Why Do Dancers Smoke? Smoking, Time Preference, and Wage Dynamics

Time preference is a key determinant of investments in human capital and occupational choice. Individuals with higher discount rates are less likely to invest in human capital and hence more likely to select into careers with lower and flatter earnings profiles. Since discount rates are unobservable, we use smoking behavior as a proxy to study the effect of discounting on wage dynamics. We find that smokers, compared to non-smokers, earn lower wages at the time they enter the labor market and experience substantially lower rates of wage growth. These differences are consistent with the discounting hypothesis, and highly robust to an extensive array of control variables.

Wage Dynamics and Unobserved Heterogeneity : Time Preference or Learning Ability?

A large fraction of the variation in wage levels and wage growth rates among individuals remains unexplained. Economists argue that ?unobserved? heterogeneity is among the more likely reasons for this unexplained variation in wages. The source of individual heterogeneity is typically attributed to data limitations and the unobservability of certain productivity related factors. In this paper we present a theory of career choice and derive a discriminating test between two inherently unobservable sources of heterogeneity – learning ability and workers? inter-temporal preferences (discounting) – both of which can clearly account for the variation in wage levels and wage growth rates. We apply this test to the large observed differences in wages and wage growth rates between smokers and non-smokers. The empirical evidence suggests that smoking is a proxy for individual discount rates

Outsourcing and Technological Change

In this paper we argue that an important source of the recent increase in outsourcing is the computer and information technology revolution, characterized by increased rates of technological change. Our model shows that an increase in the pace of technological change increases outsourcing because it allows firms to use services based on leading edge technologies without incurring the sunk costs of adopting these new technologies. In addition, firms using more IT-intensive technologies face lower outsourcing costs of IT-based services generating a positive correlation between the IT level of the user and its outsourcing share of IT-based services. This implication is verified in the data.

Outsourcing and Technological Change

We present a dynamic model where the probability of outsourcing production is increasing in the firm’s expectation of technological change. As the pace of innovations in production technologies increases, the less time the firm has to amortize the sunk costs associated with purchasing and adopting new technologies to produce in-house. Therefore, purchasing from market suppliers, who can afford to use the latest technology, becomes relatively cheaper. The predictions of the model are tested using a panel dataset on Spanish firms for the time period 1990 through 2002. In order to address potential endogeneity problems, we use an exogenous proxy for technological change, namely the number of patents granted by the U.S. patent office classified by technological class. We map the technological classes to the Spanish industrial sectors in which the patents are used and provide causal evidence of the impact of expected technological change on the likelihood and extent of production outsourcing. No prior study has been able to provide such causal evidence. Our results are robust to the inclusion of detailed characteristics of the firms as well as firm fixed effects.outsourcing, technological change

Outsourcing and Technological Innovations: A Firm-Level Analysis

This paper presents a dynamic model that analyzes how firms’ expectations with regards to technological change influence the demand for outsourcing. We show that outsourcing becomes more beneficial to the firm when technology is changing rapidly. As the pace of innovations in production technology increases, the firm has less time to amortize the sunk costs associated with purchasing the new technologies. This makes producing in-house with the latest technologies relatively more expensive than outsourcing. The model therefore provides an explanation for the recent increases in outsourcing that have taken place in an environment of increased expectations for technological change. We test the predictions of the model using a panel dataset on Spanish firms for the period 1990 through 2002. The empirical results support the main prediction of the model, namely, that all other things equal, the demand for outsourcing increases with the probability of technological change.technological change, outsourcing

Gender Differences in Departure from a Large Firm

Looking at the personnel records of workers in a large company, where detailed reasons for worker departure are recorded, I find striking differences in the exit patterns between men and women. As is well known, a higher proportion of women leave for a variety of non-market reasons. Further, women state more often that wages, and not opportunities, as a reason for switching jobs. Women, on average, are more likely to leave the firm. This is specially true in periods of early tenure. For both men and women, the likelihood of departure increases in the first two months of tenure, and then declines at a decreasing rate. This decline is stronger for women. Using a proportional hazard model, with controls for observed characteristics, I find that tenure beyond five years, women are less likely to leave the firm than men. Tenure turnover profiles are computed for the different reasons of departure. This detailed breakdown provides additional insights into gender differences in quit behavior.

The Dynamics of Dual-Job Holding and Job Mobility

This article concerns the incidence and dynamics of dual-job holding, and its link to job mobility. The first section presents evidence on patterns of dual-job holding, hours changes, and job mobility in the United States, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Current Population Survey. The results indicate that most workers experience dual-job holding sometime during their working lives, and there is a great deal of movement into and out of dual-job holding. Mobility into and out of second jobs is associated with large changes in weekly and annual hours, and there is evidence that dual-job holding is prompted by hours constraints on the main job. The second section of the article turns to theories of dual-job holding. Much of the empirical literature on second jobs is motivated by a simple model of labor supply in which workers face upper constraints on main-job hours: a worker who would like to work more on his main job, but cannot, will take a second job provided the second-job wage is high enough. These models do not account for the fact that workers may also avoid hours constraints by finding new main jobs with higher hours. We develop a stochastic dynamic model of dual-job holding and job mobility in which decisions to take second jobs and/or change main jobs are made simultaneously. This model is consistent with our findings and provides new insights into the economics of dual-job holding and labor mobility.

Outsourcing and technological change

We present a dynamic model where the probability of outsourcing production is increasing in the firm's expectation of technological change. As the pace of innovations in production technologies increases, the less time the firm has to amortize the sunk costs associated with purchasing and adopting new technologies to produce in-house. Therefore, purchasing from market suppliers, who can afford to use the latest technology, becomes relatively cheaper. The predictions of the model are tested using a panel dataset on Spanish firms for the time period 1990 through 2002. In order to address potential endogeneity problems, we use an exogenous proxy for technological change, namely the number of patents granted by the U.S. patent office classified by technological class. We map the technological classes to the Spanish industrial sectors in which the patents are used and provide causal evidence of the impact of expected technological change on the likelihood and extent of production outsourcing. No prior study has been able to provide such causal evidence. Our results are robust to the inclusion of detailed characteristics of the firms as well as firm fixed effects

Outsourcing and technological innovations: a firm-level analysis

This paper presents a dynamic model that analyzes how firms' expectations with regards to technological change influence the demand for outsourcing. We show that outsourcing becomes more beneficial to the firm when technology is changing rapidly. As the pace of innovations in production technology increases, the firm has less time to amortize the sunk costs associated with purchasing the new technologies. This makes producing in-house with the latest technologies relatively more expensive than outsourcing. The model therefore provides an explanation for the recent increases in outsourcing that have taken place in an environment of increased expectations for technological change. We test the predictions of the model using a panel dataset on Spanish firms for the period 1990 through 2002. The empirical results support the main prediction of the model, namely, that all other things equal, the demand for outsourcing increases with the probability of technological change