Campus Outbreak! Modeling Seasonal Influenza

This PowerPoint-driven case study follows the progress of three undergraduate students as they attempt to model the rapid spread of an influenza outbreak to determine whether their local newspaper\u27s claim that 40% of the campus has the flu is accurate. The case introduces epidemiological modeling using a base model for a seasonal influenza outbreak written in the NetLogo programmable modeling environment. In class, students develop tests for the various parameters of the model, run simulations, and evaluate the output. The students then explore the impact of influenza control strategies (vaccination, isolation, and antiviral medications), and finish with the question of whether the continuing outbreak on campus could be a pandemic. The case is written at a basic level for a lower-level undergraduate lecture-style class, but can be adapted to upper-level courses as well. The case was piloted in four different microbiology courses. The simulations stimulated active discussion and the content worked well, whether it was used in a pre-nursing microbiology or upper-level immunology class

Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Children Aged <18 Years Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 - COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1-July 25, 2020.

Most reported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children aged <18 years appear to be asymptomatic or mild (1). Less is known about severe COVID-19 illness requiring hospitalization in children. During March 1-July 25, 2020, 576 pediatric COVID-19 cases were reported to the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET), a population-based surveillance system that collects data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in 14 states (2,3). Based on these data, the cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate among children aged <18 years during March 1-July 25, 2020, was 8.0 per 100,000 population, with the highest rate among children aged <2 years (24.8). During March 21-July 25, weekly hospitalization rates steadily increased among children (from 0.1 to 0.4 per 100,000, with a weekly high of 0.7 per 100,000). Overall, Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) and non-Hispanic black (black) children had higher cumulative rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations (16.4 and 10.5 per 100,000, respectively) than did non-Hispanic white (white) children (2.1). Among 208 (36.1%) hospitalized children with complete medical chart reviews, 69 (33.2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU); 12 of 207 (5.8%) required invasive mechanical ventilation, and one patient died during hospitalization. Although the cumulative rate of pediatric COVID-19-associated hospitalization remains low (8.0 per 100,000 population) compared with that among adults (164.5),* weekly rates increased during the surveillance period, and one in three hospitalized children were admitted to the ICU, similar to the proportion among adults. Continued tracking of SARS-CoV-2 infections among children is important to characterize morbidity and mortality. Reinforcement of prevention efforts is essential in congregate settings that serve children, including childcare centers and schools

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Preventing Hospitalization Among Adults Aged ≥65 Years - COVID-NET, 13 States, February-April 2021.

Clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccines currently authorized for emergency use in the United States (Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) indicate that these vaccines have high efficacy against symptomatic disease, including moderate to severe illness (1-3). In addition to clinical trials, real-world assessments of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness are critical in guiding vaccine policy and building vaccine confidence, particularly among populations at higher risk for more severe illness from COVID-19, including older adults. To determine the real-world effectiveness of the three currently authorized COVID-19 vaccines among persons aged ≥65 years during February 1-April 30, 2021, data on 7,280 patients from the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) were analyzed with vaccination coverage data from state immunization information systems (IISs) for the COVID-NET catchment area (approximately 4.8 million persons). Among adults aged 65-74 years, effectiveness of full vaccination in preventing COVID-19-associated hospitalization was 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 94%-98%) for Pfizer-BioNTech, 96% (95% CI = 95%-98%) for Moderna, and 84% (95% CI = 64%-93%) for Janssen vaccine products. Effectiveness of full vaccination in preventing COVID-19-associated hospitalization among adults aged ≥75 years was 91% (95% CI = 87%-94%) for Pfizer-BioNTech, 96% (95% CI = 93%-98%) for Moderna, and 85% (95% CI = 72%-92%) for Janssen vaccine products. COVID-19 vaccines currently authorized in the United States are highly effective in preventing COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in older adults. In light of real-world data demonstrating high effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines among older adults, efforts to increase vaccination coverage in this age group are critical to reducing the risk for COVID-19-related hospitalization