Sars-Cov-2 Serostatus and Covid-19 Illness Characteristics By Variant Time Period in Non-Hospitalized Children and adolescents

OBJECTIVE: to describe COVID-19 illness characteristics, risk factors, and SARS-CoV-2 serostatus by variant time period in a large community-based pediatric sample. DESIGN: Data were collected prospectively over four timepoints between October 2020 and November 2022 from a population-based cohort ages 5 to 19 years old. SETTING: State of Texas, USA. PARTICIPANTS: Participants ages 5 to 19 years were recruited from large pediatric healthcare systems, Federally Qualified Healthcare Centers, urban and rural clinical practices, health insurance providers, and a social media campaign. EXPOSURE: SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S): SARS-CoV-2 antibody status was assessed by the Roche Elecsys RESULTS: Over half (57.2%) of the sample (N = 3911) was antibody positive. Symptomatic infection increased over time from 47.09% during the pre-Delta variant time period, to 76.95% during Delta, to 84.73% during Omicron, and to 94.79% during the Omicron BA.2. Those who were not vaccinated were more likely (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.47, 2.00) to be infected versus those fully vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Results show an increase in symptomatic COVID-19 infection among non-hospitalized children with each progressive variant over the past two years. Findings here support the public health guidance that eligible children should remain up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations

Methodology to Estimate Natural- and Vaccine-induced antibodies to Sars-Cov-2 in a Large Geographic Region

Accurate estimates of natural and/or vaccine-induced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are difficult to obtain. Although model-based estimates of seroprevalence have been proposed, they require inputting unknown parameters including viral reproduction number, longevity of immune response, and other dynamic factors. In contrast to a model-based approach, the current study presents a data-driven detailed statistical procedure for estimating total seroprevalence (defined as antibodies from natural infection or from full vaccination) in a region using prospectively collected serological data and state-level vaccination data. Specifically, we conducted a longitudinal statewide serological survey with 88,605 participants 5 years or older with 3 prospective blood draws beginning September 30, 2020. Along with state vaccination data, as of October 31, 2021, the estimated percentage of those 5 years or older with naturally occurring antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas is 35.0% (95% CI = (33.1%, 36.9%)). This is 3× higher than, state-confirmed COVID-19 cases (11.83%) for all ages. The percentage with naturally occurring or vaccine-induced antibodies (total seroprevalence) is 77.42%. This methodology is integral to pandemic preparedness as accurate estimates of seroprevalence can inform policy-making decisions relevant to SARS-CoV-2

Antibody Duration after infection From Sars-Cov-2 in the Texas Coronavirus antibody Response Survey

Understanding the duration of antibodies to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus that causes COVID-19 is important to controlling the current pandemic. Participants from the Texas Coronavirus Antibody Response Survey (Texas CARES) with at least 1 nucleocapsid protein antibody test were selected for a longitudinal analysis of antibody duration. A linear mixed model was fit to data from participants (n = 4553) with 1 to 3 antibody tests over 11 months (1 October 2020 to 16 September 2021), and models fit showed that expected antibody response after COVID-19 infection robustly increases for 100 days postinfection, and predicts individuals may remain antibody positive from natural infection beyond 500 days depending on age, body mass index, smoking or vaping use, and disease severity (hospitalized or not; symptomatic or not)

Balancing Detection and Eradication for Control of Epidemics: Sudden Oak Death in Mixed-Species Stands

Culling of infected individuals is a widely used measure for the control of several plant and animal pathogens but culling first requires detection of often cryptically-infected hosts. In this paper, we address the problem of how to allocate resources between detection and culling when the budget for disease management is limited. The results are generic but we motivate the problem for the control of a botanical epidemic in a natural ecosystem: sudden oak death in mixed evergreen forests in coastal California, in which species composition is generally dominated by a spreader species (bay laurel) and a second host species (coast live oak) that is an epidemiological dead-end in that it does not transmit infection but which is frequently a target for preservation. Using a combination of an epidemiological model for two host species with a common pathogen together with optimal control theory we address the problem of how to balance the allocation of resources for detection and epidemic control in order to preserve both host species in the ecosystem. Contrary to simple expectations our results show that an intermediate level of detection is optimal. Low levels of detection, characteristic of low effort expended on searching and detection of diseased trees, and high detection levels, exemplified by the deployment of large amounts of resources to identify diseased trees, fail to bring the epidemic under control. Importantly, we show that a slight change in the balance between the resources allocated to detection and those allocated to control may lead to drastic inefficiencies in control strategies. The results hold when quarantine is introduced to reduce the ingress of infected material into the region of interest

Theoretical Analysis the Optical Properties of Multi-coupled Silver Nanoshell Particles

The surface plasmon resonances of silver nanoshell particles are studied by Green’s function. The nanoshell system of plasmon resonances results from the coupling of the inner and outer shell surface plasmon. The shift of the nanoshell plasmon resonances wavelength is plotted against with different dielectric environments, several different dielectric cores, the ratio of the inner and outer radius, and also its assemblies. The results show that a red- and blue-shifted localized surface plasmon can be tuned over an extended wavelength range by varying dielectric environments, the dielectric constants and the radius of nanoshell core respectively. In addition, the separation distances, the distribution of electrical field intensity, the incident directions and its polarizations are also investigated. The study is useful to broaden the application scopes of Raman spectroscopy and nano-optics

Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No-Analog Future for California Birds?

By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages

The Relative Importance of Agricultural and Wetland Habitats to Waterbirds in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta of California

Biodiversity loss from agricultural intensification underscores the urgent need for science-based conservation strategies to enhance the value of agro-ecosystems for birds and other wildlife. California’s Central Valley, which has lost over 90% of its historical wetlands and currently is dominated by agriculture, still supports waterbird populations of continental importance. A better understanding of how waterbirds use available habitat is particularly needed in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, an ecosystem under threat. From 2013 to 2015, we studied waterbird habitat associations in the Delta during fall migration and winter by conducting diurnal counts at random locations in key waterbird habitats throughout the Delta. Waterbird use of cover types (agricultural crops and managed wetlands) varied substantially among waterbird groups, by season, and among geographic sub-regions of the Delta. Overall, wetlands were particularly important to waterbirds in fall. In winter, wetlands and flooded rice and corn were important to many waterbird groups, and non-flooded corn and irrigated pasture to geese and cranes. The factors that influenced waterbird abundance and distribution also varied substantially among groups and differed at various geographic scales. In both seasons, most groups had a positive association at the field level with flooded ground and open water, and a negative association with vegetation. Given the great uncertainty in the future extent and pace of habitat loss and degradation in the Delta, prioritizing the conservation actions needed to maintain robust waterbird populations in this region is urgent. For the Delta to retain its importance to waterbirds, a mosaic of wetlands and wildlife-friendly crops that accounts for the value of the surrounding landscape must be maintained. This includes restoring additional wetlands and maintaining corn, rice, alfalfa, and irrigated pasture, and ensuring that a substantial portion of corn and rice is flooded in winter.

Priority Bird Conservation Areas in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

Conserving bird populations is a key goal for management of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta ecosystem and is likely to have effects well beyond its boundaries. To inform bird- conservation strategies, we identified Priority Bird Conservation Areas for riparian landbirds and waterbirds in the Delta, defined as the most valuable 5% of the landscape for each group. We synthesized data from 2,547 surveys for riparian landbirds and 7,820 surveys for waterbirds to develop predictive distribution models, which then informed spatial prioritization analyses. We identified a total of 26,019 ha that are a high priority for conserving riparian landbirds, waterbirds, or both, representing the most important places in the Delta to protect and manage, as well as strategic areas where adjacent restoration could expand valuable habitat. These Priority Bird Conservation Areas include the Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area, Cosumnes River Preserve, Stone Lakes National Wildlife Refuge, and bufferlands that surround the Sacramento County Regional Sanitation District. However, we also found that over 60% of the Priority Bird Conservation Areas are not currently protected, indicating a vulnerability to changes in land cover or land use. We recommend advancing strategies for bird conservation in the Delta by developing more specific objectives and priorities, extending these analyses to include other bird species, and planning to mitigate the loss of Priority Bird Conservation Areas where they are most vulnerable to land cover change. The predictive models and analysis framework we developed represent the current state of the science on areas important to bird conservation, while also providing a foundation for an evolving bird-conservation strategy that reflects the Delta’s continuously evolving knowledge base and landscape