Lions and Prions and Deer Demise

Background: Contagious prion diseases – scrapie of sheep and chronic wasting disease of several species in the deer family – give rise to epidemics that seem capable of compromising host population viability. Despite this prospect, the ecological consequences of prion disease epidemics in natural populations have received little consideration. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using a cohort study design, we found that prion infection dramatically lowered survival of free-ranging adult (.2-year-old) mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus): estimated average life expectancy was 5.2 additional years for uninfected deer but only 1.6 additional years for infected deer. Prion infection also increased nearly fourfold the rate of mountain lions (Puma concolor) preying on deer, suggesting that epidemics may alter predator–prey dynamics by facilitating hunting success. Despite selective predation, about one fourth of the adult deer we sampled were infected. High prevalence and low survival of infected deer provided a plausible explanation for the marked decline in this deer population since the 1980s. Conclusion: Remarkably high infection rates sustained in the face of intense predation show that even seemingly complete ecosystems may offer little resistance to the spread and persistence of contagious prion diseases. Moreover, the depression of infected populations may lead to local imbalances in food webs and nutrient cycling in ecosystems in which deer ar

Model selection statistics and hazard ratio estimates for influences of prion infection status (“status”) and sex on mule deer survival at Table Mesa.

<p>Model selection statistics and hazard ratio estimates for influences of prion infection status (“status”) and sex on mule deer survival at Table Mesa.</p

Demographic distribution of prion infection among Table Mesa mule deer.

<p>(A) Age distributions of prion-infected male and female deer as compared to age distributions of apparently uninfected female and male deer sampled, expressed as the proportion of the total number of deer in respective sex×infection status group that occurred in each age class. (One-year-old deer likely were underrepresented in our sample because we avoided capturing them for use in survival comparisons.) (B) Age class-specific estimates of prion infection prevalence for sampled female and male deer. Bars are +95% binomial confidence intervals of estimated proportions.</p

Mule deer survival and population trends at Table Mesa.

<p>(A) Survival of prion-infected and uninfected mule deer, 2005–2007. (B) Mule deer population trends, 1987–2007, reflecting declines in both estimated population size (black diamonds, bars ±95% confidence interval) and mean daily counts (gray diamonds) that coincided with emergence of prion disease during the same period; 1987–2001 data provided by the City of Boulder.</p