Production strategy influence on the economic viability of a family fish farm in Pará state, Amazon, Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze the influence of the adoption of single-phase and two-phase system on the economic feasibility of tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) family production in the Tracuateua municipality, Pará state. The operational cost methodology and economic efficiency indicators were adopted to compare these rearing systems. The annual production was 4,200 kg and 5,826 kg. The operational costs were R$26,169.00 and R$ 34,365.00, the total operational cost was R$27,505 and R$ 35,701.00, and the total operational cost per kg was R$6.55 and R$ 6.13 for single-phase and two-phase systems, respectively. Regarding the indicators, the net present value was R$24,180.70, the internal rate of return was 24$ 48,582.06, the internal rate of return was 29%, the cost-benefit ratio was 1.25, and the capital return period was 3.6 years. Despite the demand for greater investment, the two-phase system proved to be more profitable than the single-phase system, promoting even a reduction in unit production cost

Application of the Monte Carlo Method in the Economic Analysis of a Family Fish Farming in the State of Pará, Amazon, Brazil

O objetivo deste estudo foi aplicar o Método de Monte Carlo (MMC) na análise econômica de uma piscicultura familiar no estado do Pará. Utilizou-se a metodologia do custo operacional e indicadores de eficiência econômica para avaliação de uma criação de tambaqui Colossoma macropomum em viveiros escavados com total de 7.200 m2 de lâmina d’água. Posteriormente, uma análise de risco utilizando o MMC foi efetuada através do software @RISK, a fim de atestar a capacidade de pagamento do empreendedor no caso da obtenção de crédito rural por meio do Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento da Agricultura Familiar. O Investimento Total foi estimado em R$94.119,00, o Custo Operacional Total por kg em R$ 6,04, o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) em R$97.022,32, a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR) em 33$ 1,27 e o Período de Retorno do Capital (PRC) em 3,4 anos. Na análise de risco, as probabilidades de obtenção dos valores previstos no projeto para o VPL, a TIR, a RBC e o PRC foram 42%, 51,2%, 52,5% e 74,2%, respectivamente. Concluiu-se que o empreendimento é rentável e a aplicação do MMC na análise econômica pode auxiliar determinantemente nas tomadas de decisão do investidor