Learning thermodynamically constrained equations of state with uncertainty

Numerical simulations of high energy-density experiments require equation of state (EOS) models that relate a material's thermodynamic state variables -- specifically pressure, volume/density, energy, and temperature. EOS models are typically constructed using a semi-empirical parametric methodology, which assumes a physics-informed functional form with many tunable parameters calibrated using experimental/simulation data. Since there are inherent uncertainties in the calibration data (parametric uncertainty) and the assumed functional EOS form (model uncertainty), it is essential to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve confidence in the EOS predictions. Model uncertainty is challenging for UQ studies since it requires exploring the space of all possible physically consistent functional forms. Thus, it is often neglected in favor of parametric uncertainty, which is easier to quantify without violating thermodynamic laws. This work presents a data-driven machine learning approach to constructing EOS models that naturally captures model uncertainty while satisfying the necessary thermodynamic consistency and stability constraints. We propose a novel framework based on physics-informed Gaussian process regression (GPR) that automatically captures total uncertainty in the EOS and can be jointly trained on both simulation and experimental data sources. A GPR model for the shock Hugoniot is derived and its uncertainties are quantified using the proposed framework. We apply the proposed model to learn the EOS for the diamond solid state of carbon, using both density functional theory data and experimental shock Hugoniot data to train the model and show that the prediction uncertainty reduces by considering the thermodynamic constraints.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Association of Supply Type with Fecal Contamination of Source Water and Household Stored Drinking Water in Developing Countries: A Bivariate Meta-analysis

BackgroundAccess to safe drinking water is essential for health. Monitoring access to drinking water focuses on water supply type at the source, but there is limited evidence on whether quality differences at the source persist in water stored in the household.ObjectivesWe assessed the extent of fecal contamination at the source and in household stored water (HSW) and explored the relationship between contamination at each sampling point and water supply type.MethodsWe performed a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis of 45 studies, identified through a systematic review, that reported either the proportion of samples free of fecal indicator bacteria and/or individual sample bacteria counts for source and HSW, disaggregated by supply type.ResultsWater quality deteriorated substantially between source and stored water. The mean percentage of contaminated samples (noncompliance) at the source was 46% (95% CI: 33, 60%), whereas mean noncompliance in HSW was 75% (95% CI: 64, 84%). Water supply type was significantly associated with noncompliance at the source (p < 0.001) and in HSW (p = 0.03). Source water (OR = 0.2; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) and HSW (OR = 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2, 0.8) from piped supplies had significantly lower odds of contamination compared with non-piped water, potentially due to residual chlorine.ConclusionsPiped water is less likely to be contaminated compared with other water supply types at both the source and in HSW. A focus on upgrading water services to piped supplies may help improve safety, including for those drinking stored water.CitationShields KF, Bain RE, Cronk R, Wright JA, Bartram J. 2015. Association of supply type with fecal contamination of source water and household stored drinking water in developing countries: a bivariate meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect 123:1222–1231; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.140900

Molecular characterization and clinical outcomes of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNENs) harboring PAK4-NAMPT alterations

Background: The mTOR inhibitor, Everolimus (EVE), is FDA-approved for the treatment of advanced PNENs on the basis of delay of progression. The RADIANT-3 trial showed an increase in PFS from 4.6 to 11 months compared to placebo with an ORR of only 5%. Prior studies suggest that targeting the aberrant expression of mTOR regulators p21 activated kinase 4 (PAK4) and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide biosynthesis enzyme nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (NAMPT) in PNENs sensitizes these tumors to EVE. To further qualify these observations, we queried a large real-world dataset of PNENs, characterizing the molecular and immune landscapes, as well as the clinical outcomes associated with aberrant PAK4 and NAMPT expression. Methods: 294 cases of PNENs were analyzed using Next Generation Sequencing (NextSeq) and Whole Exome and Whole Transcriptome Sequencing (NovaSeq) at Caris Life Sciences (Phoenix, AZ). For our analyses, we stratified our study cohort into four groups based on the median expression of PAK4 and NAMPT: PAK4-low/NAMPT-low, PAK4-low/ NAMPT-high, PAK4-high/NAMPT-low and PAK4-high/NAMPT-high. Significance was determined using chi-square, Fisher-Exact or Mann-Whitney U, and p-values were adjusted for multiple comparisons (q , 0.05). Results: High prevalence of mutations in PTEN (10.71% vs 1.18%; p \u3c 0.05, q \u3e 0.05), a tumor suppressor of the mTOR pathway and high expression of genes activated in response to mTOR activation such as SLC2A1 (3.07-fold), PFKP (3.32-fold), SCD (2.70-fold), MVK (2.92-fold) and G6PD (2.58-fold) were observed in PAK4-high/NAMPT-high compared to the PAK4-low/NAMPTlow tumors (all q , 0.05). A congruent enrichment of PI3K/AKT/mTOR and glycolysis pathways by single-sample gene set enrichment analysis was observed in these tumors (all q , 0.05). When querying the immune landscape, we observed enrichment in inflammatory response, IL6/JAK/STAT3, IL2/STAT5 signaling pathways and immune checkpoint genes such as PDCD1 (5.14-fold), CD274 (2.84-fold), PDCD1LG2 (2.44-fold), CD80 (3.00-fold), CD86 (2.82-fold), IDO1 (1.92-fold), LAG3 (3.09-fold), HAVCR2 (2.66-fold) and CTLA4 (4.49-fold) in the PAK4-high/NAMPT-high tumors (all q,0.05). Immune cell infiltration estimates revealed an increase in Neutrophils, NK cells and Tregs in the PAK4-high/NAMPT-high tumors (p \u3c 0.05, q \u3e 0.05). Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that PAK4-high/NAMPT-high PNENs are associated with distinct molecular and immune profiles. While the dual blockade of PAK4 and NAMPT has been reported to enhance the efficacy of EVE in PNENs, whether such a blockade would enhance the efficacy of immunotherapeutics warrants further investigation

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN3044803

Determinants of riverine migration success by Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts from rivers across the UK and Ireland

There is some evidence that the river migration success of Atlantic salmon smolts, on their first migration to sea, varies both spatially and temporally. However, we have only a poor understanding of what may be driving this variation. In this study, we used acoustic telemetry to quantify the spatial and temporal variations in river migration success in Atlantic salmon smolts on their first migration to sea. In total 4120 Atlantic salmon smolts migrating through 22 rivers in Scotland, England, Ireland, and Northern Ireland over multiple years were included in the study. Individuals were defined as successful migrants if detected leaving the river to enter marine waters. The results show significant temporal (up to 4 years) and spatial (river) variations in migration success, with overall between-river migration success varying from 3.4% to 97.0% and between years from 3.4% and 61.0%. Temporal variation in migration success was river specific, with some rivers being more temporally stable (exhibiting little variation between years) than others. Across all rivers and years, individual migration success was predicted positively by body condition and negatively by tag burden. The rate of migration success for a population (migration success standardized to a common river distance [proportion km−1]) was predicted by a number of environmental factors. The proportion of river catchment that comprised wetland and woodland positively predicted migration success, whereas the proportion of grassland and peatland in a catchment negatively predicted the rate of migration success. Although the mechanisms through which these effects may be operating were not directly examined in this study, we discuss some potential routes through which they may occur

Inshore and offshore marine migration pathways of Atlantic salmon post-smolts from multiple rivers in Scotland, England, Northern Ireland and Ireland

The migratory behavior of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) post-smolts in coastal waters is poorly understood. In this collaborative study, 1914 smolts, from 25 rivers, in four countries were tagged with acoustic transmitters during a single seasonal migration. In total, 1105 post-smolts entered the marine study areas and 438 (39.6%) were detected on a network of 414 marine acoustic receivers and an autonomous underwater vehicle. Migration pathways (defined as the shortest distance between two detections) of up to 575 km and over 100 days at sea were described for all 25 populations. Post-smolts from different rivers, as well as individuals from the same river, used different pathways in coastal waters. Although difficult to generalize to all rivers, at least during the year of this study, no tagged post-smolts from rivers draining into the Irish Sea were detected entering the areas of sea between the Hebrides and mainland Scotland, which is associated with a high density of finfish aquaculture. An important outcome of this study is that a high proportion of post-smolts crossed through multiple legislative jurisdictions and boundaries during their migration. This study provides the basis for spatially explicit assessment of the impact risk of coastal pressures on salmon during their first migration to sea

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not 77 been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of 78 SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n=253) or Usual Care 79 (n=324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated