EX ANTE NON-MARKET VALUATION FOR NOVEL PRODUCT: LITERATURE REVIEW

This paper provides a critical review of the literature on non-market valuation methods to estimate the welfare impact of novel products; it is the first study to assess both observed data- and perception-based methods as non-market valuation methods. Observed databased methods include budgets, regression, mathematical programming, and simulation. Perceptions-based methods include the contingent valuation method, choice-based conjoint analysis and experimental methods. Findings imply that the preferred observed data-based method to estimate the ex ante economic impact of a new technology on the welfare of the farm household is a combination of simulation and mathematical programming. The preferred perceptionbased method for estimating the ex ante impact of a novel product on the welfare of an economic agent is represented by experimental methods. Findings also imply that observed-data based methods and more specifically mathematical programming are more popular for estimating the ex ante farm-level economic impact of a new technology. On the other hand, perception-based methods are more popular for estimating the economic impact of a novel product for consumers.Staff working papers, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Internet publications, Purdue University

Women in Agriculture: Accelerating Impact of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa

The objective of this workshop was to deep dive into a collaborative approach to identifying potential solutions, consider the role of key ecosystem stakeholders including the banks, policy makers and IITA/AICCRA and prioritise wish list items for potential action. The conclusions reached provide a framing and context for next steps of stakeholder engagement in the third and final workshop for this phase of work

Ex Ante Economic Impact of Genetically Modified (GM) Cowpea in Benin

The net impact of pest-resistant GM crops on the welfare of both producers and consumers in developing countries is currently unknown and subject to speculation. This study uses choice-based conjoint protocol to estimate the net impact of pest-resistant Genetically Modified (GM) cowpea on net social welfare in Benin given price and income risks. Results imply that Bt cowpea will increase expected net social welfare by about $US 50 million per year in Benin given no inefficiencies in the seed sector. If inefficiencies in the seed sector are such that cowpea growers can access Bt cowpea seeds only 50$US 11 million per year.Crop Production/Industries,

Food Prices: Eastern and Southern Africa Defy Global Trends

Global food prices started rising sharply in 2006 and reached record levels in the second quarter of 2008. Although domestic food prices in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) are not totally unrelated to world prices, a study by the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in East and Central Africa (ASARECA), the Regional Strategic and Knowledge Support System for Eastern and Central Africa (ReSAKSS-ECA), and the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Alliance shows that national and regional factors are very important in driving domestic food prices. While global food prices have exhibited declining trends since June 2008, several ESA countries have experienced increasing prices in 2008 and early 2009. The price surges appear to be further fuelled by some of the policy responses that countries have employed in their attempts to address the food price problem. This brief provides an update on food price trends in ESA. It starts by comparing the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) global food price index and food price indexes (FPI) in individual countries followed by an update on price trends for specifi c commodities. This information serves to remind policymakers that the easing global food prices do not present any immediate relief to the food crises facing their individual countries

A Quantitative Assessment of the COMESA Customs Union

This study provides a quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of the formation of a COMESA customs union, specifically of having free trade among COMESA countries while imposing a common external tariff against imports from outside COMESA. The study uses an expanded version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and capitalizes on the Modeling International Relationships in Applied General Equilibrium (MIRAGE) Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for analysis. Two different assumptions are made regarding the number of sensitive products excluded from the CET rates—2 percent or 5 percent. The simulation exercise involved four scenarios to compare the impacts of the customs union under two alternative specifications of sensitive products, and the impacts of three alternative membership assumptions on the COMESA region. The alternative COMESA customs union scenarios are designed at the detailed Harmonized System at the six digit level (HS6), combining information on the current applied protection from the 2004 MAcMap data base and the COMESA Tariff Nomenclature

Common interest

SummaryOne of the West's frontline bases during the Cold War has been turned into an innovative conservation project. Nigel Williams reports

Strategic Foresight analysis of droughts in southern Africa and implications for food security

Southern Africa has been experiencing long-term changes in its climate and future projections imply that droughts should last longer and become more intense in southern Africa. Already, the region has been experiencing an increase in consecutive drought years. This study contributes to the literature by using bio-economic modeling to simulate the impact of future droughts on food security in southern Africa and identify plausible pathways for enhancing regional food security under drought. Food production and food security in southern Africa were projected under drought using an adjusted version of a multi-market and multi-commodity global model, the International Model for the Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), version 3.2. The results suggest that with moderate economic growth and no drought, southern Africa would not become wealthy enough to mitigate food insecurity by 2040. In this context, recurrent droughts would worsen food security by severely affecting the production of maize, the key staple food in the region. With consecutive two-year regional droughts, like what was experienced in 2014/15 and 2015/16, most countries would experience an increase of at least 10% in the number of people at risk of hunger within a single year. Key measures which could help enhance food security under droughts include (1) breeding for stress-resilient maize (resistance to both heat and drought stresses); (2) promote crop and diet diversification, especially in countries highly dependent on maize as a staple food crop; and (3) invest in rainwater harvesting

The impact of non-tariff barriers on maize and beef trade in East Africa

On March 2, 2004, the East African Community (EAC) member states signed the protocol for the establishment of the East African Community Customs Union, which commits them, among others, to eliminate non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to increase intraregional trade. However, several NTBs are still applied by member states, raising concerns among policy makers and the business community. There is, however, no information about the magnitude of the impact of these NTBs. This study identifies the existing NTBs on maize and beef trade in East Africa and quantifies their impact on trade and the welfare of EAC citizens using a Spatial Equilibrium Model (SEM). Data on NTBs were collected from traders and transporters of maize and beef cattle in East Africa. In addition, the study found that the main types of NTBs within the three founding members of the EAC (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) are similar. They include administrative requirements (mainly licenses, municipal and council permits), taxes/duties (mainly excise and cess duty), roadblocks, customs barriers, weighbridges, licensing, corruption (e.g., through bribes) and transiting. The results of the welfare analysis vary across the three countries, but the net monetary gains are positive in all cases. A complete abolishment or a reduction of the existing NTBs in maize and beef trade increases intra-EAC maize and beef trade flows, with Kenya importing more maize from both Uganda and Tanzania, while Uganda’s beef exports to Kenya and Tanzania increase. As a result, positive net welfare gains are attained for the entire EAC maize and beef sub-sectors. In all cases, those who gain from the proposed reductions in NTBs can potentially compensate the losers, leading to potential improvements in welfare. These findings give compelling evidence in support of the elimination of NTBs within the EAC customs union. The study recommends taking a regional approach to eliminating the existing NTBs since they are similar across the member countries and across commodities so as to exploit economies of scale. Other policy recommendations include streamlining of administrative procedures at border points to improve efficiency, and speeding up the implementation of procedures at point of origin and at the border points. Finally, the study recommends the need to design and implement monitoring systems to provide feedback to the relevant authorities on the implementation of measures to remove unnecessary barriers to trade within the EAC region