Interdecadal variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China

Interdecadal variability of observed winter precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is characterized by the first empirical orthogonal function of the three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) subjected to a 9-year running mean. For interdecadal time scales the dominating spatial modes represent monopole features involving the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Dynamic composite analysis (based on NCEP/NCAR reanalyzes) reveals the following results: (1) Interdecadal SPI-variations show a trend from a dryer state in the 1970s via an increase during the 1980s towards stabilization on wetter conditions commencing with the 1990s. (2) Increasing wetness in Southeast China is attributed to an abnormal anticyclone over south Japan, with northward transport of warm and humid air from the tropical Pacific to South China. (3) In mid-to-high latitudes the weakened southward flow of polar airmasses induces low-level warming over Eurasia due to stronger AO by warmer zonal temperature advection. This indicates that AO is attributed to the Southeast China precipitation increase influenced by circulation anomalies over the mid-to-high latitudes. (4) The abnormal moisture transport along the southwestern boundary of the abnormal anticyclone over south Japan is related to anomalous south-easterlies modulated by the SST anomalies over Western Pacific Ocean; a positive (negative) SST anomaly will strengthen (weaken) warm and humid air transport, leading to abundant (reduced) precipitation in Southeast China. That is both AO and SST anomalies determine the nonlinear trend observed in winter precipitation over Southeast China

An equation of state for land surface climates

A biased coinflip Ansatz provides a stochastic regional scale surface climate model of minimum complexity, which represents physical and stochastic properties of the rainfall-runoff chain. The solution yields the Schreiber-Budyko relation as an equation of state describing land surface vegetation, river runoff and lake areas in terms of physical flux ratios, which are associated with three thresholds. Validation of consistency and predictability within a Global Climate Model (GCM) environment demonstrates the stochastic rainfall-runoff chain to be a viable surrogate model for regional climate state averages and variabilites. A terminal (closed) lake area ratio is introduced as a new climate state parameter, which quantifies lake overflow as a threshold in separating water from energy limited climate regimes. A climate change analysis based on the IPCC A1B scenario is included for completeness

Atmospheric response to Indian Ocean dipole forcing: changes of Southeast China winter precipitation under global warming

To investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the subsequent winter precipitation in Southeast China (SEC), observed fields of monthly precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation are subjected to a running and a maximum correlation analysis. The results show a significant change of the relevance of IOD for the early modulation of SEC winter precipitation in the 1980s. After 1980, positive correlations suggest prolonged atmospheric responses to IOD forcing, which are linked to an abnormal moisture supply initiated in autumn and extended into the subsequent winter. Under global warming two modulating factors are relevant: (1) an increase of the static stability has been observed suppressing vertical heat and momentum transports; (2) a positive (mid-level) cloud-radiation feedback jointly with the associated latent heating (apparent moisture sink Q2) explains the prolongation of positive as well as negative SST anomalies by conserving the heating (apparent heat source Q1) in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. During the positive IOD events in fall (after 1980) the dipole heating anomalies in the middle and lower troposphere over the tropical Indian Ocean are prolonged to winter by a positive mid-level cloud-radiative feedback with latent heat release. Subsequently, thermal adaptation leads to an anticyclonic anomaly over Eastern India overlying the anomalous cooling SST of the tropical Eastern Indian Ocean enhancing the moisture flow from the tropical Indian Ocean through the Bay of Bengal into South China, following the northwestern boundary of the anticyclonic circulation anomaly over east India, thereby favoring abundant precipitation in SEC. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelber