Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Healthcare providers’ acceptance of telemedicine and preference of modalities during COVID-19 pandemics in a low-resource setting: An extended UTAUT model

Background: In almost all lower and lower middle-income countries, the healthcare system is structured in the customary model of in-person or face to face model of care. With the current global COVID-19 pandemics, the usual health care service has been significantly altered in many aspects. Given the fragile health system and high number of immunocompromised populations in lower and lower-middle income countries, the economic impacts of COVID-19 are anticipated to be worse. In such scenarios, technological solutions like, Telemedicine which is defined as the delivery of healthcare service remotely using telecommunication technologies for exchange of medical information, diagnosis, consultation and treatment is critical. The aim of this study was to assess healthcare providers’ acceptance and preferred modality of telemedicine and factors thereof among health professionals working in Ethiopia. Methods: A multi-centric online survey was conducted via social media platforms such as telegram channels, Facebook groups/pages and email during Jul 1- Sep 21, 2020. The questionnaire was adopted from previously validated model in low income setting. Internal consistency of items was assessed using Cronbach alpha (α), composite reliability (CR) and average variance extracted (AVE) to evaluate both discriminant and convergent validity of constructs. The extent of relationship among variables were evaluated by Structural equation modeling (SEM) using SPSS Amos version 23. Results: From the expected 423 responses, 319 (75.4%) participants responded to the survey questionnaire during the data collection period. The majority of participants were male (78.1%), age <30 (76.8%) and had less than five years of work experience (78.1%). The structural model result confirmed the hypothesis “self-efficacy has a significant positive effect on effort expectancy” with a standardized coefficient estimate (β) of 0.76 and p-value <0.001. The result also indicated that self-efficacy, effort expectancy, performance expectancy, facilitating conditions and social influence have a significant direct effect on user’s attitude toward using telemedicine. User’s behavioral intention to use telemedicine was also influenced by effort expectancy and attitude. The model also ruled out that performance expectancy, facilitating conditions and social influence does not directly influence user’s intention to use telemedicine. The squared multiple correlations (r2) value indicated that 57.1% of the variance in attitude toward using telemedicine and 63.6% of the variance in behavioral intention to use telemedicine is explained by the current structural model. Conclusion: This study found that effort expectancy and attitude were significantly predictors of healthcare professionals’ acceptance of telemedicine. Attitude toward using telemedicine systems was also highly influenced by performance expectancy, self-efficacy and facilitating conditions. effort expectancy and attitude were also significant mediators in predicting users’ acceptance of telemedicine. In addition, mHealth approach was the most preferred modality of telemedicine and this opens an opportunity to integrate telemedicine systems in the health system during and post pandemic health services in low-income countries

Non-fatal suicidal behaviour in rural Ethiopia: a cross-sectional facility- and population-based study

Background: Injury related to self-harm is one of the leading causes of global disease burden. As a formative work for a programme to implement comprehensive mental healthcare in a rural district in Ethiopia, we determined the 12-month prevalence of non-fatal suicidal behaviour as well as factors associated with this behaviour to understand the potential burden of the behaviour in the district. Method: Population-based (n = 1485) and facility-based (n = 1014) cross-sectional surveys of adults, using standardised, interview-based measures for suicidality (items on suicide from the Composite International Diagnostic Interview), depressive symptoms (the Patient Health Questionnaire) and alcohol use disorders (Alcohol Use Disorder Investigation Test; AUDIT). Results: The overall 12-month prevalence of non-fatal suicidal behaviour, consisting of suicidal ideation, plan and attempt, was 7.9 % (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) = 6.8 % to 8.9 %). The prevalence was significantly higher in the facility sample (10.3 %) compared with the community sample (6.3 %). The 12-month prevalence of suicide attempt was 4.4 % (95 % CI = 3.6 % to 5.3 %), non-significantly higher among the facility sample (5.4 %) compared with the community sample (3.8 %). Over half of those with suicidal ideation (56.4 %) transitioned from suicidal ideation to suicide attempt. Younger age, harmful use of alcohol and higher depression scores were associated significantly with increased non-fatal suicidal behaviours. The only factor associated with transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempt was high depression score. Only 10.5 % of the sample with suicidal ideation had received any treatment for their suicidal behaviour: 10.8 % of the community sample and 10.2 % of the facility sample. Although help seeking increased with progression from ideation to attempt, there was no statistically significant difference between the groups. Conclusion: Non-fatal suicidal behaviour is an important public health problem in this rural district. A more in-depth understanding of the context of the occurrence of the behaviour, improving access to care and targeting depression and alcohol use disorder are important next steps. The role of other psychosocial factors should also be explored to assist the provision of holistic care

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic