Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from EGU via the DOI in this recordThe published version, as published in The Cryosphere, is in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32433Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste and many have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the collapse of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and their regularity – rather unexpectedly – has declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.SH was funded by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship. SH, RAB and AW acknowledge funding under the HELIX (European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement n° 603864). AW and RAB acknowledge funding from the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Climate Change and the Global Pattern of Moraine-Dammed Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from EGU via the DOI in this recordThe published version, as published in The Cryosphere, is in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/32433Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste and many have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the collapse of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and their regularity – rather unexpectedly – has declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.SH was funded by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship. SH, RAB and AW acknowledge funding under the HELIX (European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement n° 603864). AW and RAB acknowledge funding from the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Advancing the understanding of treponemal disease in the past and present

Syphilis was perceived to be a new disease in Europe in the late 15th century, igniting a debate about its origin that continues today in anthropological, historical, and medical circles. We move beyond this age-old debate using an interdisciplinary approach that tackles broader questions to advance the understanding of treponemal infection (syphilis, yaws, bejel, and pinta). How did the causative organism(s) and humans co-evolve? How did the related diseases caused by Treponema pallidum emerge in different parts of the world and affect people across both time and space? How are T. pallidum subspecies related to the treponeme causing pinta? The current state of scholarship in specific areas is reviewed with recommendations made to stimulate future work. Understanding treponemal biology, genetic relationships, epidemiology, and clinical manifestations is crucial for vaccine development today and for investigating the distribution of infection in both modern and past populations. Paleopathologists must improve diagnostic criteria and use a standard approach for recording skeletal lesions on archaeological human remains. Adequate contextualization of cultural and environmental conditions is necessary, including site dating and justification for any corrections made for marine or freshwater reservoir effects. Biogeochemical analyses may assess aquatic contributions to diet, physiological changes arising from treponemal disease and its treatments (e.g., mercury), or residential mobility of those affected. Shifting the focus from point of origin to investigating who is affected (e.g., by age/sex or socioeconomic status) and disease distribution (e.g., coastal/ inland, rural/urban) will advance our understanding of the treponemal disease and its impact on people through time

Surface characterisation techniques in the study and conservation of art and archaeological artefacts: A review

The science of colour characterisation and measurement, i.e. colorimetry, had a notable growth in the last ten years in CH behaviour. Nowadays quite every museum or restoration lab, has his own colorimeter or portable spectrophotometer to measure colour objectively. This is mainly due to an increase of scientific analysis in the field of conservation and exhibition and also to the development of portable instruments at low prices. Unfortunately there is a lack in measurement methodologies, measurement uncertainty evaluation and set-up. Due to the wide range of application and materials to define the best color measurement system and methodology for all CH applications is not possible, but for every single application and wanted accuracy is possible to identify the best ones and what is better to avoid. In this paper we consider different applications based on different measurement methodologies and instrumentations