, migration, and invasion was evaluated. Homozygous deletion of 9p21 locus was associated with a reduction of MTAP mRNA expression in the TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) - glioblastoma dataset (p < 0.01). In addition, the loss of MTAP expression was markedly high in high-grade gliomas (46.6% of cases) determined by IHC and Western blotting (40% of evaluated cell lines). Reduced MTAP expression was associated with a better prognostic in the adult glioblastoma dataset (p < 0.001). Nine genes associated with five pathways were differentially expressed in MTAP-knockout (KO) cells, with six upregulated and three downregulated in MTAP. Analysis of cell proliferation, migration, and invasion did not show any significant differences between MTAP gene-edited and control cells. Our results integrating data from patients as well as in silico and in vitro models provide evidence towards the lack of strong biological importance of MTAP in gliomas. Despite the frequent loss of MTAP, it seems not to have a clinical impact in survival and does not act as a canonic tumor suppressor gene in gliomas

Global Survey of Outcomes of Neurocritical Care Patients: Analysis of the PRINCE Study Part 2

BACKGROUND: Neurocritical care is devoted to the care of critically ill patients with acute neurological or neurosurgical emergencies. There is limited information regarding epidemiological data, disease characteristics, variability of clinical care, and in-hospital mortality of neurocritically ill patients worldwide. We addressed these issues in the Point PRevalence In Neurocritical CarE (PRINCE) study, a prospective, cross-sectional, observational study. METHODS: We recruited patients from various intensive care units (ICUs) admitted on a pre-specified date, and the investigators recorded specific clinical care activities they performed on the subjects during their first 7 days of admission or discharge (whichever came first) from their ICUs and at hospital discharge. In this manuscript, we analyzed the final data set of the study that included patient admission characteristics, disease type and severity, ICU resources, ICU and hospital length of stay, and in-hospital mortality. We present descriptive statistics to summarize data from the case report form. We tested differences between geographically grouped data using parametric and nonparametric testing as appropriate. We used a multivariable logistic regression model to evaluate factors associated with in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 1545 patients admitted to 147 participating sites from 31 countries of which most were from North America (69%, N = 1063). Globally, there was variability in patient characteristics, admission diagnosis, ICU treatment team and resource allocation, and in-hospital mortality. Seventy-three percent of the participating centers were academic, and the most common admitting diagnosis was subarachnoid hemorrhage (13%). The majority of patients were male (59%), a half of whom had at least two comorbidities, and median Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 13. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality included age (OR 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.04); lower GCS (OR 1.20; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.16 for every point reduction in GCS); pupillary reactivity (OR 1.8; 95% CI, 1.09 to 3.23 for bilateral unreactive pupils); admission source (emergency room versus direct admission [OR 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.75]; admission from a general ward versus direct admission [OR 5.85; 95% CI, 2.75 to 12.45; and admission from another ICU versus direct admission [OR 3.34; 95% CI, 1.27 to 8.8]); and the absence of a dedicated neurocritical care unit (NCCU) (OR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.47). CONCLUSION: PRINCE is the first study to evaluate care patterns of neurocritical patients worldwide. The data suggest that there is a wide variability in clinical care resources and patient characteristics. Neurological severity of illness and the absence of a dedicated NCCU are independent predictors of in-patient mortality.status: publishe