Radiomic markers of intracerebral hemorrhage expansion on non-contrast CT: independent validation and comparison with visual markers

Objective: To devise and validate radiomic signatures of impending hematoma expansion (HE) based on admission non-contrast head computed tomography (CT) of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Methods: Utilizing a large multicentric clinical trial dataset of hypertensive patients with spontaneous supratentorial ICH, we developed signatures predictive of HE in a discovery cohort (n = 449) and confirmed their performance in an independent validation cohort (n = 448). In addition to n = 1,130 radiomic features, n = 6 clinical variables associated with HE, n = 8 previously defined visual markers of HE, the BAT score, and combinations thereof served as candidate variable sets for signatures. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) quantified signatures’ performance. Results: A signature combining select radiomic features and clinical variables attained the highest AUC (95% confidence interval) of 0.67 (0.61–0.72) and 0.64 (0.59–0.70) in the discovery and independent validation cohort, respectively, significantly outperforming the clinical (pdiscovery = 0.02, pvalidation = 0.01) and visual signature (pdiscovery = 0.03, pvalidation = 0.01) as well as the BAT score (pdiscovery < 0.001, pvalidation < 0.001). Adding visual markers to radiomic features failed to improve prediction performance. All signatures were significantly (p < 0.001) correlated with functional outcome at 3-months, underlining their prognostic relevance. Conclusion: Radiomic features of ICH on admission non-contrast head CT can predict impending HE with stable generalizability; and combining radiomic with clinical predictors yielded the highest predictive value. By enabling selective anti-expansion treatment of patients at elevated risk of HE in future clinical trials, the proposed markers may increase therapeutic efficacy, and ultimately improve outcomes

The coronal plane maximum diameter of deep intracerebral hemorrhage predicts functional outcome more accurately than hematoma volume

Background: Among prognostic imaging variables, the hematoma volume on admission computed tomography (CT) has long been considered the strongest predictor of outcome and mortality in intracerebral hemorrhage. Aims: To examine whether different features of hematoma shape are associated with functional outcome in deep intracerebral hemorrhage. Methods: We analyzed 790 patients from the ATACH-2 trial, and 14 shape features were quantified. We calculated Spearman’s Rho to assess the correlation between shape features and three-month modified Rankin scale (mRS) score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to quantify the association between shape features and poor outcome defined as mRS>2 as well as mRS > 3. Results: Among 14 shape features, the maximum intracerebral hemorrhage diameter in the coronal plane was the strongest predictor of functional outcome, with a maximum coronal diameter >∼3.5 cm indicating higher three-month mRS scores. The maximum coronal diameter versus hematoma volume yielded a Rho of 0.40 versus 0.35 (p = 0.006), an AUC[mRS>2] of 0.71 versus 0.68 (p = 0.004), and an AUC[mRS>3] of 0.71 versus 0.69 (p = 0.029). In multiple regression analysis adjusted for known outcome predictors, the maximum coronal diameter was independently associated with three-month mRS (p < 0.001). Conclusions: A coronal-plane maximum diameter measurement offers greater prognostic value in deep intracerebral hemorrhage than hematoma volume. This simple shape metric may expedite assessment of admission head CTs, offer a potential biomarker for hematoma size eligibility criteria in clinical trials, and may substitute volume in prognostic intracerebral hemorrhage scoring systems

The Formation and Evolution of the First Massive Black Holes

The first massive astrophysical black holes likely formed at high redshifts (z>10) at the centers of low mass (~10^6 Msun) dark matter concentrations. These black holes grow by mergers and gas accretion, evolve into the population of bright quasars observed at lower redshifts, and eventually leave the supermassive black hole remnants that are ubiquitous at the centers of galaxies in the nearby universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the formation of the earliest seed black holes are poorly understood. The purpose of this review is threefold: (1) to describe theoretical expectations for the formation and growth of the earliest black holes within the general paradigm of hierarchical cold dark matter cosmologies, (2) to summarize several relevant recent observations that have implications for the formation of the earliest black holes, and (3) to look into the future and assess the power of forthcoming observations to probe the physics of the first active galactic nuclei.Comment: 39 pages, review for "Supermassive Black Holes in the Distant Universe", Ed. A. J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publisher

Accuracy and Reliability of Pallor for Detecting Anaemia: A Hospital-Based Diagnostic Accuracy Study

Anaemia is a common disorder. Most health providers in resource poor settings rely on physical signs to diagnose anaemia. We aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy of pallor for anaemia by using haemoglobin as the reference standard.In May 2007, we enrolled consecutive patients over 12 years of age, able to consent and willing to participate and who had a haemoglobin measurement taken within a day of assessment of clinical pallor from outpatient and medicine inpatient department of a teaching hospital. We did a blind and independent comparison of physical signs (examination of conjunctivae, tongue, palms and nailbed for pallor) and the reference standard (haemoglobin estimation by an electronic cell counter). Diagnostic accuracy was measured by calculating likelihood ratio values and 95% confidence intervals (CI) at different haemoglobin thresholds and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Two observers examined a subset of patients (n = 128) to determine the inter-observer agreement, calculated by kappa statistics. We studied 390 patients (mean age 40.1 [SD 17.08] years); of whom 48% were women. The haemoglobin was <7 g/dL in 8% (95% confidence interval, 5, 10) patients; <9 g/dL in 21% (17, 26) patients and <12 g/dL in 64% (60, 70) patients. Among patients with haemoglobin <7 g/dL, presence of severe tongue pallor yielded a LR of 9.87 (2.81, 34.6) and its absence yielded a LR of 0. The tongue pallor outperformed other pallor sites and was also the best discriminator of anaemia at haemoglobin thresholds of 7 g/dL and 9 g/dL (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC area  = 0.84 [0.77, 0.90] and 0.71[0.64, 0.76]) respectively. The agreement between the two observers for detection of anaemia was poor (kappa values  = 0.07 for conjunctival pallor and 0.20 for tongue pallor).Clinical assessment of pallor can rule out and modestly rule in severe anaemia

Formation of Supermassive Black Holes

Evidence shows that massive black holes reside in most local galaxies. Studies have also established a number of relations between the MBH mass and properties of the host galaxy such as bulge mass and velocity dispersion. These results suggest that central MBHs, while much less massive than the host (~ 0.1%), are linked to the evolution of galactic structure. In hierarchical cosmologies, a single big galaxy today can be traced back to the stage when it was split up in hundreds of smaller components. Did MBH seeds form with the same efficiency in small proto-galaxies, or did their formation had to await the buildup of substantial galaxies with deeper potential wells? I briefly review here some of the physical processes that are conducive to the evolution of the massive black hole population. I will discuss black hole formation processes for `seed' black holes that are likely to place at early cosmic epochs, and possible observational tests of these scenarios.Comment: To appear in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

The Formation of the First Massive Black Holes

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are common in local galactic nuclei, and SMBHs as massive as several billion solar masses already exist at redshift z=6. These earliest SMBHs may grow by the combination of radiation-pressure-limited accretion and mergers of stellar-mass seed BHs, left behind by the first generation of metal-free stars, or may be formed by more rapid direct collapse of gas in rare special environments where dense gas can accumulate without first fragmenting into stars. This chapter offers a review of these two competing scenarios, as well as some more exotic alternative ideas. It also briefly discusses how the different models may be distinguished in the future by observations with JWST, (e)LISA and other instruments.Comment: 47 pages with 306 references; this review is a chapter in "The First Galaxies - Theoretical Predictions and Observational Clues", Springer Astrophysics and Space Science Library, Eds. T. Wiklind, V. Bromm & B. Mobasher, in pres

Rates, risk factors & methods of self harm among minority ethnic groups in the UK: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies suggest that the rates of self harm vary by ethnic group, but the evidence for variation in risk factors has not been synthesised to inform preventive initiatives.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We undertook a systematic literature review of research about self harm that compared at least two ethnic groups in the United Kingdom.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>25 publications from 1765 titles and abstracts met our inclusion criteria. There was higher rate of self harm among South Asian women, compared with South Asian men and White women. In a pooled estimate from two studies, compared to their white counterparts, Asian women were more likely to self harm (Relative Risk 1.4, 95%CI: 1.1 to 1.8, p = 0.005), and Asian men were less likely to self harm (RR 0.5, 95% CI: 0.4 to 0.7, p < 0.001). Some studies concluded that South Asian adults self-harm impulsively in response to life events rather than in association with a psychiatric illness. Studies of adolescents showed similar methods of self harm and interpersonal disputes with parents and friends across ethnic groups. There were few studies of people of Caribbean, African and other minority ethnic groups, few studies took a population based and prospective design and few investigated self harm among prisoners, asylum seekers and refugees.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This review finds some ethnic differences in the nature and presentation of self harm. This argues for ethnic specific preventive actions. However, the literature does not comprehensively cover the UK's diverse ethnic groups.</p

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

HSV-2 Infection of Dendritic Cells Amplifies a Highly Susceptible HIV-1 Cell Target

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) increases the risk of HIV-1 infection and, although several reports describe the interaction between these two viruses, the exact mechanism for this increased susceptibility remains unclear. Dendritic cells (DCs) at the site of entry of HSV-2 and HIV-1 contribute to viral spread in the mucosa. Specialized DCs present in the gut-associated lymphoid tissues produce retinoic acid (RA), an important immunomodulator, able to influence HIV-1 replication and a key mediator of integrin α4β7 on lymphocytes. α4β7 can be engaged by HIV-1 on the cell-surface and CD4+ T cells expressing high levels of this integrin (α4β7high) are particularly susceptible to HIV-1 infection. Herein we provide in-vivo data in macaques showing an increased percentage of α4β7high CD4+ T cells in rectal mucosa, iliac lymph nodes and blood within 6 days of rectal exposure to live (n = 11), but not UV-treated (n = 8), HSV-2. We found that CD11c+ DCs are a major target of HSV-2 infection in in-vitro exposed PBMCs. We determined that immature monocyte-derived DCs (moDCs) express aldehyde dehydrogenase ALDH1A1, an enzyme essential for RA production, which increases upon HSV-2 infection. Moreover, HSV-2-infected moDCs significantly increase α4β7 expression on CD4+ T lymphocytes and HIV-1 infection in DC-T cell mixtures in a RA-dependent manner. Thus, we propose that HSV-2 modulates its microenviroment, influencing DC function, increasing RA production capability and amplifying a α4β7highCD4+ T cells. These factors may play a role in increasing the susceptibility to HIV-1

Long-term outcome of chronic dialysis in children

As the prevalence of children on renal replacement therapy (RRT) increases world wide and such therapy comprises at least 2% of any national dialysis or transplant programme, it is essential that paediatric nephrologists are able to advise families on the possible outcome for their child on dialysis. Most children start dialysis with the expectation that successful renal transplantation is an achievable goal and will provide the best survival and quality of life. However, some will require long-term dialysis or may return intermittently to dialysis during the course of their chronic kidney disease (CKD). This article reviews the available outcome data for children on chronic dialysis as well as extrapolating data from the larger adult dialysis experience to inform our paediatric practice. The multiple factors that may influence outcome, and, particularly, those that can potentially be modified, are discussed