Does Television Terrify Tourists? Effects of US Television News on Demand for Tourism in Israel

In this paper we analyze a time series measuring the monthly flow of US tourists to Israel over the period 1997-2006. We pay particular attention to the response of tourists to variations in the intensity the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, drawing a distinction between actual conflict intensity and the intensity with which the conflict is reported in the US television media. We find that different dimensions of the conflict affect tourists in different ways. For some (but not all) dimensions of the conflict, reported intensity matters more than actual intensity

Monetary policy in the Franc zone: Country-level credit policy

This extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been reviewed or edited. The definitive version of this extract may be found in the work Macroeconomic Policy in the Franc Zone edited by D Fielding which can be purchased from www.palgrave.co

Gov-aargh-nance: "Even Criminals Need Law and Order"

We present a theoretical model postulating that the relationship between crime and governance is "hump-shaped" rather than linearly decreasing. State failure, anarchy and a lack of infrastructure are not conducive for the establishment of any business. This includes illegal businesses, as criminals need protection and markets to convert loot into consumables. At the bottom end of the spectrum, therefore, both legal business and criminal gangs benefit from improved governance, especially when this is delivered informally. With significant improvements in formal governance criminal activities decline. We use data from the International Maritime Bureau to create a new dataset on piracy and find strong and consistent support for this non-linear relationship. The occurrence, persistence and intensity of small-scale maritime crime are well approximated by a quadratic relationship with governance quality. Organised crime benefits from corrupt yet effective bureaucrats, and informally governed areas within countries.Governance, Crime, Piracy, Informal Institutions, Law enforcement

GOV-AARGH-NANCE – “EVEN CRIMINALS NEED LAW AND ORDER”

We present a theoretical model postulating that the relationship between crime and governance is “hump-shaped”, rather than linearly decreasing, when criminals need access to markets. State collapse, violent conflict and a lack of infrastructure are not conducive for the establishment of any business, legal or illegal. At the bottom end of the spectrum, therefore, criminal gangs benefit from improved governance, especially when this is delivered informally. With significant improvements in formal governance criminal activities decline. We use data from the International Maritime Bureau to create a new dataset on piracy and find strong and consistent support for this non-linear relationship.Governance; Crime; Piracy; Informal governance; Law enforcement

Gov-aargh-nance - "even criminals need law and order"

We present a theoretical model postulating that the relationship between crime and governance is "hump-shaped" rather than linearly decreasing. State failure, anarchy and a lack of infrastructure are not conducive for the establishment of any business. This includes illegal businesses, as criminals need protection and markets to convert loot into consumables. At the bottom end of the spectrum, therefore, both legal business and criminal gangs benefit from improved governance, especially when this is delivered informally. With significant improvements in formal governance criminal activities decline. We use data from the International Maritime Bureau to create a new dataset on piracy and find strong and consistent support for this non-linear relationship. The occurrence, persistence and intensity of small-scale maritime crime are well approximated by a quadratic relationship with governance quality. Organised crime benefits from corrupt yet effective bureaucrats, and informally governed areas within countries.

Barrgh-gaining with Somali Pirates

Ransoms paid to Somali pirates are drifting upward and negotiation times are increasing, yet there is huge variation in bargaining outcomes across shipowners. We use a unique dataset of 179 Somali hijackings, and an underlying theoretical model of the bargaining process based on detailed interviews with ransom negotiators, to analyze the empirical determinants of ransom amounts and negotiation lengths. We find that ransom amount and negotiation length depend on the observable characteristics of both pirates and ships and on the "reference ransom" established by previous ransom payments for a specific ship type. International naval enforcement efforts have driven up ransom amounts. We also observe a "hump-shape" in ransoms, with relatively low ransoms being paid following both short and very long negotiations, and the highest ransoms paid following intermediate length negotiations

Gov-aargh-nance: "Even Criminals Need Law and Order"

We present a theoretical model postulating that the relationship between crime and governance is "hump-shaped" rather than linearly decreasing. State failure, anarchy and a lack of infrastructure are not conducive for the establishment of any business. This includes illegal businesses, as criminals need protection and markets to convert loot into consumables. At the bottom end of the spectrum, therefore, both legal business and criminal gangs benefit from improved governance, especially when this is delivered informally. With significant improvements in formal governance criminal activities decline. We use data from the International Maritime Bureau to create a new dataset on piracy and find strong and consistent support for this non-linear relationship. The occurrence, persistence and intensity of small-scale maritime crime are well approximated by a quadratic relationship with governance quality. Organised crime benefits from corrupt yet effective bureaucrats, and informally governed areas within countries

Radiocarbon dating and the Naqada relative chronology

The Naqada relative chronology provides the main cultural framework for the Predynastic period of ancient Egypt. It was devised in the late nineteenth century by Flinders Petrie to improve understanding of the prehistoric origins of the Egyptian state. Petrie's approach became widely known and formed the basis for the development of seriation. In this study, we test the reliability of the Naqada relative chronology as a dating tool against all the relevant radiocarbon information. The results show that the main blocks of the relative sequence do form a true chronology, but also indicate that the system is much less reliable at the level of individual phases. We discuss the nature of the discrepancies and the broader influence of the relative chronology on current understanding of Early Egypt

Emulation and technological adaptation in late 18th-century cloisonne-style Chinese painted enamels

Cloisonne-style motifs are rare and enigmatic in Chinese painted enamels because of their distinct technological development at the end of the 18th century. Five late Qianlong to Jiaqing period (1736-1820) Chinese painted enamels with cloisonne-style motifs are investigated using environmental scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Back-scattered electron images and elemental analysis are combined to study the decorative enamelled surface. The compositions of the layers within the enamel, that of the counter enamel and the polychrome decoration on the surface are determined and identified. Fluorine and elevated amounts of calcium were detected, indicating that fluorite was likely used as a raw material. The presence of this mineral, which is typical of Chinese cloisonne, confirms that these objects share both aesthetic and technological relationships.Material Culture Studie

Radiocarbon dating of Early Egyptian pot residues

A number of absolute dating techniques are now used in archaeology, from dendrochronology to a variety of luminescence and radiometric methods.1 However, radiocarbon dating remains the most effective approach for the early historic periods. This is largely because of the levels of precision achievable, but also due to the diversity of materials that can be dated, and the ease with which radiocarbon dates can be connected to specific events in the past. Radiocarbon dating can be employed on all carbon-containing materials that are biogenic in origin. Common sample types include items fashioned from plant material, such as textiles and basketry, and the remains of animal and human tissue. Radiocarbon estimates denote the time elapsed since the antecedent organism ceased exchanging carbon with its environment. For human and animal remains this is invariably taken to be the time of death, and for plants it is most commonly the time at which the material was harvested or felled. With the advent of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) in the 1980s, it became possible to conduct radiocarbon analysis on samples several orders of magnitude smaller than preceding techniques.2 Typically, AMS can produce reliable dates on as little as 10 mg of plant material and just 250 mg of whole bone powder. As a result, AMS accounts for a large proportion of the dates made on archaeological samples. No form of radiocarbon dating can, however, provide direct estimates for the age of lithic or ceramic artefacts. The principle difficulty lies in relating any datable material obtained to the manufacture or use of the object in question. In fact, carbonaceous inclusions in such materials are likely to be of geological age, and therefore beyond the 50,000 year detection limit of the technique. Consequently, there remains a disjunction between radiocarbon results and dates based on ceramic seriation. One possibility at bridging this divide comes from the radiocarbon dating of organic residues adhered to specific ceramic types. This prospect was investigated for Early Egypt by an interdisciplinary research team from the University of Oxford, University College London and Cranfield University