Evaluating Michigan's community hospital access: spatial methods for decision support

BACKGROUND: Community hospital placement is dictated by a diverse set of geographical factors and historical contingency. In the summer of 2004, a multi-organizational committee headed by the State of Michigan's Department of Community Health approached the authors of this paper with questions about how spatial analyses might be employed to develop a revised community hospital approval procedure. Three objectives were set. First, the committee needed visualizations of both the spatial pattern of Michigan's population and its 139 community hospitals. Second, the committee required a clear, defensible assessment methodology to quantify access to existing hospitals statewide, taking into account factors such as distance to nearest hospital and road network density to estimate travel time. Third, the committee wanted to contrast the spatial distribution of existing community hospitals with a theoretical configuration that best met statewide demand. This paper presents our efforts to first describe the distribution of Michigan's current community hospital pattern and its people, and second, develop two models, access-based and demand-based, to identify areas with inadequate access to existing hospitals. RESULTS: Using the product from the access-based model and contiguity and population criteria, two areas were identified as being "under-served." The lower area, located north/northeast of Detroit, contained the greater total land area and population of the two areas. The upper area was centered north of Grand Rapids. A demand-based model was applied to evaluate the existing facility arrangement by allocating daily bed demand in each ZIP code to the closest facility. We found 1,887 beds per day were demanded by ZIP centroids more than 16.1 kilometers from the nearest existing hospital. This represented 12.7% of the average statewide daily bed demand. If a 32.3 kilometer radius was employed, unmet demand dropped to 160 beds per day (1.1%). CONCLUSION: Both modeling approaches enable policymakers to identify under-served areas. Ultimately this paper is concerned with the intersection of spatial analysis and policymaking. Using the best scientific practice to identify locations of under-served populations based on many factors provides policymakers with a powerful tool for making good decisions

A methodology for projecting hospital bed need: a Michigan case study

Michigan's Department of Community Health (MDCH) is responsible for managing hospitals through the utilization of a Certificate of Need (CON) Commission. Regulation is achieved by limiting the number of beds a hospital can use for inpatient services. MDCH assigns hospitals to service areas and sub areas by use patterns. Hospital beds are then assigned within these Hospital Service Areas and Facility Sub Areas. The determination of the number of hospital beds a facility subarea is authorized to hold, called bed need, is defined in the Michigan Hospital Standards and published by the CON Commission and MDCH. These standards vaguely define a methodology for calculating hospital bed need for a projection year, five years ahead of the base year (defined as the most recent year for which patient data have been published by the Michigan Hospital Association). MDCH approached the authors and requested a reformulation of the process. Here we present a comprehensive guide and associated code as interpreted from the hospital standards with results from the 2011 projection year. Additionally, we discuss methodologies for other states and compare them to Michigan's Bed Need methodology

Geostatistics for conflation and accuracy assessment of digital elevation models

A geostatistical methodology is proposed for integrating elevation estimates derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) and elevation measurements of higher accuracy, e.g., elevation spot heights. The sparse elevation measurements (hard data) and the abundant DEM-reported elevations (soft data) are employed for modeling the unknown higher accuracy (reference) elevation surface in a way that properly reflects the relative reliability of the two sources of information. Stochastic conditional simulation is performed for generating alternative, equiprobable images (numerical models) of the unknown reference elevation surface using both hard and soft data. These numerical models reproduce the hard elevation data at their measurement locations, and a set of auto and crosscovariance models quantifying spatial correlation between data of the two sources of information at various spatial scales. From this set of alternative representations of the reference elevation, the probability that the unknown reference value is greater than that reported at each node in the DEM is determined. Joint uncertainty associated with spatial features observed in the DEM, e.g. the probability for an entire ridge existing, is also modeled from this set of alternative images. A case study illustrating the proposed conflation procedure is presented for a portion of a USGS one-degree DEM. It is suggested that maps of local probabilities for over or underestimation of the unknown reference elevation values from those reported in the DEM, and joint probability values attached to different spatial features, be provided to DEM users in addition to traditionally reported summary statistics used to quantify DEM accuracy. Such a metadata element would be a valuable tool for subsequent decision-making processes that are based on the DEM elevation surface, or for targeting areas where more accurate elevation measurements are required. © 1999 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Using floating catchment area (FCA) metrics to predict health care utilization patterns

Abstract Background Floating Catchment Area (FCA) metrics provide a comprehensive measure of potential spatial accessibility to health care services and are often used to identify geographic disparities in health care access. An unexplored aspect of FCA metrics is whether they can be useful in predicting where people actually seek care. This research addresses this question by examining the utility of FCA metrics for predicting patient utilization patterns, the flows of patients from their residences to facilities. Methods Using more than one million inpatient hospital visits in Michigan, we calculated expected utilization patterns from Zip Codes to hospitals using four FCA metrics and two traditional metrics (simple distance and a Huff model) and compared them to observed utilization patterns. Because all of the accessibility metrics rely on the specification of a distance decay function and its associated parameters, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to evaluate their effects on prediction accuracy. Results We found that the Three Step FCA (3SFCA) and Modified Two Step FCA (M2SFCA) were the most effective metrics for predicting utilization patterns, correctly predicting the destination hospital for nearly 74% of hospital visits in Michigan. These two metrics were also the least sensitive to changes to the distance decay functions and parameter settings. Conclusions Overall, this research demonstrates that FCA metrics can provide reasonable predictions of patient utilization patterns and FCA utilization models could be considered as a substitute when utilization pattern data are unavailable

Measuring geographic access to health care: raster and network-based methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Inequalities in geographic access to health care result from the configuration of facilities, population distribution, and the transportation infrastructure. In recent accessibility studies, the traditional distance measure (Euclidean) has been replaced with more plausible measures such as travel distance or time. Both network and raster-based methods are often utilized for estimating travel time in a Geographic Information System. Therefore, exploring the differences in the underlying data models and associated methods and their impact on geographic accessibility estimates is warranted.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examine the assumptions present in population-based travel time models. Conceptual and practical differences between raster and network data models are reviewed, along with methodological implications for service area estimates. Our case study investigates Limited Access Areas defined by Michigan’s Certificate of Need (CON) Program. Geographic accessibility is calculated by identifying the number of people residing more than 30 minutes from an acute care hospital. Both network and raster-based methods are implemented and their results are compared. We also examine sensitivity to changes in travel speed settings and population assignment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In both methods, the areas identified as having limited accessibility were similar in their location, configuration, and shape. However, the number of people identified as having limited accessibility varied substantially between methods. Over all permutations, the raster-based method identified more area and people with limited accessibility. The raster-based method was more sensitive to travel speed settings, while the network-based method was more sensitive to the specific population assignment method employed in Michigan.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Differences between the underlying data models help to explain the variation in results between raster and network-based methods. Considering that the choice of data model/method may substantially alter the outcomes of a geographic accessibility analysis, we advise researchers to use caution in model selection. For policy, we recommend that Michigan adopt the network-based method or reevaluate the travel speed assignment rule in the raster-based method. Additionally, we recommend that the state revisit the population assignment method.</p